Normally I like making UFC plays during event, something exhilarating about build-up, bet, fight and instant gratification...all in quick order. That said, with little other avenues for action I have played a couple early.
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Gilbert Burns -166 - Maia has looked good over the last few years using superior BJJ to control his opponents and win while taking very little damage. Gilbert Burns is a BJJ blackbelt world champion (2011)...so this will be the first time in a long time that Maia does not have a clear advantage as Burns should be able to match and defend any BJJ offense Maia attempts. Gilbert has looked great in his last few fights and has stayed very active competing in BJJ tournaments in between UFC fights. This might not be the most exciting fight, but Burns should win somewhat easily and is my top play.- In the Main we have Oliveira who tends to wilt and “submit” or he actually gets caught in submissions due to mental errors... It’s been a while since Kevin Lee has gotten a signature back take->rnc. He pulled that move on Chiesa which NOBODY expected... I would prolly classify Lee as a sub-specialist/wrestler/kickboxer (in that order) but I guess it will be a mystery with Firas, the 5 rounds, and all of this crazy shit going on right now. Bookies are implying that Kevin is most likely to KO Oliveira, but they might be high on that Gillespie KO who had a suspect chin/striking defense... 1039 Lee wins by submission +465 sure has my attention.
- Amanda Ribas-370 / Ribas wins inside distance +295 - Not much to say here; Ribas is solid all around, younger and more explosive legit BJJ fighter with speed. Markos is an old gritty fighter not in her prime and her prime wasn't that great. Ribas easy win and should be a good chance for a finish with Markos only chances being to survive 3 rnds.
- Nikita Krylov +125 - Walker is favorite and the the better althete. Camp change to Tristar who I am a huge fan of, so his game will improve...but still a work in progress imho. Krylov: solid striker, solid chin, solid grappler. Can walker knock him out? Maybe, I don't see it. I'll likely roll with dog here. I will say Walker looked great at faceoffs and in the best shape I've seen him in. It's just hard to see him the same after Cory exposed him.
