Evangeline 4-28-2017

[Prof_Factor]

Evangeline 4-28-2017


r#1 - 5f
#5 3-1 BOGUE BEAR - should be tough.
#1 2-1 GOOD GALLEGA - big horse needs to be able to roll unobstructed.
#7 4-1 A COSTLY PRAYER
... low caliber field of speed types will be drifting all over the place in the end.

r#2 - 6f
#7 5-1 WITCH HUNT
#2 8-1 B B SPECIAL - speed of the speed
#4 9-2 DANNY'S TURBO - trainer stats are no joke
... incredibly wide open.

r#3 - 7f
#4 4-1 BARON'S REBELLION - in easier.
#7 8-1 WEASELLIN THRU - debut was nothing more than a workout. Would not surprise.
#5 5-1 HALO REDDING - Morales aboard.

r#4 - 8f
#8 5-1 KNOCKIT OFF
#5 5-1 GRACE'S BANDIT - Broberg claim

r#5 - 7f
#1 9-5 GLITTER O'PRADO - logical
#8 8-1 FLASHY LYNN
#2 8-1 LEFTHOOFRIGHTLEFT
... tough race to predict if #5 (7-2) MUFFALETTA sets a slow pace with Saenz, and that scenario is very possible.

r#6 - 8f
#6 5-1 SIERRA VICTOR
#10 15-1 KAYNE'SPOTOFGOLD - bomb alert, lone speed threat.
#7 10-1 UNDER AND OVER
#8 3-1 MASCULINO

... rest to follow shortly ....

 

[Saddlesore]

Professor i hope everything is well. Haven't been around lately cause of life ventures. Won't be around this weekend either.
So Good Luck and may the "Horse be with you"

 

[Prof_Factor]

Evangeline 4-28-2017


r#1 - 5f
#5 3-1 BOGUE BEAR - should be tough.
#1 2-1 GOOD GALLEGA - big horse needs to be able to roll unobstructed.
#7 4-1 A COSTLY PRAYER
... low caliber field of speed types will be drifting all over the place in the end.

r#2 - 6f
#7 5-1 WITCH HUNT
#2 8-1 B B SPECIAL - speed of the speed
#4 9-2 DANNY'S TURBO - trainer stats are no joke
... incredibly wide open.

r#3 - 7f
#4 4-1 BARON'S REBELLION - in easier.
#7 8-1 WEASELLIN THRU - debut was nothing more than a workout. Would not surprise.
#5 5-1 HALO REDDING - Morales aboard.

r#4 - 8f
#8 5-1 KNOCKIT OFF
#5 5-1 GRACE'S BANDIT - Broberg claim

r#5 - 7f
#1 9-5 GLITTER O'PRADO - logical
#8 8-1 FLASHY LYNN
#2 8-1 LEFTHOOFRIGHTLEFT
... tough race to predict if #5 (7-2) MUFFALETTA sets a slow pace with Saenz, and that scenario is very possible.

r#6 - 8f
#6 5-1 SIERRA VICTOR
#10 15-1 KAYNE'SPOTOFGOLD - bomb alert, lone speed threat.
#7 10-1 UNDER AND OVER
#8 3-1 MASCULINO

r#7 - 8f
#6 6-1 SET HUT
#5 9-2 ALEX'S TURN
#4 5-2 SAVED AT SEA

r#8 - 5f
#1 5-1 D'BOLDEST
#5 5-1 DIAMOND CUTTER
#8 8-1 OFF CYCLE

r#9 - 7f
#4 4-1 BITTERS 'N BOURBON - logical
#6 15-1 HAWAIIAN CHASE
#9 8-1 LAHAINA LAD - possible if ready
#5 6-1 BITSY'S HALF - improving


Twinspires has 15% Daily Double bonus. We'll key top pick in 1st legs w/ all picks in 2nd leg.
Good luck to all!

 

[Prof_Factor]

Professor i hope everything is well. Haven't been around lately cause of life ventures. Won't be around this weekend either.
So Good Luck and may the "Horse be with you"

Hope everything gets under control for you. Life is a tote. Hope to see you around soon. Best of luck with everything, SS!

 

[Prof_Factor]

_

 

[Prof_Factor]

Saenz lost the 3rd race with our horse going off 4/5.
He clearly road the horse to defeat regulating to last after breaking well.
He knows as well as anyone you can't do that in a paceless race. Especially when his horse IS the speed and considering how EVD has been playing.
Anyways, I've noticed this a lot with Saenz and wasn't going to pick him on a heavy favorite.
He has been losing abnormal amount when on the favorite. In the last month he has won with heavy favs (7/5 or better) only 29%, and
when 3/5 or better only 2 of 5 (40%).
I always watch the top jocks on favs .... it clues you into possible mob presence.
I will make a note to go back and watch all of the replays of heavy favorite losses and see if they were ridden similarly.
No need to speculate in this day and age. We can investigate for ourselves.
Here's a list of races Saenz has lost with 7/5 favs or better over the last 3 months, in case anybody else cares to view for themselves :

2/1/2017 DED race 1 SQUIRTSQUIRT Finished:2nd(1.75) Odds:1.00 Trainer:JEANSONNE_JUSTIN
2/1/2017 DED race 2 SWEEZY Finished:2nd(0.25) Odds:1.50 Trainer:FOSTER_JOSEPH
2/1/2017 DED race 5 THEYANKEEFUSE Finished:2nd(2.25) Odds:0.90 Trainer:BREAUX_SAMUEL
2/3/2017 DED race 4 TIME POCKET Finished:2nd(0.5) Odds:1.10 Trainer:RAMIREZ_EDUARDO
2/8/2017 DED race 9 CRYSTAL BRIDGE Finished:2nd(1.75) Odds:1.30 Trainer:AMOSS_THOMAS
2/9/2017 DED race 1 QUICK COUNT Finished:4th(7.25) Odds:1.00 Trainer:BREAUX_SAMUEL
2/10/2017 DED race 5 POWER WALKER Finished:2nd(0.5) Odds:1.20 Trainer:AMOSS_THOMAS
2/11/2017 DED race 9 JUST KISSING BUCK Finished:5th(7.25) Odds:1.40 Trainer:RAMIREZ_EDUARDO
2/15/2017 DED race 6 SWEEZY Finished:2nd(4.5) Odds:1.10 Trainer:FOSTER_JOSEPH
2/16/2017 DED race 3 TAKE CHARGE REBEL Finished:3rd(3.75) Odds:1.30 Trainer:BREAUX_SAMUEL
2/23/2017 DED race 2 TAYLOR Finished:3rd(1) Odds:0.70 Trainer:SPENCER_RAY
2/25/2017 DED race 2 IN THE NAVY Finished:4th(7.25) Odds:0.70 Trainer:GELNER_SCOTT
3/2/2017 DED race 7 HIT TOP SPEED Finished:4th(2.25) Odds:1.00 Trainer:RAMIREZ_EDUARDO
3/2/2017 DED race 9 CRYSTAL BRIDGE Finished:3rd(6) Odds:0.50 Trainer:AMOSS_THOMAS
3/4/2017 DED race 7 COAST OF LA Finished:2nd(0.5) Odds:0.80 Trainer:RAMIREZ_EDUARDO
3/10/2017 DED race 3 MAC'S HONEY Finished:2nd(0.75) Odds:1.10 Trainer:VANCE_TERRY
3/11/2017 DED race 7 BANDIT FOR TIME Finished:2nd(0.25) Odds:1.00 Trainer:RAMIREZ_EDUARDO
3/11/2017 DED race 8 MAYLA Finished:2nd(1.25) Odds:0.90 Trainer:CALHOUN_W
4/13/2017 EVD race 8 CHINAWOOD (... eased, walked off ...) Finished:7th(29.75) Odds:0.70 Trainer:LEGGIO_FRANK
4/14/2017 EVD race 6 FASTEN Finished:3rd(3.25) Odds:0.50 TrainerEVEREUX_JR_PATRICK
4/15/2017 EVD race 3 E.T.LANE Finished:9th(26.18) Odds:1.40 Trainer:LEGGIO_FRANK
4/20/2017 EVD race 6 FOXY MISS Finished:5th(7) Odds:1.40 Trainer:AVERETT_RONNIE
4/22/2017 EVD race 6 DAY DRINKER Finished:3rd(1.5) Odds:1.30 TrainerEVEREUX_JR_PATRICK
4/22/2017 EVD race 8 SIBLING WAR Finished:3rd(2.75) Odds:1.00 Trainer:RAMIREZ_EDUARDO
4/26/2017 EVD race 6 STAND HIM UP Finished:2nd(6) Odds:1.20 Trainer:ALONZO_HOWARD