$600.00 -105 Take #462 Seattle (-5.5)over Green Bay (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
This is a great game to get the NFL season started. This game is a rematch from a couple years ago when the Packers lost on a bad call by the replacement refs on Monday Night Football. They are going to lose again here tonight but it will be by a much bigger margin. Seattle will unveil its Super Bowl banner today. They will have another packed crowd and the boost from the home fans is a huge advantage. The Seahawks have the biggest home field edge in all of football and they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games! The Seahawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games against NFC opponents and 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games overall. That is a 70 percent success rate. They should be favored by more than a touchdown in this one. Most of the public is taking the Packers. But the Seahawks are the best team in football. They will prove it again with another blowout winner here.
This is a great game to get the NFL season started. This game is a rematch from a couple years ago when the Packers lost on a bad call by the replacement refs on Monday Night Football. They are going to lose again here tonight but it will be by a much bigger margin. Seattle will unveil its Super Bowl banner today. They will have another packed crowd and the boost from the home fans is a huge advantage. The Seahawks have the biggest home field edge in all of football and they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games! The Seahawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games against NFC opponents and 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games overall. That is a 70 percent success rate. They should be favored by more than a touchdown in this one. Most of the public is taking the Packers. But the Seahawks are the best team in football. They will prove it again with another blowout winner here.
How Sharps are Betting This Weekend’s NFL
Back for our first full blown look at a regular season NFL weekend. As has been true in the past, we’ll devote a special expanded Friday afternoon report to a study of sharp action in the legal pro football betting markets.
Slightly different in Week One is the fact that the openers went up a long time ago! So, today’s line moves may have been triggered a few weeks ago rather than a few hours ago. But, you will still get a sense of who the Wise Guys have been backing and why.
There are 15 games left after Seattle’s Thursday Night rout of Green Bay. Let’s take the games in schedule rotation order…
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: We’ve had a very big move here since the game first went up at Atlanta -1.5. Not only have we flipped favorites, but New Orleans has been bet all the way up to the magic number of three! The sharps have made it very clear that they are skeptical of Atlanta bouncing back into playoff contention. Remember that home field advantage is worth three points…so the market is telling you that the Saints are a full SIX points better than the Falcons on a neutral field. Some sharp dog action has come in on the three…and the Wise Guys stopped betting the Saints at that threshold. Not much interest on the Over/Under, which has centered around 51.5.
MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS: An opener of St. Louis by 5.5 has fallen down to just 3.5, keyed by the news during the Preseason that Sam Bradford was lost for the season with a knee injury. Well, the bulk of the move was caused by that. Some additional Vikings money has been coming in this week. The Rams are now seen as only slightly better than the Vikings on a neutral field, rather than almost a full field goal better. That same injury caused the Over/Under to drop from 45 to 43. Not only is that a big move…but it jumps out even more in a season where the Wise Guys have almost universally been betting Overs.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Cleveland’s exhibition slate went so poorly in terms of their projected quarterback possibilities that the Steelers have been bet up through the summer from -5 to -6.5. We’re hearing that sharp money would come in on the Browns at +7 because that’s a key number for a defensive dog in a big rivalry game. The Wise Guys liked Pittsburgh at -6 or less. The opening total of 40.5 is up to 41.5. Sources tell us that’s based on the general perception that scoring will go up under the new rules enforcement rather than anything team related.
JACKSONVILLE AT PHILADELPHIA: The sharps surprised even themselves by falling in love with Jacksonville as a value team this summer. That’s led to support on the Jaguars at the opener of +11 and at +10.5. The number has settled on a solid ten as of press time. Sources tell us that the sharps have been impressed with the attitude and effort of the rebuilding Jags. The Over/Under is up a point from 51.5 to 52.5 in what Philadelphia hopes is an up-tempo game.
OAKLAND AT NY JETS: Oakland is now rated as worst in the NFL in many respected Power Ratings assessments because of the switch to rookie quarterback Derek Carr. That announcement pushed the Jets from -5 up to -5.5, and there’s a chance the public will drive the number of to six or higher before kickoffs. Interesting here, because the Wise guys are generally down on Jets quarterback Geno Smith. There might be some anti-Jets smart money coming in on the dog at higher game day prices. Not much interest in the total with such iffy quarterbacks. We’re seeing a low Week One number of 40 at the moment.
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE: Cincinnati is seen as the better team, so the opener went up below a field goal with host Baltimore at -2.5. Sharps preferring the dog noted that favorite money never came in under the key number, so they’ve been investing on Cincinnati at +2.5 and at +2. Note that the Bengals will be a popular teaser choice in two-teamers because a six point move from the +1.5 to +2.5 range covers both the three and the seven. Not a lot of games in the traditional sharp teaser “strike zone” this week. Little interest in the Over/Under so far.
BUFFALO AT CHICAGO: Buffalo is another team that had quarterback issues during the summer, so sharps have been fading the Bills with Chicago at anything under -7. To this point, dog money hasn’t been coming in on Buffalo. That might not happen until a 7.5 is seen after public betting. Sources tell us that the Wise Guys aren’t yet sold on Chicago as a playoff contender, but they definitely see big problems ahead for Buffalo this season. The Over/Under is down a point from 48.5 to 47.5 because of Buffalo’s QB issues.
WASHINGTON AT HOUSTON: The summer has mostly seen a mild tug-of-war between Houston -2.5 and Washington +3. Sharps aren’t really confident of either team right now in terms of making a run at the .500 mark straight up. Through the week, more skepticism of RGIII has emerged in the markets, adding some heft to the Houston side of the equation. This game could sit on the three until kickoff. The Over/Under is down from 46 to 44.5 because RGIII has been moving and throwing so poorly.
TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Huge support for Tennessee here, in what might be the most telling move of the whole first week. Kansas City opened at -6, but is now all the way down to -3! Earlier action had already dropped the six down to Tennessee +4.5. But, late in the week, more skepticism of the Chiefs has emerged and we’re at the key number. Keep monitoring through the weekend to see if there’s a bounce back higher off the three. It hasn’t happened as of press time. Sharps are REALLY down on Kansas City. Not much interest in the total.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI: We seem to have mixed opinion here, as an early surge toward New England at the opener of -3.5 (reaching as high as -5 or -5.5 in outliers) has been falling back because of home underdog money. Sources tell us sharps are concerned about New England’s ability to dominate decent defenses on the road, a lesson they learned last season a few times. Note that even if the Patriots settle in at -4, that means they’re seen as a full touchdown better on a neutral field. Nothing happening on the total. If defensive holding calls had caused a scoring explosion in Preseason, the Patriots and Over would have been much more heavily bet here.
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY: The other dramatic move of the Preseason (besides away from Kansas City and Atlanta) has come here, as we’ve flipped favorites from Carolina -2 several weeks ago to Tampa Bay -2.5 right now. The most recent part of that move was keyed by the news that Cam Newton is playing with a fractured rib. Notice though that the number hasn’t yet moved all the way to the full three. We’re hearing that Carolina +3 would get taken out by sharps…and that Carolina at +2 or +2.5 would trigger teaser bets that moved Carolina up to +8 or +8.5. The total has been bet down from an opener of 39.5 to 38.5 because of Newton’s probable lack of explosiveness.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DALLAS: Throw Dallas on the list of teams that the sharps have no interest in. This number has moved up from SF -3.5 to SF -5 even though the Niners had a few weeks of offensive issues themselves in the Preseason. San Francisco was giving out “fade” signals, yet the Wise Guys still stuck with them here. The total has been bet up from 48 to 52 because the Dallas defense looks to be among the worst in the league again, and because SF has lost some of their intimidation factor on that side of the ball.
INDIANAPOLIS AT DENVER: Even though we’ve only seen a move of a point in the Sunday Night game on NBC…it was a BIG point. Denver opened at -6.5, but has now crashed through the key number of seven and is sitting at -7.5 at press time. The fact that there WASN’T buy back on Indy at +7.5 is telling indeed. Sharps who liked Denver are ecstatic they got in at -6.5 or -7. Potential dog backers are waiting to see if they can get at least +8. Not much interest in the total yet. But, if we see a high scoring afternoon influenced by more calls of defensive holding, then sharps will hit this Over before kickoff (currently seeing 55.5).
NY GIANTS AT DETROIT (Monday Night): We’ve already seen that sharps are skeptical of Washington and Dallas in the NFC East (and they bet against Philadelphia too for that matter). More of the same for the Giants, whose starters struggled badly while trying to learn the West Coast offense. An opener of Detroit -4 is now up to Detroit -6. New York money may not come in until the seven is broached. The total is up though, from 45.5 to 47. That’s on the assumption that incomplete passes from the Giants will help create a longer game with more overall possessions.
SAN DIEGO AT ARIZONA (Monday Night): The final game of the week! And, the game that might have the most betting action of all because we have the potential for a strong tug-of-war in the game that goes off last of all. Arizona -3 is getting market support. San Diego +3.5 is loved by sharps. Sportsbooks have to go with one of those at any given moment…and it’s pretty clear which team’s backers will walk to the window at that time. The percentage power of the three is such that BOTH of those can be seen as sharp plays. Meaning…Arizona cashes more than half the time when the game doesn’t land on the three…but San Diego cashes more than half the time when the three is included. The Over/Under is up from 44 to 44.5.
Back for our first full blown look at a regular season NFL weekend. As has been true in the past, we’ll devote a special expanded Friday afternoon report to a study of sharp action in the legal pro football betting markets.
Slightly different in Week One is the fact that the openers went up a long time ago! So, today’s line moves may have been triggered a few weeks ago rather than a few hours ago. But, you will still get a sense of who the Wise Guys have been backing and why.
There are 15 games left after Seattle’s Thursday Night rout of Green Bay. Let’s take the games in schedule rotation order…
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: We’ve had a very big move here since the game first went up at Atlanta -1.5. Not only have we flipped favorites, but New Orleans has been bet all the way up to the magic number of three! The sharps have made it very clear that they are skeptical of Atlanta bouncing back into playoff contention. Remember that home field advantage is worth three points…so the market is telling you that the Saints are a full SIX points better than the Falcons on a neutral field. Some sharp dog action has come in on the three…and the Wise Guys stopped betting the Saints at that threshold. Not much interest on the Over/Under, which has centered around 51.5.
MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS: An opener of St. Louis by 5.5 has fallen down to just 3.5, keyed by the news during the Preseason that Sam Bradford was lost for the season with a knee injury. Well, the bulk of the move was caused by that. Some additional Vikings money has been coming in this week. The Rams are now seen as only slightly better than the Vikings on a neutral field, rather than almost a full field goal better. That same injury caused the Over/Under to drop from 45 to 43. Not only is that a big move…but it jumps out even more in a season where the Wise Guys have almost universally been betting Overs.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Cleveland’s exhibition slate went so poorly in terms of their projected quarterback possibilities that the Steelers have been bet up through the summer from -5 to -6.5. We’re hearing that sharp money would come in on the Browns at +7 because that’s a key number for a defensive dog in a big rivalry game. The Wise Guys liked Pittsburgh at -6 or less. The opening total of 40.5 is up to 41.5. Sources tell us that’s based on the general perception that scoring will go up under the new rules enforcement rather than anything team related.
JACKSONVILLE AT PHILADELPHIA: The sharps surprised even themselves by falling in love with Jacksonville as a value team this summer. That’s led to support on the Jaguars at the opener of +11 and at +10.5. The number has settled on a solid ten as of press time. Sources tell us that the sharps have been impressed with the attitude and effort of the rebuilding Jags. The Over/Under is up a point from 51.5 to 52.5 in what Philadelphia hopes is an up-tempo game.
OAKLAND AT NY JETS: Oakland is now rated as worst in the NFL in many respected Power Ratings assessments because of the switch to rookie quarterback Derek Carr. That announcement pushed the Jets from -5 up to -5.5, and there’s a chance the public will drive the number of to six or higher before kickoffs. Interesting here, because the Wise guys are generally down on Jets quarterback Geno Smith. There might be some anti-Jets smart money coming in on the dog at higher game day prices. Not much interest in the total with such iffy quarterbacks. We’re seeing a low Week One number of 40 at the moment.
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE: Cincinnati is seen as the better team, so the opener went up below a field goal with host Baltimore at -2.5. Sharps preferring the dog noted that favorite money never came in under the key number, so they’ve been investing on Cincinnati at +2.5 and at +2. Note that the Bengals will be a popular teaser choice in two-teamers because a six point move from the +1.5 to +2.5 range covers both the three and the seven. Not a lot of games in the traditional sharp teaser “strike zone” this week. Little interest in the Over/Under so far.
BUFFALO AT CHICAGO: Buffalo is another team that had quarterback issues during the summer, so sharps have been fading the Bills with Chicago at anything under -7. To this point, dog money hasn’t been coming in on Buffalo. That might not happen until a 7.5 is seen after public betting. Sources tell us that the Wise Guys aren’t yet sold on Chicago as a playoff contender, but they definitely see big problems ahead for Buffalo this season. The Over/Under is down a point from 48.5 to 47.5 because of Buffalo’s QB issues.
WASHINGTON AT HOUSTON: The summer has mostly seen a mild tug-of-war between Houston -2.5 and Washington +3. Sharps aren’t really confident of either team right now in terms of making a run at the .500 mark straight up. Through the week, more skepticism of RGIII has emerged in the markets, adding some heft to the Houston side of the equation. This game could sit on the three until kickoff. The Over/Under is down from 46 to 44.5 because RGIII has been moving and throwing so poorly.
TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Huge support for Tennessee here, in what might be the most telling move of the whole first week. Kansas City opened at -6, but is now all the way down to -3! Earlier action had already dropped the six down to Tennessee +4.5. But, late in the week, more skepticism of the Chiefs has emerged and we’re at the key number. Keep monitoring through the weekend to see if there’s a bounce back higher off the three. It hasn’t happened as of press time. Sharps are REALLY down on Kansas City. Not much interest in the total.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI: We seem to have mixed opinion here, as an early surge toward New England at the opener of -3.5 (reaching as high as -5 or -5.5 in outliers) has been falling back because of home underdog money. Sources tell us sharps are concerned about New England’s ability to dominate decent defenses on the road, a lesson they learned last season a few times. Note that even if the Patriots settle in at -4, that means they’re seen as a full touchdown better on a neutral field. Nothing happening on the total. If defensive holding calls had caused a scoring explosion in Preseason, the Patriots and Over would have been much more heavily bet here.
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY: The other dramatic move of the Preseason (besides away from Kansas City and Atlanta) has come here, as we’ve flipped favorites from Carolina -2 several weeks ago to Tampa Bay -2.5 right now. The most recent part of that move was keyed by the news that Cam Newton is playing with a fractured rib. Notice though that the number hasn’t yet moved all the way to the full three. We’re hearing that Carolina +3 would get taken out by sharps…and that Carolina at +2 or +2.5 would trigger teaser bets that moved Carolina up to +8 or +8.5. The total has been bet down from an opener of 39.5 to 38.5 because of Newton’s probable lack of explosiveness.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DALLAS: Throw Dallas on the list of teams that the sharps have no interest in. This number has moved up from SF -3.5 to SF -5 even though the Niners had a few weeks of offensive issues themselves in the Preseason. San Francisco was giving out “fade” signals, yet the Wise Guys still stuck with them here. The total has been bet up from 48 to 52 because the Dallas defense looks to be among the worst in the league again, and because SF has lost some of their intimidation factor on that side of the ball.
INDIANAPOLIS AT DENVER: Even though we’ve only seen a move of a point in the Sunday Night game on NBC…it was a BIG point. Denver opened at -6.5, but has now crashed through the key number of seven and is sitting at -7.5 at press time. The fact that there WASN’T buy back on Indy at +7.5 is telling indeed. Sharps who liked Denver are ecstatic they got in at -6.5 or -7. Potential dog backers are waiting to see if they can get at least +8. Not much interest in the total yet. But, if we see a high scoring afternoon influenced by more calls of defensive holding, then sharps will hit this Over before kickoff (currently seeing 55.5).
NY GIANTS AT DETROIT (Monday Night): We’ve already seen that sharps are skeptical of Washington and Dallas in the NFC East (and they bet against Philadelphia too for that matter). More of the same for the Giants, whose starters struggled badly while trying to learn the West Coast offense. An opener of Detroit -4 is now up to Detroit -6. New York money may not come in until the seven is broached. The total is up though, from 45.5 to 47. That’s on the assumption that incomplete passes from the Giants will help create a longer game with more overall possessions.
SAN DIEGO AT ARIZONA (Monday Night): The final game of the week! And, the game that might have the most betting action of all because we have the potential for a strong tug-of-war in the game that goes off last of all. Arizona -3 is getting market support. San Diego +3.5 is loved by sharps. Sportsbooks have to go with one of those at any given moment…and it’s pretty clear which team’s backers will walk to the window at that time. The percentage power of the three is such that BOTH of those can be seen as sharp plays. Meaning…Arizona cashes more than half the time when the game doesn’t land on the three…but San Diego cashes more than half the time when the three is included. The Over/Under is up from 44 to 44.5.
My buddy got a promo for docs on half off for a week or something. He choose Eastman for some reason.. Started maybe in NFL week 9 or 10 last yr since then he told me he is down over 30 units in NFL and NCAAF. He is never going to make these units up, just a warning... will be 0-4 today too down 17.6 units
FOOTBALL DAY
you can feel the day ahead of you.....
1st full day is the best....I work out to get the blood going, wife going to make blueberry pancakes , by 10 am all my papers to take note are around me, looking for the 1st TD.....3 tv in the room ,one laptop and one IPAD....ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL.
ope:
you can feel the day ahead of you.....
1st full day is the best....I work out to get the blood going, wife going to make blueberry pancakes , by 10 am all my papers to take note are around me, looking for the 1st TD.....3 tv in the room ,one laptop and one IPAD....ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL.
ope:Bettors Must Adjust to the New NFL
Football, as we know it, is dead. Brute force and physicality are now scolded, rather than rewarded, and sophisticated, pass-first offenses now dictate and dominate the game. The resulting scoring explosion has forever altered the landscape of the sport.
And from its ashes a simulacra of the game I grew up obsessing has risen.
Pro football has “evolved”. And football handicappers and bettors have no choice but to adapt to the contemporary challenges the sport possesses or go broke clinging to The Way Things Were.
Team scoring averages have increased each of the last five years and 2013 was the highest scoring season since the merger. In 1993NFL teams averaged just 18.8 points per game. In 2003 it was 20.8 per game. Andlast year a whopping 23.3 points per game were tallied, the largest spike in three decades.
Various rule changes aimed to increasing scoring and the league’s mass appeal, improving player safety, and shielding ownership from financial liability regarding player health have skewed pro football toward offense and, specifically, the passing game. More passes means more plays per game. More plays mean more possessions. More possessions mean more scoring. And more scoring means this chaotic, unpredictable sport has gotten even more deranged and turbulent.
Because the NFL has changed how we wager on it should change as well. Some pros have had a hard time adjusting after following certain gambling methods for decades. Others, like myself, have been able to modify on the fly. Last year I went 95-58 with my NFL picks, a 62.1 percent success rate, while nearly doubling my clients’ bankrolls. I can’t give away all my tips and tricks – you have to pay for that info! – but here is some analysison how to find your way gambling on the New NFL:
1. Don’t Fear The Spread; Just Pick A Winner
NFL favorites have gone 1283-1210-67 against the spread the past 10 seasons. That’s a 49.5 percent success rate and the five-year (50.1 percent) and three-year averages (50.5)have followed suit. That is ruthless efficiency from sportsbooks and neither the chalk nor the underdog is better than a 50-50 proposition.
That said, the public still overestimates theprecision of NFL oddsmakers. For the past decade the average NFL spread has varied from the actual final score by an average of just over 10 points per game. (Remember that next time some bitter bettor starts spouting conspiracy theories about Vegas after a bet lost by a half-point.) Last year’s differential was no exception andthat’s a positive sign for gamblers. It means the books aren’t necessarily getting better at setting lines. They’re merely relying on the enormous house edge the standard 10 percent vigorishyields.
More encouraging is the fact that over the last 2,600 NFL games the spread has only been a factor 15.9 percent of the time. Over 84 percent of the time the team that wins the game also covers the number. So gamblers obsessing over the spread are doing it wrong. If you can pick the team to win the game outright you should beat the numberat ahealthy clip.
Granted, that’s easier said than done. And an emerging trend in today’s high-flying NFL is that the spread is becoming a slightly larger factor. In 2013 the team that lost the game covered the spread 16.9 percent of the time. That is up from the 10-year average but was actually one of the lowest marks since 2009. In 2012 the spread came into play 18.1 percent of the time and in 2011 a whopping 21 percent. Over the last five years the spread has been a factor in 19.4 percent of 1,293 games.
Prior to the scoring explosion, from 2004 to 2008 the spread only came into play in 12.3 percent of all games. That means if you picked an outright winner you won your bet nearly 90 percent of the time!
Don’t bet on teams you don’t think willwinoutright. Don’t rely on the spread to save your underdog wager. And don’t get scared off a favorite because they are laying 3.5 or 4.5 points, ahead of two key numbers.
2. Home Underdogs Are Lifting Their Legs
It has always been NFL Betting 101: take the home underdog. Any wannabe sharp will opine about the inherent value of home underdogs and rail against the “square” bet on a road favorite. However, in the New NFL taking the points with a home team is now a near-worthless angle.
Home underdogs went just 42-47 against the spread last year. That followed seasons of 43-47 ATS and 43-41 ATS for home puppies and yields a three-year winning percentage of just 49.4. Home underdogs have covered just 48 percent of the time (212-230-13) over the past five seasons.
The home underdog angle may not have been profitable prior to the rule changes but it was at least viable. From 2004 to 2008 home underdogs covered the spread 52.7 percent of the time (205-184-9). That is no more.
However, over the last three years just 10.6 percent of games featuring a home underdog resulted in an outright loss by the host but a win against the spread. That’s a much lower rate than all other NFL games. So if you are thinking about backing the home puppy you may get value putting cash on the moneyline as well.
3. If The Total’s High Then Let It Fly
Last year NFL teams went 138-127 against the total. That’s just a 52.1 win rate for ‘over’ bettors and not enough to show long-term profit.
The books have begun setting totals higher than any other point in league history. In 2013 there were 43 games with a total that closed at 50.0 or higher. That is up from a previous high of 34 in 2012 and double the 21 games with a total of 50 or above in 2011. Totals are now routinely set in the 50’s and within the next two years we may see the first total of 60.0 in league history.
How astronomical are those numbers compared to pre-Super Scoring NFL seasons? In 2010 just six games had a total of 50.0 or higher and in the five years prior there were only a combined 41 such games.
Not only has the frequency of these mega-totals increased but the results have done a 180 as well. From 2005 to 2010 teams went just 19-34 against totals of 50.0 or above. That’s an incredible 64.2 percent success rate for bettors who went against the grain and bet those contests ‘under’. Only once, a 9-3 ‘over’ mark in 2008, would gamblers have failed to turn a season profit by blindly betting those games ‘under’. It was one of the best totals betting systems around.
However, games with a total of 50.0 or higher have actually resulted in expected shootouts the past three years. Teams have gone 54-44 against the total in those contests, good for a 55.1 percent success rate on the ‘over’. If you add in games that closed with a total of 49.5 the mark increases to a fantastic 58.2 success rate on the ‘over’ (71-51). So don’t be afraid to expect points when the books post a total that looks comically high.
There will always be ebbs and flows to NFL betting. And the best handicappers and most successful bettors can roll with the tide. Nothing is easy in this business. But if you stay abreast of changing trends and stick to the core principles of successful sports betting – money management, long-term goals, fundamental betting angles – then NFL betting will continue to be one of the most enjoyable and most lucrative ways that you can earn a buck.
Carpe diem. And good luck.
Football, as we know it, is dead. Brute force and physicality are now scolded, rather than rewarded, and sophisticated, pass-first offenses now dictate and dominate the game. The resulting scoring explosion has forever altered the landscape of the sport.
And from its ashes a simulacra of the game I grew up obsessing has risen.
Pro football has “evolved”. And football handicappers and bettors have no choice but to adapt to the contemporary challenges the sport possesses or go broke clinging to The Way Things Were.
Team scoring averages have increased each of the last five years and 2013 was the highest scoring season since the merger. In 1993NFL teams averaged just 18.8 points per game. In 2003 it was 20.8 per game. Andlast year a whopping 23.3 points per game were tallied, the largest spike in three decades.
Various rule changes aimed to increasing scoring and the league’s mass appeal, improving player safety, and shielding ownership from financial liability regarding player health have skewed pro football toward offense and, specifically, the passing game. More passes means more plays per game. More plays mean more possessions. More possessions mean more scoring. And more scoring means this chaotic, unpredictable sport has gotten even more deranged and turbulent.
Because the NFL has changed how we wager on it should change as well. Some pros have had a hard time adjusting after following certain gambling methods for decades. Others, like myself, have been able to modify on the fly. Last year I went 95-58 with my NFL picks, a 62.1 percent success rate, while nearly doubling my clients’ bankrolls. I can’t give away all my tips and tricks – you have to pay for that info! – but here is some analysison how to find your way gambling on the New NFL:
1. Don’t Fear The Spread; Just Pick A Winner
NFL favorites have gone 1283-1210-67 against the spread the past 10 seasons. That’s a 49.5 percent success rate and the five-year (50.1 percent) and three-year averages (50.5)have followed suit. That is ruthless efficiency from sportsbooks and neither the chalk nor the underdog is better than a 50-50 proposition.
That said, the public still overestimates theprecision of NFL oddsmakers. For the past decade the average NFL spread has varied from the actual final score by an average of just over 10 points per game. (Remember that next time some bitter bettor starts spouting conspiracy theories about Vegas after a bet lost by a half-point.) Last year’s differential was no exception andthat’s a positive sign for gamblers. It means the books aren’t necessarily getting better at setting lines. They’re merely relying on the enormous house edge the standard 10 percent vigorishyields.
More encouraging is the fact that over the last 2,600 NFL games the spread has only been a factor 15.9 percent of the time. Over 84 percent of the time the team that wins the game also covers the number. So gamblers obsessing over the spread are doing it wrong. If you can pick the team to win the game outright you should beat the numberat ahealthy clip.
Granted, that’s easier said than done. And an emerging trend in today’s high-flying NFL is that the spread is becoming a slightly larger factor. In 2013 the team that lost the game covered the spread 16.9 percent of the time. That is up from the 10-year average but was actually one of the lowest marks since 2009. In 2012 the spread came into play 18.1 percent of the time and in 2011 a whopping 21 percent. Over the last five years the spread has been a factor in 19.4 percent of 1,293 games.
Prior to the scoring explosion, from 2004 to 2008 the spread only came into play in 12.3 percent of all games. That means if you picked an outright winner you won your bet nearly 90 percent of the time!
Don’t bet on teams you don’t think willwinoutright. Don’t rely on the spread to save your underdog wager. And don’t get scared off a favorite because they are laying 3.5 or 4.5 points, ahead of two key numbers.
2. Home Underdogs Are Lifting Their Legs
It has always been NFL Betting 101: take the home underdog. Any wannabe sharp will opine about the inherent value of home underdogs and rail against the “square” bet on a road favorite. However, in the New NFL taking the points with a home team is now a near-worthless angle.
Home underdogs went just 42-47 against the spread last year. That followed seasons of 43-47 ATS and 43-41 ATS for home puppies and yields a three-year winning percentage of just 49.4. Home underdogs have covered just 48 percent of the time (212-230-13) over the past five seasons.
The home underdog angle may not have been profitable prior to the rule changes but it was at least viable. From 2004 to 2008 home underdogs covered the spread 52.7 percent of the time (205-184-9). That is no more.
However, over the last three years just 10.6 percent of games featuring a home underdog resulted in an outright loss by the host but a win against the spread. That’s a much lower rate than all other NFL games. So if you are thinking about backing the home puppy you may get value putting cash on the moneyline as well.
3. If The Total’s High Then Let It Fly
Last year NFL teams went 138-127 against the total. That’s just a 52.1 win rate for ‘over’ bettors and not enough to show long-term profit.
The books have begun setting totals higher than any other point in league history. In 2013 there were 43 games with a total that closed at 50.0 or higher. That is up from a previous high of 34 in 2012 and double the 21 games with a total of 50 or above in 2011. Totals are now routinely set in the 50’s and within the next two years we may see the first total of 60.0 in league history.
How astronomical are those numbers compared to pre-Super Scoring NFL seasons? In 2010 just six games had a total of 50.0 or higher and in the five years prior there were only a combined 41 such games.
Not only has the frequency of these mega-totals increased but the results have done a 180 as well. From 2005 to 2010 teams went just 19-34 against totals of 50.0 or above. That’s an incredible 64.2 percent success rate for bettors who went against the grain and bet those contests ‘under’. Only once, a 9-3 ‘over’ mark in 2008, would gamblers have failed to turn a season profit by blindly betting those games ‘under’. It was one of the best totals betting systems around.
However, games with a total of 50.0 or higher have actually resulted in expected shootouts the past three years. Teams have gone 54-44 against the total in those contests, good for a 55.1 percent success rate on the ‘over’. If you add in games that closed with a total of 49.5 the mark increases to a fantastic 58.2 success rate on the ‘over’ (71-51). So don’t be afraid to expect points when the books post a total that looks comically high.
There will always be ebbs and flows to NFL betting. And the best handicappers and most successful bettors can roll with the tide. Nothing is easy in this business. But if you stay abreast of changing trends and stick to the core principles of successful sports betting – money management, long-term goals, fundamental betting angles – then NFL betting will continue to be one of the most enjoyable and most lucrative ways that you can earn a buck.
Carpe diem. And good luck.
$800.00 -105 Take #463 New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
I will take Drew Brees and the Saints in this one. Atlanta has struggled this preseason. Injuries have hurt them on defense. I don't see Atlanta being able to stop Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had a top five defense last season. They brought their best players back and added safety Jarius Byrd. The Saints will be able to slow down the high-scoring Atlanta offense. The Saints have won six of the last seven games in this matchup and they are 5-2 ATS in those games. Home field advantage has not mattered much with the road team winning five of the last nine meetings. I like the Saints to beat down their hated rivals once again.
$2000.00 -110 Take #476 Chicago (-6.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
AND
$600.00 -105 Take 'Under' 47.5 Buffalo at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
This is one of my top plays of the weekend. I like the Bears at home in this one. Marc Trestman has turned this Bears offense completely around and I think they will be even better in his second year. The Bears are more familiar with Trestman's system now after a full season and a full offseason in it. The Bears added Santonio Holmes during the preseason and they have one of the best receiving corps in all of football. The Bills have big problems on their offense. They just signed two new backup quarterbacks, including Kyle Orton. That tells everyone that they don't have a lot of confidence in E.J. Manual. The Bills went just 6-10 in the weaker AFC last year. I do not think they have improved much this offseason with several players gone to injury, trade and free agency. The Bills are tired from playing five preseason games and the first team offense struggled. The Bills are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and the home team has covered the spread four straight times in this series. I like the Bears to win this one big.
$2000.00 -105. Take #468 Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
All the talk this preseason was about Johnny Manziel. Manziel and Brian Hoyer both were bad this preseason and are learning new systems. I think that Pittsburgh will want to send a message to their rival. They have dominated this series and have won 24 of the last 28 meetings going back to 2000. Most of the recent meetings have been blowouts. The Steelers have won by at least 10 points in seven of their last eight wins over the Browns. They won 20-7 and 27-11 in two meetings last year. I think it is going to be more of the same in this one. The Browns are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 Week 1 games. I don't think they will win today with a rookie coach calling his first game. This one is an easy call. Take the Steelers.
$600.00 -105. Take #473 Cincinnati (+2) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
The books moved this game off the 3.0. The sportsbooks do not want to move games off that key number if they don't have to. All the sharp money is going on the Bengals in this one. They have won the division the last two years and are the best team in the AFC North. There is a lot of value on this team here in the underdog role. This Ravens team is not the same as the one that won the Super Bowl two years ago. They have gotten worse. The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last five divisional games and the Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on turf. Cincinnati won't be bothered by the home crowd. They are used to playing in this stadium and should win this game outright. I will not need the points but I will take them. Play Cincinnati.
$400.00 +100 Take #477 Washington (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
I will take the underdog in this game too. This game looks like a toss-up. But I think that Washington is the better team in this one. Getting the points is just the icing on the cake. The Texans won just two games last year. They have a new coach and a new quarterback and neither has proven themselves in the NFL. I do not think that Houston should be favored and had this game closer to a 'pick'. The Texans are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Redskins play in the much tougher NFC East. They are looking for a bounce back year after going 3-13 last season. I think Washington upgraded its coaching, receivers and on defense. They are better this season and are the better team in this game. I will take the points and I see this one being a tight game. But I see the Redskins winning outright here and burying the public.
I will take Drew Brees and the Saints in this one. Atlanta has struggled this preseason. Injuries have hurt them on defense. I don't see Atlanta being able to stop Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had a top five defense last season. They brought their best players back and added safety Jarius Byrd. The Saints will be able to slow down the high-scoring Atlanta offense. The Saints have won six of the last seven games in this matchup and they are 5-2 ATS in those games. Home field advantage has not mattered much with the road team winning five of the last nine meetings. I like the Saints to beat down their hated rivals once again.
$2000.00 -110 Take #476 Chicago (-6.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
AND
$600.00 -105 Take 'Under' 47.5 Buffalo at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
This is one of my top plays of the weekend. I like the Bears at home in this one. Marc Trestman has turned this Bears offense completely around and I think they will be even better in his second year. The Bears are more familiar with Trestman's system now after a full season and a full offseason in it. The Bears added Santonio Holmes during the preseason and they have one of the best receiving corps in all of football. The Bills have big problems on their offense. They just signed two new backup quarterbacks, including Kyle Orton. That tells everyone that they don't have a lot of confidence in E.J. Manual. The Bills went just 6-10 in the weaker AFC last year. I do not think they have improved much this offseason with several players gone to injury, trade and free agency. The Bills are tired from playing five preseason games and the first team offense struggled. The Bills are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and the home team has covered the spread four straight times in this series. I like the Bears to win this one big.
$2000.00 -105. Take #468 Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
All the talk this preseason was about Johnny Manziel. Manziel and Brian Hoyer both were bad this preseason and are learning new systems. I think that Pittsburgh will want to send a message to their rival. They have dominated this series and have won 24 of the last 28 meetings going back to 2000. Most of the recent meetings have been blowouts. The Steelers have won by at least 10 points in seven of their last eight wins over the Browns. They won 20-7 and 27-11 in two meetings last year. I think it is going to be more of the same in this one. The Browns are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 Week 1 games. I don't think they will win today with a rookie coach calling his first game. This one is an easy call. Take the Steelers.
$600.00 -105. Take #473 Cincinnati (+2) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
The books moved this game off the 3.0. The sportsbooks do not want to move games off that key number if they don't have to. All the sharp money is going on the Bengals in this one. They have won the division the last two years and are the best team in the AFC North. There is a lot of value on this team here in the underdog role. This Ravens team is not the same as the one that won the Super Bowl two years ago. They have gotten worse. The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last five divisional games and the Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on turf. Cincinnati won't be bothered by the home crowd. They are used to playing in this stadium and should win this game outright. I will not need the points but I will take them. Play Cincinnati.
$400.00 +100 Take #477 Washington (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
I will take the underdog in this game too. This game looks like a toss-up. But I think that Washington is the better team in this one. Getting the points is just the icing on the cake. The Texans won just two games last year. They have a new coach and a new quarterback and neither has proven themselves in the NFL. I do not think that Houston should be favored and had this game closer to a 'pick'. The Texans are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Redskins play in the much tougher NFC East. They are looking for a bounce back year after going 3-13 last season. I think Washington upgraded its coaching, receivers and on defense. They are better this season and are the better team in this game. I will take the points and I see this one being a tight game. But I see the Redskins winning outright here and burying the public.
