StL-MIL
-Greinke starting to turn the corner, three consecutive QS and the Brewers are absolutely sick at home. He's on 4 days rest, which has been the toughest for him over his career. His best WHIP is on that rest, which is a better indicator at times and it's hard to look at W-L record because he was in KC for so long. After getting his head right, he has turned his life/career around and I've been rooting him for a while. That won't cloud my judgment here, but his numbers are great against RH hitters and that is mainly what I'm worried about from the Cards lineup. Berkman is scary, of course, but I'd rather be scared of him than being scared of the Pujols/Holliday/Berkman trio from the better side. He's relatively new to the Cards, only saw them in the I-70 series most likely, and he got hit pretty hard. He hasn't given up a HR and he's been pretty careful with Pujols which I would obviously prefer. Greinke wins 58% of his decisions at home, and his ERA is a half run better when he's got the crowd behind him. When he gets 3+ runs he's 55-26, mainly because of the 30-3 record when getting 6+ but being over .500 when you get between 3 and 5 runs is impressive considering how bad his former team was. The 8-0 win tonight will probably fire up the visitors, but Greinke's 3-2 career record vs. StL, his 3-0 record at Miller Park and his 1-0 record (6ip 0r) with Umpire Andy Fletcher will make it very tough for St. Louis to get a win. They throw Chris Carpenter who has been far below his usual self this year, and he's struggled with two of the most important bats in the Brewers lineup. Weeks is 4/7 against him in his career with 2 HR, Fielder is 5/15 with a dinger and Ryan Braun has a HR as well despite a 3/12 performance. The way the Brewers are playing at home is great, their bullpen and defense has improved from the start of the year and this isn't the same Chris Carpenter. Somehow Carp got smoked in his only outing with Fletcher, 3.1ip 8 er, and the Brewers good bullpen should be well-rested considering the easy game today.
TB-BAL
-Price off a great start in Anaheim, although the Halos can't hit to save their lives right now. It looks like Nick Markakis has had the most success against him (.353) despite being a lefty-lefty matchup, and he was struggling until tonight's 6-RBI performance. I know the Rays have been struggling with the flu in the clubhouse, especially while they were on the road trip to the left coast, but the only remaining problem seems like Matt Joyce who sat tonight's game out. If he's back in there, that adds another lefty for Guthrie to deal with and a guy with power when that was Guthrie's undoing in their matchup this season at Camden Yards. The Rays pen should be okay after only Russell and Sonnanstine saw work tonight (their bad pen), but they have been struggling with their good guys lately besides Farnsworth at the back. Price has thrown 3 QS in a row, plus he's never allowed a HR to anyone active on that roster in 94 AB's, while Guthrie has given up 9 to the Rays in 234 AB's. That translates to the Rays seeing him a lot, and four guys with 20+ AB's against him have hit over .300, the fifth would be Reid Brignac (shocker) but he's only had 19. Guthrie off two straight losses despite a good performance @SEA where he got the loss going 8 innings and giving up 0 ER (3r). He lost against this Rays team two straight starts the second week of May, giving up 2 HR in each contest. He's used his control well only issuing 3 walks, but not being able to get out of innings is his problem. Lefties have hit him better over his career, naturally, but Maddon can use that to his advantage everywhere besides 3B and CF. Guthrie likes the road a bit better, but he's 17-54 when he gets 5 runs or less and I don't see that charity coming from Price. He's on his best rest for ERA and WHIP, but it's his worst for win% and he's 6-9 career vs. TB. He likes the day, but this is at night, and he's got a 5.63 career ERA with umpire Tim Welke, his only start being a 5ip 3er outing. Righties have hit Price a lot better, even though it's only .235, and that puts Scott/Pie/Markakis on an island even with Nick's aforementioned success. Price has been much worse on the road in his career, but he still wins 61% of his decisions and is an amazing 35-7 when he gets 3+ runs. He likes 5 days rest the best, but he's a 76% winner on normal rest and he's 4-1 (2.52) career vs. Baltimore. At Camden Yards, he's 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA, he pitches best with John Jaso who's the better hitting catcher and the lefty that Maddon wants to use against Guthrie, and he's 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA with Welke only allowing a run in each start.
add
Milwaukee ML (-116) vs. St. Louis
Tampa Bay ML (-123) @ Baltimore
leans:
COL o8.5