I'm going to be dipping back into the world of MMA/Boxing from a gambling perspective. I posted regularly at the RX around the early 100's and another site previously. Starting small, as I haven't been as involved with the sport of late.
Renan Barao (-330) v Urijah Faber (+300)
Suggested probability: 76.4%/25.0%
No vig probability: 75.4%/24.6%
True odds: -307/+307
Barao (31-1):
L5: 5-0
Wins: Wineland TKO-2, McDonald Sub-4, Faber UDec, Jorgenson UDec, Pickett Sub-1
Faber (30-6):
L5: 4-1
Wins: McDonald Sub-2, Alcantara UDec, Jorgensen Sub-4, Menjivar Sub-1
Losses: Barao UDec
Projected line: Barao -235
PLAY: Faber +300 (0.5 unit to win 1.50)
I couldn’t pass the +300 up for Faber, Barao is a beast, but this line is a bit inflated IMO. At +300, the dog only needs to win 25.1% of the time to turn a profit. I’m not a huge Faber fan, but he has impressed me of late and like the way he looks since Ludwig entered the mix at Team Alpha Male.
Ali Bagautinov (-140) v. John Lineker (+130)
Suggested probability: 58.3%/43.5%
No vig probability: 57.3%/42.7%
True odds: -134/+134
Bagautinov (12-2):
L5: 2-0 (in UFC)
Wins: Elliot UDec, Pancini TKO-3
Lineker (23-6):
L5: 4-1
Wins: Harris KO-1, Tome TKO-2, Gashimov TKO-2, Urushitani UDec
Losses: Gaudinot Sub-2
Projected line: Lineker -140
PLAY: Lineker +130 (0.5 unit to win 0.65)
Lineker missed weight and seemed to set off a torrent of action fading him. I can see it, as it shows poorly to miss weight in such a critical fight in his career. I still like him to take down the touted Russian, especially at this price.
Jamie Varner (-115) v. Abel Trujillo (+105)
Suggested probability: 53.5%/48.8%
No vig probability: 52.3%/47.7%
True odds: -110/+110
Varner (21-8-1):
L5: 2-2 (in UFC)
Wins: Guillard SDec, Barboza TKO-1
Losses: Tibau SDec, Lauzon Sub-3
Trujillo (11-5):
L5: 1-1
Wins: Bowling TKO-2
Losses: Nurmagomedov UDec
Projected line: Varner -155
PLAY: Varner -115 (0.575 unit to win 0.50)
There have been some questions regarding Varner’s health and his camp, which has led to this line to plummet. I don’t see it, Varner is a huge step up for Trujillo and the crafty vet should be able to survive Trujillo’s initial onslaught and take control as the fight goes on, unless the injury concerns are more than expected.
John Makdessi (-120) v. Alan Patrick (+110)
Suggested probability: 54.5%/47.6%
No vig probability: 53.4%/46.6%
True odds: -115/+115
Makdessi (12-2):
L5: 3-2
Wins: Forte KO-1, Cruickshank UDec, Stout UDec
Losses: Njokuani UDec, Hallman Sub-1
Patrick (11-0):
L5: 1-0
Wins: Whiteley TKO-1
Projected line: Patrick -115
PLAY: Patrick +110 (0.50 unit to win 0.55)
I like Patrick, but am not fully sold on him entering the UFC (second fight). However, I’m not real high on Makdessi, so I’m going against my usual and backing the newer face whose line has been dropping rapidly.
Renan Barao (-330) v Urijah Faber (+300)
Suggested probability: 76.4%/25.0%
No vig probability: 75.4%/24.6%
True odds: -307/+307
Barao (31-1):
L5: 5-0
Wins: Wineland TKO-2, McDonald Sub-4, Faber UDec, Jorgenson UDec, Pickett Sub-1
Faber (30-6):
L5: 4-1
Wins: McDonald Sub-2, Alcantara UDec, Jorgensen Sub-4, Menjivar Sub-1
Losses: Barao UDec
Projected line: Barao -235
PLAY: Faber +300 (0.5 unit to win 1.50)
I couldn’t pass the +300 up for Faber, Barao is a beast, but this line is a bit inflated IMO. At +300, the dog only needs to win 25.1% of the time to turn a profit. I’m not a huge Faber fan, but he has impressed me of late and like the way he looks since Ludwig entered the mix at Team Alpha Male.
Ali Bagautinov (-140) v. John Lineker (+130)
Suggested probability: 58.3%/43.5%
No vig probability: 57.3%/42.7%
True odds: -134/+134
Bagautinov (12-2):
L5: 2-0 (in UFC)
Wins: Elliot UDec, Pancini TKO-3
Lineker (23-6):
L5: 4-1
Wins: Harris KO-1, Tome TKO-2, Gashimov TKO-2, Urushitani UDec
Losses: Gaudinot Sub-2
Projected line: Lineker -140
PLAY: Lineker +130 (0.5 unit to win 0.65)
Lineker missed weight and seemed to set off a torrent of action fading him. I can see it, as it shows poorly to miss weight in such a critical fight in his career. I still like him to take down the touted Russian, especially at this price.
Jamie Varner (-115) v. Abel Trujillo (+105)
Suggested probability: 53.5%/48.8%
No vig probability: 52.3%/47.7%
True odds: -110/+110
Varner (21-8-1):
L5: 2-2 (in UFC)
Wins: Guillard SDec, Barboza TKO-1
Losses: Tibau SDec, Lauzon Sub-3
Trujillo (11-5):
L5: 1-1
Wins: Bowling TKO-2
Losses: Nurmagomedov UDec
Projected line: Varner -155
PLAY: Varner -115 (0.575 unit to win 0.50)
There have been some questions regarding Varner’s health and his camp, which has led to this line to plummet. I don’t see it, Varner is a huge step up for Trujillo and the crafty vet should be able to survive Trujillo’s initial onslaught and take control as the fight goes on, unless the injury concerns are more than expected.
John Makdessi (-120) v. Alan Patrick (+110)
Suggested probability: 54.5%/47.6%
No vig probability: 53.4%/46.6%
True odds: -115/+115
Makdessi (12-2):
L5: 3-2
Wins: Forte KO-1, Cruickshank UDec, Stout UDec
Losses: Njokuani UDec, Hallman Sub-1
Patrick (11-0):
L5: 1-0
Wins: Whiteley TKO-1
Projected line: Patrick -115
PLAY: Patrick +110 (0.50 unit to win 0.55)
I like Patrick, but am not fully sold on him entering the UFC (second fight). However, I’m not real high on Makdessi, so I’m going against my usual and backing the newer face whose line has been dropping rapidly.
