Interesting matchup tonight.
The model I use as one of the tools in my arsenal suggests the Chiefs get it done tonight 31-24, adjusted for Kelce’s likely absence/limitation, in full transparency, the model has very mixed results in Weeks 1-4 of the season as there’s still too much overlap from the previous seasons data. Typically, week 5 and beyond it becomes a more valuable tool.
For any DFS/props players, the model (take with a grain of salt) projects KC to outgain DET approximately 391-376 with a pass/rush split of KC (260/131) and DET (249/127), once again adjusted for Kelce’s absence/limitation.
More to come.
The model I use as one of the tools in my arsenal suggests the Chiefs get it done tonight 31-24, adjusted for Kelce’s likely absence/limitation, in full transparency, the model has very mixed results in Weeks 1-4 of the season as there’s still too much overlap from the previous seasons data. Typically, week 5 and beyond it becomes a more valuable tool.
For any DFS/props players, the model (take with a grain of salt) projects KC to outgain DET approximately 391-376 with a pass/rush split of KC (260/131) and DET (249/127), once again adjusted for Kelce’s absence/limitation.
More to come.
Putting the analytics/statistics aside, I was actually quite high on Detroit in this matchup, pre-Kelce injury. I thought the Lions might be able to steal this game. I’m not as high on the Chiefs as most and I figured Reid would pull his norm, tossing the ball around fifty times, adding possessions to the Lions offense and wearing out and already suspect KC defense.
Now there’s at least a reasonable chance Reid runs 5-10% more than normal and the Lions were gashed on the ground last season to a tune on a horrific 5.2 yds (30th) per carry. In addition, teams tend to rally around injured stars, so you may see a marginal step up from the role players, O-line, defense, etc. knowing they need push a little harder with a guy who accounted for like a quarter of Mahomes passing yardage out or severely limited.
I really don’t anticipate this Chiefs team to be one that’s runs away with the No. 1 seed and expect them to settle in to the 2-4 seed, but still be lethal come the playoffs due to Mahomes. I actually expect the Chargers to lead the division 90% of the season and blow it at the end (they host KC Wk18) like the Chargers do.
I know there’s a hype train on DET, but I’m a believer, especially when they get Williams back, he’s going to be a special player if he can stay healthy and keeps his nose clean. You may not see it tonight, but I expect the Lions to be right in it in the NFC late in the season.
Now there’s at least a reasonable chance Reid runs 5-10% more than normal and the Lions were gashed on the ground last season to a tune on a horrific 5.2 yds (30th) per carry. In addition, teams tend to rally around injured stars, so you may see a marginal step up from the role players, O-line, defense, etc. knowing they need push a little harder with a guy who accounted for like a quarter of Mahomes passing yardage out or severely limited.
I really don’t anticipate this Chiefs team to be one that’s runs away with the No. 1 seed and expect them to settle in to the 2-4 seed, but still be lethal come the playoffs due to Mahomes. I actually expect the Chargers to lead the division 90% of the season and blow it at the end (they host KC Wk18) like the Chargers do.
I know there’s a hype train on DET, but I’m a believer, especially when they get Williams back, he’s going to be a special player if he can stay healthy and keeps his nose clean. You may not see it tonight, but I expect the Lions to be right in it in the NFC late in the season.
Final thoughts on this one….
I’d really lean towards KC -4/-4.5 if I was confident Reid would pound the rock significantly more than their norm due to the Kelce injury, but we’ve seen the book on Reid and he simply doesn’t do that. His complete unwillingness to run the ball has cost him many a big games his side was favored to win.
Mahomes is able to mask the suspect play calling and lack of in-game adjustments that have plagued Reid’s career, that’s just how good Mahomes is.
If KC runs the rock at a significantly higher clip, they likely win by over a TD, Reid pulls his typical and the Lions odds of a cover or potentially an outright win increase substantially.
DFS: S Moore/McKinnon/Gray worth a solid look to combine with higher priced guys
I’d really lean towards KC -4/-4.5 if I was confident Reid would pound the rock significantly more than their norm due to the Kelce injury, but we’ve seen the book on Reid and he simply doesn’t do that. His complete unwillingness to run the ball has cost him many a big games his side was favored to win.
Mahomes is able to mask the suspect play calling and lack of in-game adjustments that have plagued Reid’s career, that’s just how good Mahomes is.
If KC runs the rock at a significantly higher clip, they likely win by over a TD, Reid pulls his typical and the Lions odds of a cover or potentially an outright win increase substantially.
DFS: S Moore/McKinnon/Gray worth a solid look to combine with higher priced guys
Here’s the rest of the models lines/totals for Week 1. As a mentioned earlier, the model has very mixed results the first four weeks of the season due to last year creeping into the results at too great of a degree.
ATL -5 / 40.5; actual (-3.5/39.5)
BLT -15 / 38.5; (-9.5/43.5)
CIN -1 / 39; (-2/47.5)
JAX -3.5 / 47; (-5/46.5)
MIN -1 / 42.5; (-5.5/45.5)
NO -1 / 38; (-3/41.5)
PIT -4.5 / 40; (SF -2.5/41)
WSH -5.5 / 39.5; (-7/38)
CHI/GB PK / 44.5; (CHI -1/42)
DEN -1 / 38.5; (-3/44)
MIA -5.5 / 48.5; (LAC -3/51)
NE -6 / 41; (PHI -4/44.5)
SEA -1 / 41.5; (-5/46.5)
DAL -3.5 / 47; (-3/45.5)
NYJ -1 / 37; (BUF -2.5/45.5)
Continued success.
ATL -5 / 40.5; actual (-3.5/39.5)
BLT -15 / 38.5; (-9.5/43.5)
CIN -1 / 39; (-2/47.5)
JAX -3.5 / 47; (-5/46.5)
MIN -1 / 42.5; (-5.5/45.5)
NO -1 / 38; (-3/41.5)
PIT -4.5 / 40; (SF -2.5/41)
WSH -5.5 / 39.5; (-7/38)
CHI/GB PK / 44.5; (CHI -1/42)
DEN -1 / 38.5; (-3/44)
MIA -5.5 / 48.5; (LAC -3/51)
NE -6 / 41; (PHI -4/44.5)
SEA -1 / 41.5; (-5/46.5)
DAL -3.5 / 47; (-3/45.5)
NYJ -1 / 37; (BUF -2.5/45.5)
Continued success.
AFC East:
This division should be in the running for the best division in football, top to bottom. I’m in the minority, but I expect the Bills to take a huge step back. Something is off with this team, not sure if it’s coaching, chemistry or what. I expect the Bills to miss the playoffs and the division to be a dog fight between New York and Miami as Buffalo battles New England for third.
Buffalo has one of the oldest defenses in the league, especially on the line and have been racking up lots of injuries the last few years. The offensive line isn’t good, they can’t run the ball outside of Allen and Allen for all his accolades continues to make tons of mistakes that coupled with a brutal schedule should open the door for a disappointing season.
1.0 Buffalo U 10.5 wins +130
0.5 Buffalo to miss the playoffs +245
I lean to the Jets to take home the division, their defense will be one of the leagues best, they are loaded with skill players, I like the coaching staff and Rodgers is a huge upgrade at QB. Miami is stacked, but Tua’s health is a concern and I’m not in love with the coaching staff. Jets offensive line is a concern, but there are O-Lines concerns throughout the division, except in New England. I’d rate the Jets O-line ahead Miami and well ahead of Buffalo with the Patriots the top unit in the division.
Continued success.
This division should be in the running for the best division in football, top to bottom. I’m in the minority, but I expect the Bills to take a huge step back. Something is off with this team, not sure if it’s coaching, chemistry or what. I expect the Bills to miss the playoffs and the division to be a dog fight between New York and Miami as Buffalo battles New England for third.
Buffalo has one of the oldest defenses in the league, especially on the line and have been racking up lots of injuries the last few years. The offensive line isn’t good, they can’t run the ball outside of Allen and Allen for all his accolades continues to make tons of mistakes that coupled with a brutal schedule should open the door for a disappointing season.
1.0 Buffalo U 10.5 wins +130
0.5 Buffalo to miss the playoffs +245
I lean to the Jets to take home the division, their defense will be one of the leagues best, they are loaded with skill players, I like the coaching staff and Rodgers is a huge upgrade at QB. Miami is stacked, but Tua’s health is a concern and I’m not in love with the coaching staff. Jets offensive line is a concern, but there are O-Lines concerns throughout the division, except in New England. I’d rate the Jets O-line ahead Miami and well ahead of Buffalo with the Patriots the top unit in the division.
Continued success.
AFC North:
Speaking of the best divisions in football….this one is loaded. You could see a scenario here where all four teams have winning records. I expect Cincinnati and Baltimore to battle it out for first, with the loser claiming the top wildcard while Pittsburgh and Cleveland battle for third and one of the final wildcard spots.
I like the Ravens to take home the top spot, but it should be neck and neck all season. Leaning to Cincy starting slow again, but this year it will cost them.
1.0 Ravens to win the division +235
Continued success.
Speaking of the best divisions in football….this one is loaded. You could see a scenario here where all four teams have winning records. I expect Cincinnati and Baltimore to battle it out for first, with the loser claiming the top wildcard while Pittsburgh and Cleveland battle for third and one of the final wildcard spots.
I like the Ravens to take home the top spot, but it should be neck and neck all season. Leaning to Cincy starting slow again, but this year it will cost them.
1.0 Ravens to win the division +235
Continued success.
AFC South:
Not much to see here. Jags should run away with this division with the other three not sniffing the playoffs. I’m not sold on the Titans, who many think will battle the Jags. Houston will be vastly improved and more competitive, but I expect Stroud to struggle and the Colts should be terrible and have a top four pick next season.
Taking a shot on Jags as the AFC’s #1 seed, while they aren’t as talented as some of the big guns in the conference, they do have a very favorable division, favorable schedule and Lawrence is the real deal. The other monsters of the AFC may cannibalize themselves a bit, face much stiffer competition in their divisions and face more challenging schedules.
1.0 Houston O 6.5 wins +130
0.3 Jags AFC #1 seed +1200
Continued success.
Not much to see here. Jags should run away with this division with the other three not sniffing the playoffs. I’m not sold on the Titans, who many think will battle the Jags. Houston will be vastly improved and more competitive, but I expect Stroud to struggle and the Colts should be terrible and have a top four pick next season.
Taking a shot on Jags as the AFC’s #1 seed, while they aren’t as talented as some of the big guns in the conference, they do have a very favorable division, favorable schedule and Lawrence is the real deal. The other monsters of the AFC may cannibalize themselves a bit, face much stiffer competition in their divisions and face more challenging schedules.
1.0 Houston O 6.5 wins +130
0.3 Jags AFC #1 seed +1200
Continued success.
AFC West:
I really think the Chargers can push the Chiefs for the division this season, but it’s tough to back the Staley led Bolts, they can fuck a good thing up with the best of them. I could see the Chargers leading the division all season and blowing it the final week of the season when they host KC.
I don’t see either KC or LAC making much noise in the playoffs this season. If LAC get in, they’ll be one and done, maybe KC wins a game, but I don’t see them in the AFC title game this year.
Denver will be much improved under Payton and should be in the wildcard hunt, but I anticipate they’ll fall short. I expect the Raiders to be a distant fourth in the division and could see McDaniels getting canned, that guy is a complete bonehead. The move from Carr to Jimmy G makes zero sense, I get it, they were banking on Brady, but come on.
1.0 Vegas U 6.5 wins -115
I really think the Chargers can push the Chiefs for the division this season, but it’s tough to back the Staley led Bolts, they can fuck a good thing up with the best of them. I could see the Chargers leading the division all season and blowing it the final week of the season when they host KC.
I don’t see either KC or LAC making much noise in the playoffs this season. If LAC get in, they’ll be one and done, maybe KC wins a game, but I don’t see them in the AFC title game this year.
Denver will be much improved under Payton and should be in the wildcard hunt, but I anticipate they’ll fall short. I expect the Raiders to be a distant fourth in the division and could see McDaniels getting canned, that guy is a complete bonehead. The move from Carr to Jimmy G makes zero sense, I get it, they were banking on Brady, but come on.
1.0 Vegas U 6.5 wins -115
NFC East:
I see Philly taking the division comfortably, but they won’t be as strong as last season. I do think Philadelphia will be in the running for the #1 seed and end up 1-2 in the conference, but they won’t be heading back to the SB and maybe not even the conference title game.
I’m not real high on Dallas, they’ll compete for a WC spot, but the Skins and Giants will likely be right in their heels maybe one even jumps them, I’d lean NYG as the more likely of the two. This division is strong top to bottom, maybe no AFC East/North level, but only a bit behind.
This division will likely get two teams, but could easily pick up zero playoff victories.
I see Philly taking the division comfortably, but they won’t be as strong as last season. I do think Philadelphia will be in the running for the #1 seed and end up 1-2 in the conference, but they won’t be heading back to the SB and maybe not even the conference title game.
I’m not real high on Dallas, they’ll compete for a WC spot, but the Skins and Giants will likely be right in their heels maybe one even jumps them, I’d lean NYG as the more likely of the two. This division is strong top to bottom, maybe no AFC East/North level, but only a bit behind.
This division will likely get two teams, but could easily pick up zero playoff victories.
NFC North:
I expect the Lions to run away with this division, that sounds odd to say, but they should easily be the most superior squad in the North. Once the get Jameson Williams back the offense should hit another gear and take off.
Minnesota will be in the WC race and probably be fighting with NYG, WSH and NO for the final spot, but they’d be a one and done again if they get in. Green Bay and Chicago should battle it out for third, not in the playoff hunt. I’d give GB the slight edge there.
I expect the Lions to run away with this division, that sounds odd to say, but they should easily be the most superior squad in the North. Once the get Jameson Williams back the offense should hit another gear and take off.
Minnesota will be in the WC race and probably be fighting with NYG, WSH and NO for the final spot, but they’d be a one and done again if they get in. Green Bay and Chicago should battle it out for third, not in the playoff hunt. I’d give GB the slight edge there.
NFC South:
I like the Falcons to take the South, I like what this squad is doing and Ridder should be a significant upgrade to Mariota, who simply can’t throw the ball. The Saints will be right in it and battling for the last WC spot.
Carolina and Tampa should be well behind the Falcons/Saints, but I will be curious to see how the Panthers come along and if/when TB benches Mayfield could shake things up there, Mayfield is terrible.
1.0 Atlanta to win the NFC South +215
Continued success.
I like the Falcons to take the South, I like what this squad is doing and Ridder should be a significant upgrade to Mariota, who simply can’t throw the ball. The Saints will be right in it and battling for the last WC spot.
Carolina and Tampa should be well behind the Falcons/Saints, but I will be curious to see how the Panthers come along and if/when TB benches Mayfield could shake things up there, Mayfield is terrible.
1.0 Atlanta to win the NFC South +215
Continued success.
NFC West:
This will be a two horse race with the Niners and Hawks and I expect that race to be much closer than most expect. I still think the Niners pull it out, it expect Seattle to be right there with a chance of pulling the shocker. The Hawks should get the No. 1 WC.
The Rams and Cards will be pulling up the rear and no where near the playoff picture.
This will be a two horse race with the Niners and Hawks and I expect that race to be much closer than most expect. I still think the Niners pull it out, it expect Seattle to be right there with a chance of pulling the shocker. The Hawks should get the No. 1 WC.
The Rams and Cards will be pulling up the rear and no where near the playoff picture.
