Examination for College Football

[Examiner]

When examining the football weekend, depending on how many sports are going on at one time I usually begin my analysis on Wednesday with a simple look at the games being played, soft spots in the schedule, oddball lines, and other interesting items.

Starting with college you have to look out for the early games and this week there are two, I will break these down into more detail as I cover the game from front to back since they are the first ones out of the gate.

So let’s take a sneak peek at the weekend and break it down in three categories, the good, the bad, and the ugly.

The good: These are games with great potential to be excellent football games and most of these will appear on national television and are often games that get a lot of action. This week offers these beauties.

Florida St Vs Miami: This should be the best game on the schedule and Miami was looking forward to it and almost got upset by West Virginia at home.

Florida Vs LSU: Is LSU for real? More importantly is Florida really as bad as they have been playing to include losing at home to Ole Miss? Vegas thinks so as they have put the gators as almost double digit dogs.

Notre Dame Vs Pittsburgh: Real test for Pittsburgh who were highly touted before the season started and have showed up for some games and others they have fallen flat, what Pittsburgh team shows up this week?

Ohio St. Vs Wisconsin: This primetime big ten battle will be the real deal and well worth watching.

The SEC offers a couple of more possible thrillers with Tennessee against Georgia and Arkansas and Auburn

There are plenty of other inviting games but many people try to handicap too many games, a problem I often run into and they drop the ball missing something along the way.

The Bad: This does not mean the games are going to be bad it just means the lines look a little fishy and warrant a closer look.

Florida Vs LSU: as I noted above 9.5 seems a bit steep here but Florida is playing horrible.

Tulane Vs Houston: 1.5 seems small in this one, conference USA is usually a bright spot in my handicapping and I will break this one down farther.

Georgia Vs. Tennessee: Another interesting one as line would dictate just picking the winner, but that is easier said than done.

The Ugly: These are games that have lesser or smaller names schools playing in it but could provide some value if investigated properly.

La Monroe/La Lafayette
Middle Tennessee St/New Mexico St
Western Michigan / Bowling green
Boston College / Temple

Will return with Thursday examination and more notes on the weekend.

eX

 

[pops69]

you posted some great info in the pro group, keep up the good work. P.S. loved your analysis of the colts TB game

 

[Examiner]

Thanks Pops I will be back with tonight's look at sopme of the games

eX

 

[muffinman]

Examiner,
Like the breakdown. Look forward to reading your write-ups. Good week you had last week. It seems to me that you really put your time into your games and you don't just pick games out of a hat(which seems to be what quite a few people around here do). Good luck this week. And keep up the good work...

 

[Examiner]

Record: (at RX)
MLB: 2-3 -.25
NFL: 4-0 +4.00
NCAA:0-0
Top Finding: 1-0 +1.80

Thanks muffinman, when I first started this I would take a side or a total and be very upset when I would watch a game on television or read a recap when the game is over I would miss information that was easily available and kick myself. If I don’t have time to examine a game I don’t put my money on it plain and simple, I work to hard for my money and I am in this to make money.


Colorado St Vs Byu

This game is going to be a good one and I like the fact that ESPN has put Mountain West games on ESPN, many people like myself are from the East Coast and don’t always get a chance to watch these teams and so prime time is a perfect place to showcase teams. First glance at this game and the home team looks delicious as I always try to take a home team under the lights at a pick ‘em or plus points as the spotlight of national television gives a team motivation and homecoming doesn’t hurt either (37-19 in homecoming games). This is not top secret information so the public always will seem to follow suit however the numbers I see have this about even as last check Colorado St backers are at about 56% just over the Mendoza line.

Time to get more information on this and go back to the examination table. The last meeting between these two has Colorado St winning a lopsided game 37-10 so BYU has a revenge opportunity as well. The Cougars are 43-23 (.652) since 1980 in revenge situations and since November seventh the cougars are an outstanding 17-2 in revenge situations, definitely a number that stands out and has some promise.

This game also will pit a 17th ranked BYU defense against a 14th nationally ranked offense from the rams. I also still believe in the old adage that defense wins ballgames and the bottom line is Colorado st’s offense is based on the pass and this is the strong suit of the cougar defense that ranks second in the conference and is tied for 17th nationally with eight interceptions. Jernaro Gilford leads the Cougars in interceptions with two. Seven Cougars have at least one interception...The Cougar defense ranks third in the conference in rush defense (119.3 yards) and second in pass defense (177.5 yards)

On offense it would be an overstatement to say BYU is impressive as it was only last weekend they scored a rushing touchdown for the first time in 30 quarters. The 44-point performance against SD St was just what they needed to get this offense started and the cougars should be able to establish a running game tonight. The edge is in the huge offensive line. The BYU offensive line, which includes three seniors and two freshmen, weighs in at a beefy 1,600 pounds, averaging 320 pounds per man. The O-line will be squaring off against a CSU defensive line (three seniors and one junior) that tips the scales at an average 267.8 per man. The Rams have not played on the road since September 6th and I expect the return of injured QB Matt Berry, which would be a shot in the arm for the BYU offense. BYU is the play tonight.


I also look to move on BYU in the first half as emotions will be running high early in anticipation of a great homecoming game and the Rams will need some time to adjust to not being on the road in weeks.

I will also try to post and get feedback during the game to try to examine the first half in hopes of finding a second half play.

eX

 

[Examiner]

More Study Notes:

Colorado State makes its 1st of back-to-back appearances on ESPN2 on Thursday night this week at BYU. Colorado State has played on Thursday night 12 times during Sonny Lubick’s career as head coach of the Rams. Colorado State has a 7-5 record in those 12 games: 6-1 at home, 1-4 on the road.

BYU leads the series, 32-26-3 in 61 previous games. BYU has won 18 of 20 games played in Provo. The home team in the series has won the last 4 times the teams have played

eX

 

[pops69]

also keep in mind that most of the tout services are giving out CSU as there free pick for tonight, people like Teddy(who covers 40% win vs the spread). I almost always bet against these people as it gives me a 10% advantage in the long run. But i do love your analysis, and think the play would either be BYU 1st half or over the total for the game

 

[Examiner]

Pops,

Not sure on the over in this one it just seems too obvious and the public knows it as the I see an overwhelming consensus to the over at almost 80% in favor of the over. You have to keep in mind that BYU may get a returning QB in the lineup and will want to keep a pass rush off of him and may rely on the run to do this. With the edge they have on the line they could set up the run early and often. That will take more time off the clock and allow BYU to control the tempo of the game. The last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with this Ram team. Also the defense of the cougars could put an end to several drives with interceptions and turn what could be a high scoring game into a low one. Using 51 (tonight’s total) as a yardstick the series has gone over this number only twice in the last four meetings and the Rams have only eclipsed this mark twice in the six games they played this year and BYU just twice in the six games they played and not even close in the games they played at Provo.

eX

 

[pops69]

excellent points, one of the guys that i fad on thurs and friday games, just gave me CSU to win the game. leaning toward byu for the 1st half now but still alot of time before kick off

 

[Examiner]

Pleanty of time and that is why the spotlight now turns to Kentucky / SoCo.

eX

 

[Examiner]

This game between South Carolina and Kentucky will be a great one to watch but it was a tough one to examine.

The first half is where I am going to start and the play will be the under 21.5. These teams are both off a bye and will take a little bit to get back into the swing of things tonight. Kentucky is also looking for inspired play on defense tonight and will look to shut down the run or more importantly freshman Demetris Summers. Coach Rich Brooks has made a point of focusing on defense and on stopping the run. It’s certainly one of the biggest (challenges) we've faced this year. We've played a couple of teams that could run the ball fairly well and we haven't done as well as I would like to do in stopping the run. I think we've gotten a little better in the last several games, but we still have a ways to go to be able to contain a talented and physical running game." Another thing that was noticed is the similarities between the Florida offense and this offense. "It'll be similar in substance to Florida's offense, from an alignment standpoint. What will be different is the emphasis on the running game - the quarterback running game and the running back running game out of the shotgun vs. all of the passing. They'll throw it, too, and they throw it well, but they have a bigger emphasis on the running game. It's good that we've had two similar styles back-to-back." This will be a plus for the wildcat defense that held Florida to a low point total and will look to do the same tonight. Coach Brooks has also put a lot of pressure on his team to win tonight’s game while South Carolina catches the cats between Tennessee and LSU and very well could be taking the cats lightly tonight.

Kentucky is also a first half play at +4. Four is a great number to get because if Kentucky can just get a FG than South Carolina would have to score twice to cover this number and if this is a defensive posture in the first half this could be tough to do.

I am going to make the under in the game a play as well and look for a controlled tempo game with a backdoor cover by the wildcats. Will also try to add an in game thread with some halftime examinations.

eX

 

[pops69]

i look at this game as a dead under, but not with the in depth analysis you do, but just by watching the way so car play d at home and how they love to control the clock. good luck

 

[Examiner]

Pops,

It doesn't matter how we get the right side as long as we do.

Services for those who are interested.

AAA
3* La Tech
2* Northwestern, Missouri Over,
1.5* Maryland
1* Cal, UAB

Alatex
20* La Tech

Animal
3* Wisconsin, Washington,

ASA
5* Michigan
4* Maryland, Northwestern
3* Akron, Ohio

Atlanta Fixer
Michigan, Okla, Tenn, NC St, Hawaii, Air Force,

Banker Sports
hammer: California

Big Al
5* Tulsa, Kansas St,
Fresno St, Illinois,

California Sports
goy Michigan St,

Tony Diamond
1*NW
3* LA Tech 3* Alabama
5* Hawaii
10* FLA Over

OC Dooley
4* Wisconsin Over, Nevada, NC St,
3* Northwestern
2* Clemson

Dr Bob
Arizona St,
3* Tulsa

EZ Winners
5* Kansas St,
3* Northwestern, Texas Tech,
2* Tennessee,
1* Hawaii,

Jim Feist
GOM-Texas
3* Navy
Total-Illinois/Over
Inner Circle-
Personal Best-Virginia
Platinum-Ark. St

Fletcher
San Diego St 1st Half, Iowa, La Tech, Washington St,
Purdue,

Gold Sheet
1.5 LA Tech
1 Northwestern, TN, Navy, Mid TN St

Gonzo
5* Platinum Tennessee,
5* USC, Minnesota,
4* Kent St, Michigan,

GuruWins
5* Hawaii,

JB Sports
Arizona St,

JT Sneaks
2* Over Kentucky / South Carolina
3* Over BYU/Col St
4* BYU

K&B
Purdue,

LasVegas Sports
Texas Tech, Arz ST, TOP: UAB

Mike Lee
8* Iowa, Cinn, Kan St
6* Va, Navy, Tenn

Lexus Sports
3* Oregon St & Over 53, Washington, USC, Kansas St, Mich

LT Profits
UTEP,

Northcoast
4* Top -- Michigan, Nebraska, Maryland,
3* Ariz St., Texas, Fla Over, Mich St Under,
3.5* Virginia Over,

NSA
20* Nevada
10* Wisconsin, UCLA,
5* Auburn, Kansas St
2* USC

Pointwise
Memphis, Was St, NW, Cincy, Neb TOP: VT, Navy

Raymonds
Outlaw GOY Nevada ML

Right Angle
these are not confirmed
Cal -1 (2 units)
Mich-3 (1 unit)
NCSU -6.5 (1 unit)

SportsGuru
7* Hawaii
3* Texas
2* Louisville, Northwestern, Auburn, Michigan, Rutgers,
1* Tenn/Aub Under 38.5, Akron

SportsUnlimited
Colorado St,

Lenny Stevens
20* Auburn
10* Arizona St
regular: Michigan, Maryland, UCLA,

Touchdown Club
San Jose St,

Underdog
Penn St,

Valley Sports
TCU,

Vegas Vic
Auburn,

Win Report
3* Southern Miss
2* Arizona St, Cal
1* Washington,

Winners Path
Texas, LA TEch, Memphis, Special Tenn Under

WinningPoints
7* KST 7*Ore St 7*Fresno 7* Tulsa
9* GA
10* Midd Tenn

Won Club
GOY Michigan



eX

 

[Examiner]

With 2:00 to go this is an interesting first half and I could see how this game is well on it’s way to giving someone heartburn, both QB’s have looked antsy in the pocket and throwing balls they should be throwing away. When anyone gets a halftime line please post, the earlier the better. Penalties have been a big problem for both teams as well.



eX

 

[Examiner]

Have so co -4.5 O/U 24.5

 

[Examiner]

Top Findings: OVER Second Half So Car/Kty

 

[CAL_BEAR]

Hey EX PamAm has So. Car -3 for 2nd half...

 

[Examiner]

Thanks Cal_Bear but in my humble opinion I think Kentucky is the better play in the second half.

eX

 

[CAL_BEAR]

Thanks EX I have S. Car for the game, so I think I will just see what happens with that.