Rutgers at (#25) Fresno State - 4:00 EST - ESPN
Line: Rutgers -3.5
Over/Under: 57.5
JR26's Rutgers Lifetime Record: 25-7 (+14.17 Units)
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Let me start out by saying that anyone who claims to have "insight" into this game leading to a big unit play on either team is completely full of shit.
I'll break this game down in virtually every way I can think of before I head out to Piscataway to start the madness.
5 Bold Statements
1. The Rutgers Home Field Advantage is always a factor, but in this case nowhere near as much as people may think.
Since 2006 Rutgers Stadium has been a tough place to play, and its reputation of being a hostile environment for other teams to play has increased after giant-killing games like (#3) Louisville in '06 and (#2) South Florida in '07. The fans are made up of Giants, Jets, and Eagles fans, and the place does get loud. But lets get serious here, until the 12,000 seat expansion is completed in 2009, Rutgers Stadium still only seats 42,500 people. Normally I would give Rutgers a big advantage in this department, but Fresno State went into Kyle Field last year and gave Texas A&M all they could handle in a 47-45 Triple Overtime loss. Fresno State returns 16 starters on offense and defense from a year ago and shouldn't be overly rattled coming into Piscataway today, but keep in mind they are breaking in a brand new place-kicker.
2. Rutgers Head Coach Greg Schiano, the "Defensive Genius" will not be prepared with a "100% lights out perfect" defensive scheme for Fresno State.
No its not Greg Schiano's fault. While Greg Schiano was being courted by Michigan this past year, Rutgers Offensive Coordinator John McNulty was being courted by Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban to fill his team's Offensive Coordinator vacancy. Like Schiano, McNulty declined, and in a strange twist of fate Saban hired Fresno State Offensive Coordinator Jim McElwain. Fresno State filled their newly vacant spot with inexperienced Doug Nussmeier. With Fresno's practices completed closed off to the public, it is anyone's guess what new formations and schemes the Bulldogs will come out with at Rutgers today. Schiano hints that despite the new wrinkles that are sure to appear, the main Fresno State offensive scheme will still be the same; a smash-mouth Pat Hill power run game. Unfortunately for Rutgers, with Nussmeier's inexperience to the position it has a somewhat adverse effect on Rutgers. Having Schiano in the building with a few rolls of film and 6 months to prepare is usually an overwhelming advantage. Just not today. But expect the highly-touted Head Coach to make the necessary adjustments at halftime that may pay big dividends later in the game, possibly leading to a late QB Tom Brandstater INT. As I just said, Brandstater has a new offensive coordinator, there may be a play that hits early that Fresno State goes back to in a crucial situation later. Except this time Schiano may have the Scarlet Knights and 4-year starting SS Courtney Greene ready.
3. Rutgers may struggle in the run game today, leading to Dave Pasch and Andre Ware go on and on about how Rutgers misses and can't find a replacement for Ray Rice. But on many counts they'll be dead wrong.
Before I ruffle too many feathers, Ray Rice is an unbelievable running back. His passion and talent brought Rutgers to new heights in 2006 and 2007, and he was the main bolt in the machine that manufactured three straight bowl appearances. But if Rutgers struggles on the ground today, don't blame it entirely on the vacancy of Ray Rice. What Rice had in front of him was an offensive line consisting of three All-Big East performers that had started virtually every game since Rice put on a Rutgers uniform in LT Pedro Sosa, Tampa Bay 3rd Round Pick RT Jeremy Zuttah, and LG Mike Fladell. Together these three opened up gaping holes for Rice, and kept QB Mike Teel upright giving up only 0.8 sacks per game on average in 2007. To fill one vacancy Freshman All-American RG Anthony Davis has since moved out to his high-school position of LT. But all reports from camp have stated that the line as whole has yet to gel. The 1st Team offense has had trouble moving the ball on the ground against the 1st Team defense all training camp. Part of that surely should be attributed to the departure of Ray Rice, but in my opinion it is more a lack of holes than anything. In limited time in 2006, RB Kordell Young showed big-play ability when spelling Rice. Young then tore his ACL in the 3rd game of 2007, leaving RB Mason Robinson to successfully fill the void. Young and Robinson seemed able replacements to Rice in '06 and '07, but that was because they were running behind Sosa, Zuttah, and Fladell. Bottom line is even Rice may have struggled behind a rebuilt offensive line in 2008. But a face-off against the low-rated Fresno State run defense may be just what the doctor ordered. Still the questions remain, can they get a first down on that critical 3rd and 1, can they get a first down late in the game with a 3 point lead and 3 minutes left to run the clock out?
4. Mike Teel (when healthy) is a much, much better QB than you think, and yes the 2008 Rutgers passing attack is "that" good.
Since 2006, Mike Teel has been the normal scapegoat for some of the team's misfortunes. What most people are just beginning to realize is that Teel played most of 2007 with a thumb injury on his throwing hand that severely hindered not only throwing the football but even taking the snap from center. After an extended bye week before the season finale at Louisville, Teel was finally able to get the time necessary for his injured thumb to heal. In response, Teel had one of his biggest showings of the season against Louisville. His hot streak continued a month later in Toronto in a 52-30 offensive explosion against Ball State. In his 5th year with the offense, Teel knows it just about as well as Offensive Coordinator John McNulty, an advantage that will bode far better than Fresno State QB Tom Brandstater's comfort level with new Offensive Coordinator Doug Nussmeier. In addition, Rutgers returns a pair of 1,000 WR's in Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, as well as 5'8 speed threat Tim Brown, each of which have been working with Teel over the past 3-4 seasons. Fresno State returns 3/4's of their secondary, but that might not be enough to slow down the Scarlet Knights air attack. If Rutgers is able to establish a running game, Fresno State's defense could be in for a long day.
5. The Rutgers Defense is not as good as you think.
Maybe it is because of Greg Schiano, maybe it is because of the 2006 Louisville game where Rutgers shut down the high-powered Louisville attack for the entire 2nd half, but for some reason the Rutgers defense has been as hyped as Ray Rice over the past two seasons. Nothing could be further from the truth. In losses to Maryland, Connecticut, and West Virginia in 2007, the defense was chopped up time and time again on the ground, coupled with an extreme inability to get off of the field on crucial 3rd downs. In the Louisville game, the defense blew a 35-17 lead in the 4th Quarter. While many point to the Rutgers pass defense as one of the best in the nation due to their pass defense numbers, that number is significantly inflated by the chunk of weak passing teams on the schedule last year like Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State, and Army. Is the Rutgers defense a good defense? Yes. But are they as good as advertised? Not in my opinion. With Fresno State returning 4/5 starters on a strong offensive line, I am very ambivalent on how Rutgers will be able to stop the Fresno State power-run game. With undersized 6'4 250 lb DT Alex Silvestro replacing departed undersized 265 lb DT Eric Foster, I see yet another size mismatch up front that could lead to a big game for the Fresno State RB's.
Final Word
With home field advantage and a healthy Mike Teel, Rutgers should be in prime position to have a big day through the air against a shaky Fresno State defense. But the question marks surrounding the Rutgers Offensive Line cannot be taken too lightly. Failure to sustain a running game against a weak Fresno State run defense that lost 2007 WAC Defensive Player of the Year OLB Marcus Riley could mean a long season in Piscataway. With RB's Mason Robinson and Kordell Young, the talent and big-play ability seem to be there, but how will the duo and the rebuilt offensive line fair if up 27-24 with 3:00 left in the 4th Quarter and the Fresno State defense knowing 3 runs are coming with Rutgers one first down away from the win? How will they fair on a crucial 3rd and 1 at the Rutgers 42 yard line early in the game when a long drive is critical for taking early control in the game? These questions will likely be answered today. Uncertainty in the running game coupled with uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball may lead to Rutgers' downfall in its season opener. But Fresno State has questions of their own on the defensive side of the ball, and brings with them the jet lag from a 2,900 mile trip, the longest for any FBS team this season, as well as the pressure from early media hype regarding the Bulldogs as the next "BCS buster" aiming for a possible undefeated season. Meanwhile, Rutgers has a chip on its shoulder and something to prove after spending the off-season hearing about their "disappointing" 8-5 season in 2007. The spotlight is definitely off of Rutgers and shining squarely on Fresno State, something the Bulldogs have not experienced and may not be ready for.
The Play: NONE - Stay away from this game unless you just simply want to have some money riding on the only game on TV this afternoon.
The Score: Rutgers 26 - Fresno State 24
Predictions
- Rutgers struggles to run the ball consistently for most of the game
- New Rutgers PK San San Te goes 3/4 including what would be the game winner with 6:30 left in the 4th Quarter, while Fresno State's new PK has a rude awakening to a hostile environment and goes 1/3
- Fresno State QB Tom Brandstater throws 2 INT's after running a similar, but still new offense against Greg Schiano's complex defense
- One of Brandstater's INT's comes on Fresno State's final drive, after getting the ball back from Rutgers due to Rutgers' failure to get a first down with 3:00 left, Brandstater drives Fresno State to the Rutgers 45 yard line before being intercepted by Rutgers FS Courtney Greene on a deep-in route for TE Bear Pascoe that had been successful for a first down earlier in the game.
Line: Rutgers -3.5
Over/Under: 57.5
JR26's Rutgers Lifetime Record: 25-7 (+14.17 Units)
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Let me start out by saying that anyone who claims to have "insight" into this game leading to a big unit play on either team is completely full of shit.
I'll break this game down in virtually every way I can think of before I head out to Piscataway to start the madness.
5 Bold Statements
1. The Rutgers Home Field Advantage is always a factor, but in this case nowhere near as much as people may think.
Since 2006 Rutgers Stadium has been a tough place to play, and its reputation of being a hostile environment for other teams to play has increased after giant-killing games like (#3) Louisville in '06 and (#2) South Florida in '07. The fans are made up of Giants, Jets, and Eagles fans, and the place does get loud. But lets get serious here, until the 12,000 seat expansion is completed in 2009, Rutgers Stadium still only seats 42,500 people. Normally I would give Rutgers a big advantage in this department, but Fresno State went into Kyle Field last year and gave Texas A&M all they could handle in a 47-45 Triple Overtime loss. Fresno State returns 16 starters on offense and defense from a year ago and shouldn't be overly rattled coming into Piscataway today, but keep in mind they are breaking in a brand new place-kicker.
2. Rutgers Head Coach Greg Schiano, the "Defensive Genius" will not be prepared with a "100% lights out perfect" defensive scheme for Fresno State.
No its not Greg Schiano's fault. While Greg Schiano was being courted by Michigan this past year, Rutgers Offensive Coordinator John McNulty was being courted by Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban to fill his team's Offensive Coordinator vacancy. Like Schiano, McNulty declined, and in a strange twist of fate Saban hired Fresno State Offensive Coordinator Jim McElwain. Fresno State filled their newly vacant spot with inexperienced Doug Nussmeier. With Fresno's practices completed closed off to the public, it is anyone's guess what new formations and schemes the Bulldogs will come out with at Rutgers today. Schiano hints that despite the new wrinkles that are sure to appear, the main Fresno State offensive scheme will still be the same; a smash-mouth Pat Hill power run game. Unfortunately for Rutgers, with Nussmeier's inexperience to the position it has a somewhat adverse effect on Rutgers. Having Schiano in the building with a few rolls of film and 6 months to prepare is usually an overwhelming advantage. Just not today. But expect the highly-touted Head Coach to make the necessary adjustments at halftime that may pay big dividends later in the game, possibly leading to a late QB Tom Brandstater INT. As I just said, Brandstater has a new offensive coordinator, there may be a play that hits early that Fresno State goes back to in a crucial situation later. Except this time Schiano may have the Scarlet Knights and 4-year starting SS Courtney Greene ready.
3. Rutgers may struggle in the run game today, leading to Dave Pasch and Andre Ware go on and on about how Rutgers misses and can't find a replacement for Ray Rice. But on many counts they'll be dead wrong.
Before I ruffle too many feathers, Ray Rice is an unbelievable running back. His passion and talent brought Rutgers to new heights in 2006 and 2007, and he was the main bolt in the machine that manufactured three straight bowl appearances. But if Rutgers struggles on the ground today, don't blame it entirely on the vacancy of Ray Rice. What Rice had in front of him was an offensive line consisting of three All-Big East performers that had started virtually every game since Rice put on a Rutgers uniform in LT Pedro Sosa, Tampa Bay 3rd Round Pick RT Jeremy Zuttah, and LG Mike Fladell. Together these three opened up gaping holes for Rice, and kept QB Mike Teel upright giving up only 0.8 sacks per game on average in 2007. To fill one vacancy Freshman All-American RG Anthony Davis has since moved out to his high-school position of LT. But all reports from camp have stated that the line as whole has yet to gel. The 1st Team offense has had trouble moving the ball on the ground against the 1st Team defense all training camp. Part of that surely should be attributed to the departure of Ray Rice, but in my opinion it is more a lack of holes than anything. In limited time in 2006, RB Kordell Young showed big-play ability when spelling Rice. Young then tore his ACL in the 3rd game of 2007, leaving RB Mason Robinson to successfully fill the void. Young and Robinson seemed able replacements to Rice in '06 and '07, but that was because they were running behind Sosa, Zuttah, and Fladell. Bottom line is even Rice may have struggled behind a rebuilt offensive line in 2008. But a face-off against the low-rated Fresno State run defense may be just what the doctor ordered. Still the questions remain, can they get a first down on that critical 3rd and 1, can they get a first down late in the game with a 3 point lead and 3 minutes left to run the clock out?
4. Mike Teel (when healthy) is a much, much better QB than you think, and yes the 2008 Rutgers passing attack is "that" good.
Since 2006, Mike Teel has been the normal scapegoat for some of the team's misfortunes. What most people are just beginning to realize is that Teel played most of 2007 with a thumb injury on his throwing hand that severely hindered not only throwing the football but even taking the snap from center. After an extended bye week before the season finale at Louisville, Teel was finally able to get the time necessary for his injured thumb to heal. In response, Teel had one of his biggest showings of the season against Louisville. His hot streak continued a month later in Toronto in a 52-30 offensive explosion against Ball State. In his 5th year with the offense, Teel knows it just about as well as Offensive Coordinator John McNulty, an advantage that will bode far better than Fresno State QB Tom Brandstater's comfort level with new Offensive Coordinator Doug Nussmeier. In addition, Rutgers returns a pair of 1,000 WR's in Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, as well as 5'8 speed threat Tim Brown, each of which have been working with Teel over the past 3-4 seasons. Fresno State returns 3/4's of their secondary, but that might not be enough to slow down the Scarlet Knights air attack. If Rutgers is able to establish a running game, Fresno State's defense could be in for a long day.
5. The Rutgers Defense is not as good as you think.
Maybe it is because of Greg Schiano, maybe it is because of the 2006 Louisville game where Rutgers shut down the high-powered Louisville attack for the entire 2nd half, but for some reason the Rutgers defense has been as hyped as Ray Rice over the past two seasons. Nothing could be further from the truth. In losses to Maryland, Connecticut, and West Virginia in 2007, the defense was chopped up time and time again on the ground, coupled with an extreme inability to get off of the field on crucial 3rd downs. In the Louisville game, the defense blew a 35-17 lead in the 4th Quarter. While many point to the Rutgers pass defense as one of the best in the nation due to their pass defense numbers, that number is significantly inflated by the chunk of weak passing teams on the schedule last year like Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State, and Army. Is the Rutgers defense a good defense? Yes. But are they as good as advertised? Not in my opinion. With Fresno State returning 4/5 starters on a strong offensive line, I am very ambivalent on how Rutgers will be able to stop the Fresno State power-run game. With undersized 6'4 250 lb DT Alex Silvestro replacing departed undersized 265 lb DT Eric Foster, I see yet another size mismatch up front that could lead to a big game for the Fresno State RB's.
Final Word
With home field advantage and a healthy Mike Teel, Rutgers should be in prime position to have a big day through the air against a shaky Fresno State defense. But the question marks surrounding the Rutgers Offensive Line cannot be taken too lightly. Failure to sustain a running game against a weak Fresno State run defense that lost 2007 WAC Defensive Player of the Year OLB Marcus Riley could mean a long season in Piscataway. With RB's Mason Robinson and Kordell Young, the talent and big-play ability seem to be there, but how will the duo and the rebuilt offensive line fair if up 27-24 with 3:00 left in the 4th Quarter and the Fresno State defense knowing 3 runs are coming with Rutgers one first down away from the win? How will they fair on a crucial 3rd and 1 at the Rutgers 42 yard line early in the game when a long drive is critical for taking early control in the game? These questions will likely be answered today. Uncertainty in the running game coupled with uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball may lead to Rutgers' downfall in its season opener. But Fresno State has questions of their own on the defensive side of the ball, and brings with them the jet lag from a 2,900 mile trip, the longest for any FBS team this season, as well as the pressure from early media hype regarding the Bulldogs as the next "BCS buster" aiming for a possible undefeated season. Meanwhile, Rutgers has a chip on its shoulder and something to prove after spending the off-season hearing about their "disappointing" 8-5 season in 2007. The spotlight is definitely off of Rutgers and shining squarely on Fresno State, something the Bulldogs have not experienced and may not be ready for.
The Play: NONE - Stay away from this game unless you just simply want to have some money riding on the only game on TV this afternoon.
The Score: Rutgers 26 - Fresno State 24
Predictions
- Rutgers struggles to run the ball consistently for most of the game
- New Rutgers PK San San Te goes 3/4 including what would be the game winner with 6:30 left in the 4th Quarter, while Fresno State's new PK has a rude awakening to a hostile environment and goes 1/3
- Fresno State QB Tom Brandstater throws 2 INT's after running a similar, but still new offense against Greg Schiano's complex defense
- One of Brandstater's INT's comes on Fresno State's final drive, after getting the ball back from Rutgers due to Rutgers' failure to get a first down with 3:00 left, Brandstater drives Fresno State to the Rutgers 45 yard line before being intercepted by Rutgers FS Courtney Greene on a deep-in route for TE Bear Pascoe that had been successful for a first down earlier in the game.
