ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Jets vs. Patriots Friday, October 22, 2004
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Jets and Patriots. Now they're back with a
second look.
Injuries will force New England to rely on the versatility of its
tight ends as well as backs. With WRs Deion Branch and Troy Brown expected
to miss this game, the Patriots won't have the depth at receiver to spread
the field. As a result, look for TE Dan Graham and/or RB Kevin Faulk to
line up on the outside when New England goes to its four-receiver sets.
In addition, ROT Tom Ashworth is questionable with a back injury and the
inexperienced Brandon Gorin is expected to replace him if he can't play.
Gorin will struggle to keep Jets LDE Shaun Ellis out of the backfield when
the Patriots drop back to pass. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis can
help Gorin by keeping a tight end like Christian Fauria in to block or
using a back to chip Ellis.
New England hasn't lost at home since December of 2002, but it lost that
game to the Jets, who went on to win the division with a 9-7 record. The
Patriots also had a 9-7 record that year. That game was Jets QB Chad
Pennington's only start in Foxborough thus far and he threw for 285 yards
and three touchdowns. While it's earlier in the season this time around,
the Patriots and Jets find themselves in a similar situation, as the
outcome of this game will have a big impact on the AFC East race. New
England will have to do a better job of containing Pennington this week or
history could repeat itself. However, it's important to note that he threw
five interceptions the last time these two teams played.
The Patriots' red zone defense has been outstanding, allowing just six
touchdowns in 22 possessions inside its 20-yard line. New England does an
excellent job of taking advantage of the lack of space the offense has
close to the goal line. It will load up against the run and allow its
corners to muscle receivers out of their routes. In addition, the
Patriots' linebackers are active and rarely get caught out of position.
The Jets have to make the most of their red-zone opportunities, which will
take mistake-free football and sound play calling.
One advantage the Jets have going into this game is the defense has run
more blitzes, played more man coverage and used some three-man fronts
under defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson. QB Tom Brady is facing a
much different Jets team than the one he faced twice last year. He'll have
to adjust and it could cause him to get off to a slow start. However,
Henderson must be careful. Brady has shown that he will throw downfield
when he gets the opportunity. If New England can pick up the blitz and
Brady reads man coverage on the outside, the result should be some big
plays for the Patriots.
New England CB Tyrone Poole is questionable with the knee injury that
forced him to miss the Miami game two weeks ago and limited him last week.
Asante Samuel will start if Poole can't go and rookie undrafted free agent
Randall Gay will replace Samuel as the nickel back once again. However,
the Jets shouldn't have a significant advantage when they spread the field
with their multiple-receiver sets. Samuel has played well in relief of
Poole and Gay has impressed the coaching staff as well has his teammates
with his rapid development. If Pennington tries to pick on him too much,
Gay, who has an interception, could make him pay.
Keep an eye on the matchup between rookie MLB Jonathan Vilma and
Faulk when Brady drops back to pass. Vilma has the athletic ability and
speed to cover Faulk in man coverage, but Faulk is a crisp route-runner
who will use some double moves to set Vilma up. Vilma must wrap Faulk up
after the catch when he does get beat, as Faulk has the burst and
elusiveness to turn the short gain into the big play.
Jets WR Santana Moss is expected to play after missing last week's game
with a hamstring injury. His return to the lineup couldn't come at a
better time because of his big-play ability. Moss will be working against
a Patriots secondary that has been vulnerable to the vertical passing game
and finding him downfield would force SS Rodney Harrison to play deeper.
Backing him off the line would open up the running game for RB Curtis
Martin and the short-to-intermediate passing game as well.
Martin is having an excellent season, and New England will have to keep
him contained if it expects to win this game. However, Patriots RB Corey
Dillon is also a franchise back. In addition, the fact that Faulk is such
a dangerous receiver out of the backfield means New England has better
depth. As a result, the Patriots received the Scouts Inc. Advantage at
running back.
Special Teams
New England PK Adam Vinatieri missed a 47-yard field goal attempt wide
right two weeks ago but he bounced back by connecting on all three of his
field goal attempts last week. He is one of the most clutch kickers in the
game and the Jets don't want this contest to be decided by a late field
goal attempt.
The return of Moss should also give the Jets' punt return unit a boost.
Moss takes little time to reach his top speed and has the ability to
change directions quickly. New England P Josh Miller may try to kick away
from him as a result.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 20
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Jets and Patriots. Now they're back with a
second look.
Injuries will force New England to rely on the versatility of its
tight ends as well as backs. With WRs Deion Branch and Troy Brown expected
to miss this game, the Patriots won't have the depth at receiver to spread
the field. As a result, look for TE Dan Graham and/or RB Kevin Faulk to
line up on the outside when New England goes to its four-receiver sets.
In addition, ROT Tom Ashworth is questionable with a back injury and the
inexperienced Brandon Gorin is expected to replace him if he can't play.
Gorin will struggle to keep Jets LDE Shaun Ellis out of the backfield when
the Patriots drop back to pass. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis can
help Gorin by keeping a tight end like Christian Fauria in to block or
using a back to chip Ellis.
New England hasn't lost at home since December of 2002, but it lost that
game to the Jets, who went on to win the division with a 9-7 record. The
Patriots also had a 9-7 record that year. That game was Jets QB Chad
Pennington's only start in Foxborough thus far and he threw for 285 yards
and three touchdowns. While it's earlier in the season this time around,
the Patriots and Jets find themselves in a similar situation, as the
outcome of this game will have a big impact on the AFC East race. New
England will have to do a better job of containing Pennington this week or
history could repeat itself. However, it's important to note that he threw
five interceptions the last time these two teams played.
The Patriots' red zone defense has been outstanding, allowing just six
touchdowns in 22 possessions inside its 20-yard line. New England does an
excellent job of taking advantage of the lack of space the offense has
close to the goal line. It will load up against the run and allow its
corners to muscle receivers out of their routes. In addition, the
Patriots' linebackers are active and rarely get caught out of position.
The Jets have to make the most of their red-zone opportunities, which will
take mistake-free football and sound play calling.
One advantage the Jets have going into this game is the defense has run
more blitzes, played more man coverage and used some three-man fronts
under defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson. QB Tom Brady is facing a
much different Jets team than the one he faced twice last year. He'll have
to adjust and it could cause him to get off to a slow start. However,
Henderson must be careful. Brady has shown that he will throw downfield
when he gets the opportunity. If New England can pick up the blitz and
Brady reads man coverage on the outside, the result should be some big
plays for the Patriots.
New England CB Tyrone Poole is questionable with the knee injury that
forced him to miss the Miami game two weeks ago and limited him last week.
Asante Samuel will start if Poole can't go and rookie undrafted free agent
Randall Gay will replace Samuel as the nickel back once again. However,
the Jets shouldn't have a significant advantage when they spread the field
with their multiple-receiver sets. Samuel has played well in relief of
Poole and Gay has impressed the coaching staff as well has his teammates
with his rapid development. If Pennington tries to pick on him too much,
Gay, who has an interception, could make him pay.
Keep an eye on the matchup between rookie MLB Jonathan Vilma and
Faulk when Brady drops back to pass. Vilma has the athletic ability and
speed to cover Faulk in man coverage, but Faulk is a crisp route-runner
who will use some double moves to set Vilma up. Vilma must wrap Faulk up
after the catch when he does get beat, as Faulk has the burst and
elusiveness to turn the short gain into the big play.
Jets WR Santana Moss is expected to play after missing last week's game
with a hamstring injury. His return to the lineup couldn't come at a
better time because of his big-play ability. Moss will be working against
a Patriots secondary that has been vulnerable to the vertical passing game
and finding him downfield would force SS Rodney Harrison to play deeper.
Backing him off the line would open up the running game for RB Curtis
Martin and the short-to-intermediate passing game as well.
Martin is having an excellent season, and New England will have to keep
him contained if it expects to win this game. However, Patriots RB Corey
Dillon is also a franchise back. In addition, the fact that Faulk is such
a dangerous receiver out of the backfield means New England has better
depth. As a result, the Patriots received the Scouts Inc. Advantage at
running back.
Special Teams
New England PK Adam Vinatieri missed a 47-yard field goal attempt wide
right two weeks ago but he bounced back by connecting on all three of his
field goal attempts last week. He is one of the most clutch kickers in the
game and the Jets don't want this contest to be decided by a late field
goal attempt.
The return of Moss should also give the Jets' punt return unit a boost.
Moss takes little time to reach his top speed and has the ability to
change directions quickly. New England P Josh Miller may try to kick away
from him as a result.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 20
