buddy from another site:
CIN-LAD
-Travis Wood is a nibbler and Gerry Davis has been one of the lowest strike% guys in the majors over the past few seasons. He has been almost unseen by the Dodgers as Aaron Miles has the most ABs against him with six. Matt Kemp has a HR as his only hit in two at bats, Ethier is 2/2 against him. He was good against the Giants in his last start going 8ip with only 2er, but he walked 3 and allowed 11 hits. That should NOT be 2 runs, more like five or six. The start before that he got smacked around by these same Dodgers, 8er in 4.2 with 8 hits and 5 bb. Walks are a big problem for him and Gerry will help him with that. Billingsley, on the other hand, has always done the opposite of what I want. He's great when I have an over, bad when I have an under and he's a guy with a huge lower half that can't handle extremely hot weather because he tires easily. He should be able to hand the mild temperature in SoCal, so I would expect him to win this game setting up a home/under correlation. Chad is off a terrible outing @COL allowing 6er in 4.2 with 13 hits. The time before that he was bad @CIN, 5ip 4er on 8 hits and 3 bb, but his last 4 starts at home have been awesome. Colorado 7ip 1er (11 hits), SF 6ip 3er (4 bb), Arizona 8ip 1r 0er and Chicago 7ip 1er. Rolen (.417) is not alone in his success as Stubbs (4/9), Votto (.368), Gomes (5/8) and Hernandez (4/7) have hit him hard, while Chad's only really had success against Renteria (.083) and Phillips (.182). Lefties have hit him a lot better over his career, but Cincy is right-dominant as they can only throw Fred Lewis/Votto out there and then they don't have anything off the bench for the righty relievers. June is his worst month, but he's consistent no matter what kind of run support he gets and he's 53-11 when he gets at least 3 runs. As he gets to 76 pitches, his walk totals rise and so does his opponent's OBP so if the Reds can make him work they'll have success. Billz likes a schedule as he's been much better on normal rest, and he's 5-2 vs. CIN with a 3.86 ERA. Dodgers Stadium is a much better park for hitters in the daytime, so that helps the over too. The Reds bats will determine how this one goes as I think the Dodgers can get to Wood and you have the park plus the umpire. Billingsley absolutely loves the daytime, though, so that 2.98 career ERA (1.23 WHIP) in the light is something I'm not sure I want to fight when he's somehow 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP with Davis. Go figure...
SF-ARI
-The Giants haven't been hitting, but they did add Pandoval to their lineup tonight and it looks like he put a charge into that lifeless lineup. Collmenter wasn't very good, as he couldn't fool anybody and he only throws 88 max, so it was probably his ineptitude considering there are automatic outs at the 1, 2 and 4 positions. This is a huge game for the Diamondbacks as they're trying to compete for the division crown with the visitors and they're probably going down tonight, the only concern is how good Bumgarner has been away from home (makes no sense). Madison has an awful record but he's the definition of tough-luck, while Joe Saunders has changed from a gas can to a decent pitcher in his recent win streak. Kelly Johnson (.357) has hit him, not as well as his teammate Chris Young (.500) nor Justin Upton (4/6, 1 HR). Meanwhile, Tejada (.400, 2 HR) plus Burrell (3/6), plus Huff (.429) plus Rowand (3/3) have gaudy numbers for a team average of .449 and a .653 OBP. No thanks...
LAA-SEA
-Hernandez is a huge homer ump, which is great for a Mariners team that is in jeopardy of getting swept in a big series against the most consistent division rival this decade. Bedard has struggled with Torii (.360, 2 HR) and Vernon Wells (.345, HR), but he's handled Abreu (.192) and the rest of the lineup is pretty green. I am of the opinion that the Angels can't hit and even their aggressive baserunning can't make up for that because they don't have the speed. We will see Trumbo at first because he can actually hit southpaws. Bedard hasn't had Hernandez since '06, but he's 2/2 in QS with him going 6ip 3er in '04 and 7ip 1r 0er in '06. Hard to use those stats now, but he had 4 walks in 13 innings and that's something he'll need tomorrow. He's been bad against the Angels in his career, 2-5 5.70 ERA, and he loves a ton of rest but he's only on 4 days. No thanks laying juice with that...
BOS-TB
-Red Sox bats finally cooled, a lot because of Shields throwing a shutout but also because of the constant GIDPs when they were threatening. Hellboy has had an unbelievable swing and miss rate despite not being an overpowering guy, which I think will come to an end. He's always composed and I was hoping he hadn't been seen by the Sox as they always struggle against new guys. He is 1-0 against them with a 5.1ip 2er outing when Dice-K threw fastballs down the middle all game long to prove that he needs to pitch on the corners. He refuses to walk people when he has a lead, so he'll give up runs if it gets out of hand. The Sox had 5 XBH in that short outing, but only allowing 2 ER is impressive. Beckett's no stranger to the Rays, but with him comes an easy out in his personal catcher Jason Varitek. Of all people Casey Kotchman hits him at a .375 clip with a HR, Damon has 2 dingers and Longoria (.310) also has a HR off of him. Joyce and Zobrist combine for a 1/16, so two of the engine starters haven't had any luck. Beckett is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA with Rob Drake, only a 1.36 WHIP though. At the Trop he's 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA despite a 1.16 WHIP and that's probably because he doesn't love domes (4.90 career ERA in 21 starts). Against Tampa he's 7-4 with a 3.43 ERA, loves extended rest (on 5 days) and wins when he gets 3+ runs (112-32 career). One nice thing is that the Rays don't score at home, but the Red Sox can do serious damage when angry after the winning streak ends/getting shutout and against the Rays bullpen. Beckett's got 7 consecutive QS, so it looks like it's on Hellboy to keep this one under. Still considering...
BAL-TOR
-The Orioles aren't playing good ball, but they fought tonight and Jake Arrieta continues to fly under the radar at 8-3. He's been seen twice by the Jays, only Patterson has taken him deep (surprisingly) and he's handled the Bautista-Lind duo (1/8, 3 BB). He beat Romero in his last start, where I pushed on the under, but it was all because Romero made a bad pitch to Mark Reynolds and it went for four runs. Vlad has crushed Ricky at .529, while Markakis and Jones are both consistent at .333 while five different O's have taken him deep. Arrieta off two consecutive QS, Romero lost his last one in KC despite an 8-inning CG allowing 3 runs. Romero with Jerry Layne threw 7 innings with 2er and 3bb last year, which I would certainly take with that offense behind him. He's 3-3 with a 3.88 ERA vs. BAL, loves extended rest but on his current 5 he's 6-10 with a 3.73 ERA and his highest WHIP (tied). Ricky's getting a ton of love and respect in the line for a guy that sits 9-24 when he gets less than 6 runs of support, so I'm going to wait to see where this goes as I don't think Arrieta is a bad pitcher and he will nibble with a large K-zone from Layne. Inexplicably, lefties hit Romero better but I hope Showalter doesn't fall for that stat putting Pie in left instead of Scott there with Lee at 1B for defense. J.J. Hardy has been unbelievable lately, but the O's bullpen was used pretty hard tonight and we probably won't see Jim Johnson tomorrow after he went 2 innings and threw 31 pitches.
FLA-PHI
-Double-header is usually good for a Salami under so maybe it will help the two studs in the nightcap. Halladay is the best pitcher in the game, and he's already had a perfect game against the Fish last season, so he should be good. Doc is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA with Jim Wolf, but last year he went 7ip 2er in a win and he's gone deep in every start despite a poor ERA by his standards. Add to that the Fish aren't hitting, and you have Anibal Sanchez who has been amazing this season. He can't get Polanco out (.538, 2 HR from a contact guy), nor Utley (.440). The Phillies look like they're starting to hit, and you can't forget Ryan Howard's power in such a small park. Six of his last 7 starts have been QS, and he had a great start with Wolf last year going 7ip 3h 0r despite getting rocked when he had him in '06. CBP has been his house of horrors sitting 1-5 (7.85), but he's had two great starts including a 6ip 2r outing last season. He hates 5 days rest, and he's on his normal 4 so that's good. His 3.33 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on normal rest is good, plus the fact that he is at his best when he isn't getting a ton of support so that would help an under. He's always been worse on the road, 1.13 higher in ERA and from 1.22 to 1.50 in WHIP, and he's a target for lefties as they hit him much better and that will include Howard/Utley/Victorino/Ibanez/Rollins. May just want to look for a Phillies TT under because if anyone blows it it's Anibal...
PIT-HOU
-Morton has been great against heavy right-handed lineups and I'm not sure there's a better one to face when you're like that than Houston. Bourn and Wallace are the only two lefties he'll see probably, and their bullpen loves to give games away. Pence has struggled (.167) while Lee and Bourn have been good against Morton at .333 and .357 respectively. No one has hit a HR against him in this lineup and he should have something to prove after getting owned by the Mets again. His first start against them yielded 11 hits, this past one 9, yet he's still getting more groundballs than flyballs and that's huge for a pitcher like him. He's off a low pitch count at 81, but if you look at the turnaround he's put together it's amazing when you see him with 5 consecutive QS before that. J.A. Happ is a guy with great stuff who just hasn't been the same this season. He struggled last time out against the Cards, but any lefty will. His team has lost his last 5 starts and 6 of 7, but he's been okay lately with QS in 5 of his last 7. Matt Diaz has crushed him (.583, HR) along with a lot of success for McCutchen (.357, HR). Jones, Tabata and Walker, however, combine for 3/25 with a HR against the formerly-prized lefty. He's 0-1 with a 8.10 ERA allowing 3 ER in 3.1 with Cederstrom, but that was in relief. He loves the day, but is good in the dome sitting with a 5-1 record and a 2.44 ERA. He's 2-2 vs. PIT despite a 2.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He hates 5 days rest, which is where he is. A 4.48 ERA in this situation is more than a run worse than his normal rest and his WHIP is 1.55 here. He's certainly got the stuff, but Cederstrom can have a small zone at times. He wins when he 3+ runs as his record is 20-6 when he gets more than 2, but June has been his worst month. Righties hit him a lot harder than lefties, naturally, so the Pirates should come out as righty-heavy as possible. Morton's never had Cederstrom, and he's 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in 3 starts in Houston. He's a much different pitcher now, and gets a night start which is great because he hates the day. He's 1-3 career vs. HOU, and even with such a terrible start to his career he's 16-9 when he gets 3+ runs. He's best when he gets 6+, so give him a lead and he'll keep it in addition to how well the bullpen pitched tonight. Lefties hit him 71 points higher in BA and their OBP sits 66 points above, but the Astros don't have lefties to hurt him.
TEX-NYY
-Two of the top 3 lineups in the AL in this one, and we got Derek Holland who can get bombed at any time and the same can be said for Nova. Texas should be ready to go after the lopsided loss tonight, definite bullpen concerns for the Yankees and the Rangers probably used their bad pen in mop up duty so they may be okay. Rangers haven't hit Nova at all, sitting .147 in 34 ABs. He's had 2 QS in a row against two weak-hitting teams, but actually twirled a gem in Arlington earlier this year going 7.1 with only an unearned run. It's too hard for one team to get you above ten, so no thanks from right there especially when the Rangers will pull out all the stops to get tomorrow's game with their pen.
add
Pittsburgh ML (+107) @ Houston
CIN-LAD
-Travis Wood is a nibbler and Gerry Davis has been one of the lowest strike% guys in the majors over the past few seasons. He has been almost unseen by the Dodgers as Aaron Miles has the most ABs against him with six. Matt Kemp has a HR as his only hit in two at bats, Ethier is 2/2 against him. He was good against the Giants in his last start going 8ip with only 2er, but he walked 3 and allowed 11 hits. That should NOT be 2 runs, more like five or six. The start before that he got smacked around by these same Dodgers, 8er in 4.2 with 8 hits and 5 bb. Walks are a big problem for him and Gerry will help him with that. Billingsley, on the other hand, has always done the opposite of what I want. He's great when I have an over, bad when I have an under and he's a guy with a huge lower half that can't handle extremely hot weather because he tires easily. He should be able to hand the mild temperature in SoCal, so I would expect him to win this game setting up a home/under correlation. Chad is off a terrible outing @COL allowing 6er in 4.2 with 13 hits. The time before that he was bad @CIN, 5ip 4er on 8 hits and 3 bb, but his last 4 starts at home have been awesome. Colorado 7ip 1er (11 hits), SF 6ip 3er (4 bb), Arizona 8ip 1r 0er and Chicago 7ip 1er. Rolen (.417) is not alone in his success as Stubbs (4/9), Votto (.368), Gomes (5/8) and Hernandez (4/7) have hit him hard, while Chad's only really had success against Renteria (.083) and Phillips (.182). Lefties have hit him a lot better over his career, but Cincy is right-dominant as they can only throw Fred Lewis/Votto out there and then they don't have anything off the bench for the righty relievers. June is his worst month, but he's consistent no matter what kind of run support he gets and he's 53-11 when he gets at least 3 runs. As he gets to 76 pitches, his walk totals rise and so does his opponent's OBP so if the Reds can make him work they'll have success. Billz likes a schedule as he's been much better on normal rest, and he's 5-2 vs. CIN with a 3.86 ERA. Dodgers Stadium is a much better park for hitters in the daytime, so that helps the over too. The Reds bats will determine how this one goes as I think the Dodgers can get to Wood and you have the park plus the umpire. Billingsley absolutely loves the daytime, though, so that 2.98 career ERA (1.23 WHIP) in the light is something I'm not sure I want to fight when he's somehow 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP with Davis. Go figure...
SF-ARI
-The Giants haven't been hitting, but they did add Pandoval to their lineup tonight and it looks like he put a charge into that lifeless lineup. Collmenter wasn't very good, as he couldn't fool anybody and he only throws 88 max, so it was probably his ineptitude considering there are automatic outs at the 1, 2 and 4 positions. This is a huge game for the Diamondbacks as they're trying to compete for the division crown with the visitors and they're probably going down tonight, the only concern is how good Bumgarner has been away from home (makes no sense). Madison has an awful record but he's the definition of tough-luck, while Joe Saunders has changed from a gas can to a decent pitcher in his recent win streak. Kelly Johnson (.357) has hit him, not as well as his teammate Chris Young (.500) nor Justin Upton (4/6, 1 HR). Meanwhile, Tejada (.400, 2 HR) plus Burrell (3/6), plus Huff (.429) plus Rowand (3/3) have gaudy numbers for a team average of .449 and a .653 OBP. No thanks...
LAA-SEA
-Hernandez is a huge homer ump, which is great for a Mariners team that is in jeopardy of getting swept in a big series against the most consistent division rival this decade. Bedard has struggled with Torii (.360, 2 HR) and Vernon Wells (.345, HR), but he's handled Abreu (.192) and the rest of the lineup is pretty green. I am of the opinion that the Angels can't hit and even their aggressive baserunning can't make up for that because they don't have the speed. We will see Trumbo at first because he can actually hit southpaws. Bedard hasn't had Hernandez since '06, but he's 2/2 in QS with him going 6ip 3er in '04 and 7ip 1r 0er in '06. Hard to use those stats now, but he had 4 walks in 13 innings and that's something he'll need tomorrow. He's been bad against the Angels in his career, 2-5 5.70 ERA, and he loves a ton of rest but he's only on 4 days. No thanks laying juice with that...
BOS-TB
-Red Sox bats finally cooled, a lot because of Shields throwing a shutout but also because of the constant GIDPs when they were threatening. Hellboy has had an unbelievable swing and miss rate despite not being an overpowering guy, which I think will come to an end. He's always composed and I was hoping he hadn't been seen by the Sox as they always struggle against new guys. He is 1-0 against them with a 5.1ip 2er outing when Dice-K threw fastballs down the middle all game long to prove that he needs to pitch on the corners. He refuses to walk people when he has a lead, so he'll give up runs if it gets out of hand. The Sox had 5 XBH in that short outing, but only allowing 2 ER is impressive. Beckett's no stranger to the Rays, but with him comes an easy out in his personal catcher Jason Varitek. Of all people Casey Kotchman hits him at a .375 clip with a HR, Damon has 2 dingers and Longoria (.310) also has a HR off of him. Joyce and Zobrist combine for a 1/16, so two of the engine starters haven't had any luck. Beckett is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA with Rob Drake, only a 1.36 WHIP though. At the Trop he's 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA despite a 1.16 WHIP and that's probably because he doesn't love domes (4.90 career ERA in 21 starts). Against Tampa he's 7-4 with a 3.43 ERA, loves extended rest (on 5 days) and wins when he gets 3+ runs (112-32 career). One nice thing is that the Rays don't score at home, but the Red Sox can do serious damage when angry after the winning streak ends/getting shutout and against the Rays bullpen. Beckett's got 7 consecutive QS, so it looks like it's on Hellboy to keep this one under. Still considering...
BAL-TOR
-The Orioles aren't playing good ball, but they fought tonight and Jake Arrieta continues to fly under the radar at 8-3. He's been seen twice by the Jays, only Patterson has taken him deep (surprisingly) and he's handled the Bautista-Lind duo (1/8, 3 BB). He beat Romero in his last start, where I pushed on the under, but it was all because Romero made a bad pitch to Mark Reynolds and it went for four runs. Vlad has crushed Ricky at .529, while Markakis and Jones are both consistent at .333 while five different O's have taken him deep. Arrieta off two consecutive QS, Romero lost his last one in KC despite an 8-inning CG allowing 3 runs. Romero with Jerry Layne threw 7 innings with 2er and 3bb last year, which I would certainly take with that offense behind him. He's 3-3 with a 3.88 ERA vs. BAL, loves extended rest but on his current 5 he's 6-10 with a 3.73 ERA and his highest WHIP (tied). Ricky's getting a ton of love and respect in the line for a guy that sits 9-24 when he gets less than 6 runs of support, so I'm going to wait to see where this goes as I don't think Arrieta is a bad pitcher and he will nibble with a large K-zone from Layne. Inexplicably, lefties hit Romero better but I hope Showalter doesn't fall for that stat putting Pie in left instead of Scott there with Lee at 1B for defense. J.J. Hardy has been unbelievable lately, but the O's bullpen was used pretty hard tonight and we probably won't see Jim Johnson tomorrow after he went 2 innings and threw 31 pitches.
FLA-PHI
-Double-header is usually good for a Salami under so maybe it will help the two studs in the nightcap. Halladay is the best pitcher in the game, and he's already had a perfect game against the Fish last season, so he should be good. Doc is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA with Jim Wolf, but last year he went 7ip 2er in a win and he's gone deep in every start despite a poor ERA by his standards. Add to that the Fish aren't hitting, and you have Anibal Sanchez who has been amazing this season. He can't get Polanco out (.538, 2 HR from a contact guy), nor Utley (.440). The Phillies look like they're starting to hit, and you can't forget Ryan Howard's power in such a small park. Six of his last 7 starts have been QS, and he had a great start with Wolf last year going 7ip 3h 0r despite getting rocked when he had him in '06. CBP has been his house of horrors sitting 1-5 (7.85), but he's had two great starts including a 6ip 2r outing last season. He hates 5 days rest, and he's on his normal 4 so that's good. His 3.33 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on normal rest is good, plus the fact that he is at his best when he isn't getting a ton of support so that would help an under. He's always been worse on the road, 1.13 higher in ERA and from 1.22 to 1.50 in WHIP, and he's a target for lefties as they hit him much better and that will include Howard/Utley/Victorino/Ibanez/Rollins. May just want to look for a Phillies TT under because if anyone blows it it's Anibal...
PIT-HOU
-Morton has been great against heavy right-handed lineups and I'm not sure there's a better one to face when you're like that than Houston. Bourn and Wallace are the only two lefties he'll see probably, and their bullpen loves to give games away. Pence has struggled (.167) while Lee and Bourn have been good against Morton at .333 and .357 respectively. No one has hit a HR against him in this lineup and he should have something to prove after getting owned by the Mets again. His first start against them yielded 11 hits, this past one 9, yet he's still getting more groundballs than flyballs and that's huge for a pitcher like him. He's off a low pitch count at 81, but if you look at the turnaround he's put together it's amazing when you see him with 5 consecutive QS before that. J.A. Happ is a guy with great stuff who just hasn't been the same this season. He struggled last time out against the Cards, but any lefty will. His team has lost his last 5 starts and 6 of 7, but he's been okay lately with QS in 5 of his last 7. Matt Diaz has crushed him (.583, HR) along with a lot of success for McCutchen (.357, HR). Jones, Tabata and Walker, however, combine for 3/25 with a HR against the formerly-prized lefty. He's 0-1 with a 8.10 ERA allowing 3 ER in 3.1 with Cederstrom, but that was in relief. He loves the day, but is good in the dome sitting with a 5-1 record and a 2.44 ERA. He's 2-2 vs. PIT despite a 2.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He hates 5 days rest, which is where he is. A 4.48 ERA in this situation is more than a run worse than his normal rest and his WHIP is 1.55 here. He's certainly got the stuff, but Cederstrom can have a small zone at times. He wins when he 3+ runs as his record is 20-6 when he gets more than 2, but June has been his worst month. Righties hit him a lot harder than lefties, naturally, so the Pirates should come out as righty-heavy as possible. Morton's never had Cederstrom, and he's 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in 3 starts in Houston. He's a much different pitcher now, and gets a night start which is great because he hates the day. He's 1-3 career vs. HOU, and even with such a terrible start to his career he's 16-9 when he gets 3+ runs. He's best when he gets 6+, so give him a lead and he'll keep it in addition to how well the bullpen pitched tonight. Lefties hit him 71 points higher in BA and their OBP sits 66 points above, but the Astros don't have lefties to hurt him.
TEX-NYY
-Two of the top 3 lineups in the AL in this one, and we got Derek Holland who can get bombed at any time and the same can be said for Nova. Texas should be ready to go after the lopsided loss tonight, definite bullpen concerns for the Yankees and the Rangers probably used their bad pen in mop up duty so they may be okay. Rangers haven't hit Nova at all, sitting .147 in 34 ABs. He's had 2 QS in a row against two weak-hitting teams, but actually twirled a gem in Arlington earlier this year going 7.1 with only an unearned run. It's too hard for one team to get you above ten, so no thanks from right there especially when the Rangers will pull out all the stops to get tomorrow's game with their pen.
add
Pittsburgh ML (+107) @ Houston
