This series reminds me of the Marlins/Cubs a couple years back. Everyone is saying there is no way that the Cards can come back and win the series, having to go against Petitte, Oswalt, and Clemens. The same was said that the Marlins had no chance having to go to Chicago and go against both Prior and Wood. Marlins got it done, Cards can do the same. It all starts tonight
spreadbeater said:This series reminds me of the Marlins/Cubs a couple years back. Everyone is saying there is no way that the Cards can come back and win the series, having to go against Petitte, Oswalt, and Clemens. The same was said that the Marlins had no chance having to go to Chicago and go against both Prior and Wood. Marlins got it done, Cards can do the same. It all starts tonight
Yes, that was 1 in 10 scenario. That was in 2003. So give it another 8 years before that happens again.
In the MLB a team with a 3-1 lead has a 52-10 record so a team down 1-3 has an historical probability of 16.1% to come back and win the series.
Teams that are the home team and are down 1-3 are 6-27 in the series, so they have a 18.2% "chance to come" back.
You surely cannot use odds to figure probability. Since odds are not true factors in determaning probability. If they did then they wouldn't move.
But then again history isn't always a great determiner either. But I will use history of things that actually have happened over lines posted by people trying to get your money.
Now that Cards have won game 6 their probabilites have risen to 32.1% overall, 26-55 record in a 7 game seires. Obviously those teams trailing 2-3 were only down 1-3 the times I cited above. As the home team in the last two games it improves their chance slightly to 16-27 (37.2%). Win order does in fact have some bearing on a teams chances to come back, as winning 3 straight it a lot more difficult than just winning 2.
But like I say these are historical results, and are definately not etched in stone to determine who will actually win.
But I do think that Houston has a 75% chane to win one of those last two games.
Teams that are the home team and are down 1-3 are 6-27 in the series, so they have a 18.2% "chance to come" back.
You surely cannot use odds to figure probability. Since odds are not true factors in determaning probability. If they did then they wouldn't move.
But then again history isn't always a great determiner either. But I will use history of things that actually have happened over lines posted by people trying to get your money.
Now that Cards have won game 6 their probabilites have risen to 32.1% overall, 26-55 record in a 7 game seires. Obviously those teams trailing 2-3 were only down 1-3 the times I cited above. As the home team in the last two games it improves their chance slightly to 16-27 (37.2%). Win order does in fact have some bearing on a teams chances to come back, as winning 3 straight it a lot more difficult than just winning 2.
But like I say these are historical results, and are definately not etched in stone to determine who will actually win.
But I do think that Houston has a 75% chane to win one of those last two games.
