ESPN Elo rating, very interesting.

[BLAK_MAMBA]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/

60% and above elo rating went 22-10 ats since week 1.
70% 7-3 ats
80% 2-0 with pats and Seattle covering last sun.

week 4- Zona, Seattle and indy close to 80% elo rating.

 

[indiana]

B/M...........interesting info...........thank you, BOL this week............indy

 

[RussellPeters]

Good stuff thanks for sharing.

 

[bobbyjones2]

interesting, but all chalk..

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Zona is in all of my 10 point teasers this week, their offence is a Juggernaut
,

 

[Mistermj]

If 83% of all NFL winners cover the spread, then another way to think of this might be...

70% ELO chance to win x 83% of all NFL winners cover = (If ELO correctly predicts winners) in theory...over time it will give 58.1% ATS using 70 % ELO.

But one season is probably too small of a real sample, and people aren't willing to do the work over time, for the ups and downs in the long haul. ;-)

If it wins this season, it's the holy grail, if it loses next season it's crap...neither would be correct.

 

[TomandJerry]

I actually like indiana and seattle; not sure about Arizona