sds my friend! Glad to see you thinking about value with picks! ITs a very important concept, hard to define becuase it seems like picking winners is the most important thing! this horse will be 1-5. Worth a show bet if they have the show pool open
Well for a "wPS bet, there is very little there at 1-5 - better to play the SHOW as it will pay the same as the WIN !!!!!
What I do with a horse like E.C is put him with another solid horse and do a $100 Exactor and a $50 Tri. This way I build in a good return .
trytry - I always understood "value" - just that everyone has differing definitions for it . I know many guys who will NOT bet win/place on a horse if it is paying say $3/$4
I PERSONALLY find that to be GREAt value! Where else can I lay $100 and get $150 ? My argument all along was with people who only look at 5-1 or better and HOPE that their horse can pull through. I would rather take a 3-1 who I feel is definately contending and take a little less - always remember: tickets that don't cash are useless, regardless of what they "could have been" if the horse won.
sds
What I do with a horse like E.C is put him with another solid horse and do a $100 Exactor and a $50 Tri. This way I build in a good return .
trytry - I always understood "value" - just that everyone has differing definitions for it . I know many guys who will NOT bet win/place on a horse if it is paying say $3/$4
I PERSONALLY find that to be GREAt value! Where else can I lay $100 and get $150 ? My argument all along was with people who only look at 5-1 or better and HOPE that their horse can pull through. I would rather take a 3-1 who I feel is definately contending and take a little less - always remember: tickets that don't cash are useless, regardless of what they "could have been" if the horse won.
sds
Hi guys, fellow harness player here.
Mark Cramer did a study on 1-5 shots in tbreds and they show a profit even if you bet them all. You need an 83.33% win rate to break even and Cramer showed they won 86% of their races. Don't know if this a good bet with harness, though.
I think betting them to show would show a small loss. At 2.10 you need 95% winners just to break even. I don't think 1-5 shots pay more than 2.10 to show very often.
While on one hand I think value is subjective, it can be proven objectively if you make money.
Mark Cramer did a study on 1-5 shots in tbreds and they show a profit even if you bet them all. You need an 83.33% win rate to break even and Cramer showed they won 86% of their races. Don't know if this a good bet with harness, though.
I think betting them to show would show a small loss. At 2.10 you need 95% winners just to break even. I don't think 1-5 shots pay more than 2.10 to show very often.
While on one hand I think value is subjective, it can be proven objectively if you make money.
this race did not even have show wgering! Because the track would have had a GIANT minus pool. show wagering can make you cash even with the 95% needed. not sure that 1-5 stat is quite right. Let me look into some sources. Interesting.
