ERockMoney 2015 NFL Outlook

[ERockMoney]

Another profitable season in the books last year. Let's hope we are as fortunate this season.

Five Year Posted Record:

Sides and Totals: 308-227, 57.6%, +52.875
ML: 92-147, 38.5%, +8.745
Total: +61.530
ROI: +11.4%

Week One Selections:

464 Chicago +7 (-108)
470 Buffalo ML +120
472 Washington +3.5 (-105)
477 New Orleans ML +120
490 Atlanta +3 (-115)

1/5 bet:

464 Chicago ML +275
472 Washington ML +170
490 Atlanta ML +135

Best of luck with your action.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Week One:

Sides and Totals: 1-2, 33.3%, -1.130
ML: 2-3, 40.0%, +0.070
Total: -1.060
ROI: -18.0%

Week One Selections:

464 Chicago +7 (-108) - LOSS
470 Buffalo ML +120 - WIN
472 Washington +3.5 (-105) - LOSS
477 New Orleans ML +120 - LOSS
490 Atlanta +3 (-115) - WIN

1/5 bet:

464 Chicago ML +275 - LOSS
472 Washington ML +170 - LOSS
490 Atlanta ML +135 - WIN

 

[ERockMoney]

Season:

Sides and Totals: 1-2, 33.3%, -1.130
ML: 2-3, 40.0%, +0.070
Total: -1.060
ROI: -18.0%


Week Two Selections:

268 Minnesota -3 (+105)
272 Chicago ML +115
274 Cleveland ML +105
278 Washington +3.5
284 Jacksonville +6 (-108)

1/5 bet:

278 Washington ML +165
284 Jacksonville ML +230

Best of luck with your action.

 

[indiana]

ERM..............always good to see your thoughts............BOL with all your action this week end............any thoughts on K.C. for thurs...........indy

 

[ERockMoney]

Adding:

280 NY Giants -2.5 (-113)

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

ERM..............always good to see your thoughts............BOL with all your action this week end............any thoughts on K.C. for thurs...........indy

Indy,

Best of luck my friend. My apologies, I didn't see your comment on the Broncos-Chiefs game. Tough one to call, I hope you cashed.

Continued success.

 

[United]

Good luck ERockMoney

 

[ERockMoney]

Week 2:

Sides and Totals: 3-1, 75.0%, +1.920
ML: 3-1, 75.0%, +0.840
Total: +2.760
ROI: +41.1%


Week Two Selections:

268 Minnesota -3 (+105) - WIN
272 Chicago ML +115 - LOSS
274 Cleveland ML +105 - WIN
278 Washington +3.5 - WIN
280 NY Giants -2.5 (-113) - LOSS
284 Jacksonville +6 (-108) - WIN

1/5 bet:

278 Washington ML +165 - WIN
284 Jacksonville ML +230 - WIN

 

[ERockMoney]

Season:

Sides and Totals: 4-3, 57.1%, +0.790
ML: 5-4, 55.6%, +0.910
Total: +1.700
ROI: +13.5%

Week Three Selections:

462 St. Louis ML +108
467 Philadelphia ML +125
471 Jacksonville +14.5 (-120)
478 Tennessee +3 (+100)
480 Dallas ML +110

1/5 bet:

471 Jacksonville ML +750
478 Tennessee ML +160

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Good luck ERockMoney

United,

I hope all is well for you and yours mine friend. Let's get some winners this week.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Season:

Sides and Totals: 5-4, 55.6%, +0.690
ML: 6-8, 42.9%, -0.240
Total: +0.450
ROI: +2.5%

Week Four Selections:

258 Tampa Bay +3 (+105)
262 Chicago +3 (-108)
264 Washington +3.5 (-113)
270 San Francisco +8.5 (-105)
273 St. Louis +7 (-105)

1/5 bet:

258 Tampa Bay ML +155
262 Chicago ML +145
264 Washington ML +160
270 San Francisco ML +325
273 St. Louis ML +260

Best of luck with your action.

Continued success.

 

[indiana]

ERM..........good looking card..........lov Wash and S.F............BOL with all your action this week end..........indy

 

[ERockMoney]

ERM..........good looking card..........lov Wash and S.F............BOL with all your action this week end..........indy

Indy,

Best of luck with your action my friend.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Season:

Sides and Totals: 8-6, 57.1%, +1.640
ML: 9-10, 47.4%, +0.490
Total: +2.130
ROI: +8.70%

Week Five Selections:

453 Buffalo -1 (+100)
463 St. Louis +9 (-105)
465 Seattle +3.5 (-113)
468 Detroit +3.5 (-108)
475 Pittsburgh +4 (-108)

1/5 bet:

463 St. Louis ML +370
465 Seattle ML +155
468 Detroit ML +167
475 Pittsburgh ML +180

Best of luck with your action.

 

[HacheMan]

GL today

 

[ERockMoney]

It's early in the year, so this data isn't very credible based on the limited games, but here some figures for this weeks game. I find these quite helpful for my DFS, where I have been spending more time and shifiting more funds due to the much higher probability of winning versus this racket....

(pass yds / rush yds)

Jacksonville (219.95 / 59.77)
Tampa Bay (207.75 / 144.79)

Buffalo (198.68 / 94.07)
Tennessee (280.60 / 98.47)

Cleveland (242.87 / 104.40)
Baltimore (277.77 / 114.46)

Washington (305.53 / 95.48)
Atlanta (275.67 / 96.66)

Chicago (235.51 / 130.87)
Kansas City (227.01 / 98.37)

New Orleans (283.34 / 122.48)
Philadelphia (239.19 / 104.13)

St. Louis (240.54 / 79.40)
Green Bay (286.11 / 80.71)

Seattle (225.07 / 128.94)
Cincinnati (197.70 / 163.31)

Arizona (297.86 / 145.65)
Detroit (173.65 / 142.48)

New England (318.40 / 111.32)
Dallas (283.69 / 68.68)

Denver (238.76 / 90.03)
Oakland (186.11 / 109.40)

San Francisco (226.46 / 91.61)
NY Giants (244.30 / 110.08)

Pittsburgh (267.68 / 93.60)
San Diego (247.29 / 94.74)

 

[ERockMoney]

Brady is projected to be the top QB in my model and comes at the second highest cost, but he's almost the best value option, which is rare for a high priced QB, touhg argue selecting him. Some cheaper options worth a look are Taylor (7,500), Cousins (6,400) and Smith (6,900). I either went Brady or one of these lower paid QB's. Matt Ryan is the only other high priced QB worth a look IMO.

Outside of the obvious New England and Atlanta, my model likes the following passing offenses this week (combination yards + points through the air); Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Washington.

 

[ERockMoney]

GL today

Hache,

Best of luck this week.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Season to date: (numbers are in their infancy due to limited games)

Offensive YPP: (schedule strength); does not include Thursday night game

1. Arizona 10.946 (31)
2. New England 11.252 (21)
3. Atlanta 11.774 (13)
4. Carolina 11.926 (30)
5. Denver 12.536 (16)
6. Tennessee 12.663 (32)
7. Buffalo 13.018 (7)
8. NY Giants 13.167 (8)
9. Green Bay 13.212 (24)
10. Cincinnati 13.950 (14)
11. Kansas City 14.290 (2)
12. Oakland 14.495 (22)
13. Pittsburgh 14.990 (12)
14. NY Jets 15.000 (26)
15. Philadelphia 15.077 (9)
16. Minnesota 15.088 (18)
17. Baltimore 15.269 (5)
18. Dallas 15.547 (11)
19. St. Louis 15.554 (4)
20. Seattle 15.897 (19)
21. Cleveland 16.259 (27)
22. San Diego 17.125 (20)
23. Detroit 17.742 (6)
24. New Orleans 18.012 (17)
25. Chicago 18.441 (3)
26. Tampa Bay 18.542 (29)
27. Indianapolis 18.764 (28)
28. Miami 19.369 (25)
29. Washington 19.641 (15)
30. Houston 19.961 (23)
31. Jacksonville 22.339 (10)
32. San Francisco 24.083 (1)

 

[ERockMoney]

Defensive YPP: (strength of schedule)

1. NY Jets 20.382 (26)
2. Minnesota 19.603 (18)
3. Carolina 19.099 (30)
4. Cincinnati 18.948 (14)
5. NY Giants 18.829 (8)
6. Pittsburgh 18.453 (12)
7. Green Bay 17.549 (24)
8. Philadelphia 17.372 (9)
9. Arizona 16.808 (31)
10. Atlanta 16.796 (13)
11. Indianapolis 16.667 (28)
12. Buffalo 16.359 (7)
13. St. Louis 15.978 (4)
14. Denver 15.971 (16)
15. Detroit 15.958 (6)
16. Cleveland 15.931 (27)
17. Miami 15.822 (25)
18. New England 15.800 (21)
19. Seattle 15.704 (19)
20. Oakland 14.954 (22)
21. New Orleans 14.673 (17)
22. Washington 14.582 (15)
23. Dallas 13.772 (11)
24. San Frnacisco 13.718 (1)
25. Jacksonville 13.514 (10)
26. Baltimore 13.346 (5)
27. San Diego 12.791 (20)
28. Houston 12.741 (23)
29. Kansas City 12.704 (2)
30. Tennessee 12.013 (32)
31. Tampa Bay 11.107 (29)
32. Chicago 9.888 (3)