Evaluation of MrMartingale System: CONCLUSION

[99steak]

For those of you who dont know, this system is pretty much martingale progression with some modifications. The system has a bound of 6 games. So if there is a 6 game losing streak, you dont continue the progression, instead you restart the whole thing.

Here is the summary of the progression:
Bet 1 = U
Bet 2 = U(2.1)<SUP>2 </SUP>= 2.1U
Bet 3 = U(2.1)<SUP>3 </SUP>= 4.41U
Bet 4 = U(2.1)<SUP>4 </SUP>= 9.26U
Bet 5 = U(2.1)<SUP>5 </SUP>= 19.45U
Bet 6 = U(2.1)<SUP>6 </SUP>= 40.84U
Total (Bankroll) = U + U(2.1)<SUP>2</SUP> + U(2.1)<SUP>3</SUP> + U(2.1)<SUP>4</SUP> + U(2.1)<SUP>5 </SUP>= 77.06U. Therefore, this system requires a 77.06 Units of bankroll if you are to do 1 unit bets.

You can read the rules and the details at mrmartingale webiste

The guy runs 2 series. I have been testing both series for 1 unit = $10 units.

Series 1 is approaching 2000 bets and it has encountered 4 six game losing streaks. The first losing streak happened sometime after 1000th bet. But overall profit is still over 900 units. Series 2 was started only this year and it is still perfect after 400 bets.

This system is dangerous when you start (at the beginning) because if the losing streak happens before you double your bankroll, then you are screwed. It takes about 1 month to 1.5 months to double the bankroll using his picks and system. Pretty much all picks are underdog odds, so its very nice when you win after 3 or 4 game losing streak but it can also be a big nervous wreck when you are betting on those dogs on your 5th and 6th bets. But the fact that he uses underdog odds is the key to the success of the system because the rate of doubling hte bankroll is much faster.

Most interesting thing i learned is that this can be profitable and less risky when i place the bets just same amount on every bet. His average odds are around 2.40. Series one has a win % of 50.42 so far. and Series 2 has win % of 54.16%. With odds of 2.4 that is very profitable just by placing flat bets (equal units) on all games.

Here is the copy paste of the records for the system picks for both series:


<TABLE borderColor=#fcfbf8 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#fefefe border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=265>

System SERIES 1 Picks Record
Started: September 2006
Staking Style: MrMartingale System

Bet Results: 845-831-119 (50.42%)

Number of failures: 4

System Record: 845-4 (99.53%)

Net profit after deductions: +930.86 Units

Longest Losing Streak: 8 (1 time), 6 (4 times)

Longest Winning Streak: 5 (8 times)​

<IFRAME title="Series 1 Recent Picks" src="http://www.mrmartingale.com/mrmarchives.html" frameBorder=0 width=253 height=200> <!-- Alternate content for non-supporting browsers --> News </IFRAME></TD><TD vAlign=center width=1>

</TD><TD align=middle width=265>

System SERIES 2 Picks Record
Started: January 2008
Staking Style: MrMartingale System

Bet Results: 202-171-26 (54.16%)

Number of failures: 0

System Record: 202-0 (100%)

Net Profit: +301.82 Units

Longest Losing Streak: 5 (2 times)

Longest Winning Streak: 5 (2 times)​

<IFRAME title="Series 2 Recent Picks" src="http://www.mrmartingale.com/podarchives.html" frameBorder=0 width=253 height=200> <!-- Alternate content for non-supporting browsers --> News </IFRAME></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[yellowman]

Does this guy do only bases? Or does he do NFL/NCAAF? Guessing if he does, he must play some dog MLs? Sounds fairly intriguing....if you could build up your roll prior to hitting the inevitable 6 game losing streak, you might not be too bad off....

 

[PO69]

Well of course it can work. But one of the tough things is to find a book where you can bet $10,000 on a game AND GET PAID when you win

 

[CoolBreeze22]

when his losing streak hit 8, how much did he lose considering a 1 unit bet=$100?

 

[yellowman]

when his losing streak hit 8, how much did he lose considering a 1 unit bet=$100?

Well since he caps his losing streak at 6, he would have lost 77.06 units when the 6th game in a row lost. Then the progression would start over and assuming the next two progressions won, he lost 75.06ish (he bets dogs so the actual loss would be a little less) units.

I wonder what the odds are you will lose 6 in a row. Guessing it is less than 77 to 1, although since this guy only plays -110 or less, he only needs it to be probably closer to 65 to 1 in order to be profitable long term

As 99steak accurately put it, the danger is hitting the 6 game streak before your roll is built up sufficiently to handle the loss.

 

[Akillies]

why would one ever risk 70+ units on a play?
unless the play had an advantage 70x greater than a normal play

 

[fhmesq44]

99, did you pay for his subscription and follow his choices? What are the criteria (other than not more than -110) for his plays?

 

[fhmesq44]

why would one ever risk 70+ units on a play?
unless the play had an advantage 70x greater than a normal play

it is actually 40 on one play, it would be a 70 unit loss for the series if you lose that play

 

[99steak]

Yes he plays football too. ON my first post, use the scroll down menu and check the latest plays to see how he plays it. That is copy paste from his records page.

Ya I paid for the subscription. I tested the system with 1 unit = $10 bets for the first few months. 1 unit =$10 was good enough to cover the subscription cost and make a smal profit. I almost trippled the bankroll with series 1 before it failed. So even after the failiure I still had 2x the bankroll. When it fails, you get the picks free until you gain another 77.06 units in profit (which takes about 1 to 1.5 months).

Remember that the key to the success of this system is the odds and the "WAY ITS BET". They system asks you to "RISK" the amount regardless of the odds. For example if you reach the 4th bet and if his 4th bet had odds of +150, YOU RISK 9.26 UNITS ON THE +150...that will win you +13.89 units. If you bet to win 9.26 units, then it wont be as profitable when it fails. Usually the most profitable weeks are when he has 35 to 40% success rate on his picks because during those weeks you hit couple of 3rd, 4th or 5th bets with + odds that bring backs lot of money.

I know it sounds ridiculous when you think of it as, it is stupid to risk 40 units on a bet (when you are on the sixth game), but that is how it works. You just have to put aside a bankroll (of 77.06 units) for this system ad jsut follow it strictly without any other thoughts. If you first month goes smooth then you are pretty much set.

I FORGOT TO INCLUDE ONE KEY INFORMATION ON MY CONCLUSION POST: IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT YOU SELECT THE UNIT SIZE THAT YOU WANT TO PLAY WITH IT AND STICK TO IT FOR EVER. MOST PEOPLE WHO BASH THIS SYSTEM DONT HAVE THSI DISCIPLINE. FOR EXAMPLE, THEY WOULD START WITH 1 UNIT = $50. EVERYTHING GOES SMOOTH FOR 2 MONTHS AND THEY SEE THE BANKROLL DOUBLE. NOW THEY ARE GREEDY AND THEY RAISE THEIR UNIT SIZE TO $100. ANOTHER 2 SMOOTH MONTHS, AND THEY GET EVEN GREEIDIER AND THEY RAISE IT TO 1 UNIT = $150. THEN COMES THE LOSING STREAK AND THEY LOSE PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING THAT THEY WON, AND THEY GET PISSED AT THE CAPPER AND BASH HIM. BUT WHOZ FAULT IS IT REALLY? IF YOU FOLLOWED THE SYSTEM AND KEPT THE UNIT SIZE CONSTANT THROUGH OUT, THAT LOSING STREAK AFTER 6 MONTHS WOULDNT HURT YOU AT ALL.

 

[99steak]

Well of course it can work. But one of the tough things is to find a book where you can bet $10,000 on a game AND GET PAID when you win

If you are doing 1 unit = $100, the highest bet that you would make (6th bet) is 40.84 units. Thats $4084. The two books that he recommends in the system are pinny and bkmaker. Those two books are recommended for a reason. They both accept very large wagers and they always pay.

 

[99steak]

Well since he caps his losing streak at 6, he would have lost 77.06 units when the 6th game in a row lost. Then the progression would start over and assuming the next two progressions won, he lost 75.06ish (he bets dogs so the actual loss would be a little less) units.

I wonder what the odds are you will lose 6 in a row. Guessing it is less than 77 to 1, although since this guy only plays -110 or less, he only needs it to be probably closer to 65 to 1 in order to be profitable long term

As 99steak accurately put it, the danger is hitting the 6 game streak before your roll is built up sufficiently to handle the loss.

When there is a failiure (6 game losing streak) the loss from the 6 lossess is exactly 77.06 units because the system asks you to risk the bet amount regarldess of the odds. Read the system one more time slowly. It is super simple.

 

[PO69]

Well who needs to suscribe for picks though?


Once you understand the system, just make your own picks.

Paying for the system is the WORST thing that you have done.

 

[99steak]

Well who needs to suscribe for picks though?


Once you understand the system, just make your own picks.

Paying for the system is the WORST thing that you have done.

To do it as a system it is much easier when you follow someone blindly.

When i started testing this system, I initially started with my own picks. Once you reach 4th bet, it really affects your capping skills because you automatically tend to go towards more obvious plays (bookie traps) and it fucks you up. It is really hard to come up with a valuable underdog when you are at 5th and 6th bet. And i was only testing it with 1 unit = $10. If i was doing 1 unit = $50 or $100, emotions will play a big roll in my handicapping during 5th or 6th bet. When i follow someone, i just put the faith in the system and that capper and follow them blindly as a system--its less stress.

 

[fhmesq44]

99, to clarify, he simply caps the games to come up with his choices, correct? Other than the <-110, there is no objective criteria that spits out plays?

 

[99steak]

99, to clarify, he simply caps the games to come up with his choices, correct? Other than the <-110, there is no objective criteria that spits out plays?

yes thats correct.

another thing is that you have pick games that dont overlap. For example, if your first pick today is on the boston redsox (7.05pm EST start) next game has to start after the boston game is done. so next game has to be one of the games that starts around 10.05pm or later.

 

[fhmesq44]

Thanks. are you planning to continue? If so, planning to post his picks?

 

[99steak]

Thanks. are you planning to continue? If so, planning to post his picks?

i used to post his picks here but he emailed the site and added his service to the list of service plays that you cant post. i havent been on this forum in months, i dont know what the rules are now on posting service plays. plus he knows who i am on his client list, so i dont want to go out of the way.

i seen some other post his plays in the service section in forums but they never post consistently. they would post once or twice a week, which is useless because when you do this system and follow the picks, you have to follow it consistently everyday.

i would suggest that you do your own picks. if you are going to follow mrmartingale guy, get it straight from him because if you depend on forum posters, they never post consistently. if you follow this system and picks, consistency matters. Here is a situation...lets say mrmartingale goes 0-3 today and 2-0 tomorrow and 0-3 day after tomorrow. if the forum poster for some reason couldnt post on the 2-0 day, you are screwed.

 

[99steak]

Thanks. are you planning to continue?

ya i finished the test a while ago. then i decided to do 1 unit = $100. after some gain i decided to lower it to 1 unit = $50. I am going to stick to that amount for ever.

I also play all his plays for a risk of $250 on the side ( started doing this after i lowered my unit size to 1 unit = $50 for the system plays) the yield is very good betting like this because of the odds.

 

[FrankieCarbone]

That's a pretty steep price for his picks. Roughly $800 for 3 months. And his second system is even more expensive than that.

 

[Uno]

so what does Mr Martingale/99steak pay to be able to tout in the offshore forum?