ERockMoney 2014 College Football Outlook

[ERockMoney]

Here we go again……the college football season is nearly upon us and we finally have playoffs! I’m in the minority, but I like the four team model and don’t need to see the seventh, eighth best teams have an opportunity to play for a title. The schedule eliminates those teams in my opinion and letting them have a second crack after failing is pointless.

Last year was a strong year for me, brining my four year mark at the RX to two really strong seasons and two with minimal profits in college. Hopefully, I can put together another solid year and scrape some profit out of the season.

Four year (2010-2013) posted CFB record: 382-320-16, 54.4%, +29.20, ROI: +4.1%

As previously discussed, I tend to use a few approaches to my selections; Value, perception, spot/situation and experience.

The value plays are generally where I find value between my developed line compared to the actual line.

Perception plays are generally going against certain perceptions, i.e., dominant teams with inflated lines, undervalued teams with inflated lines, previous season ATS busters I expect to regress or previous season ATS struggles whom I expect to improve.

Spot/situational plays tend to deal with unfavorable scheduling situations, excessive road trips/travel or a negative/positive feel to a particular teams schedule “flow”.

Experience plays are based on my own experience with certain teams. I keep meticulous records and make a selection on all games to track my tendencies with certain teams and conferences. I have found over the years I have excellent success with certain teams and have done a solid job grading how they change year over year, recruiting evaluation, bench personnel, etc. On the other hand, there are certain teams I do a terrible job of tracking/grading, which leads to believe somewhere analysis of said team is flawed.

Ideally, I'm looking for games that cross some combination of these factors.


My analysis suggests we should be in for a crazy season. I expect the two strongest conferences, the SEC and Pac 12 to not only fail to produce an unbeaten, but fail to produce even a one loss squad due to the strength of the conferences top to bottom. The gap at the top has closed in both conferences and the middle tier is showing strong improvement IMO.

For me, it starts and ends in the trenches, so I’m always looking for sides who can dominate the line of scrimmage. This was the reason behind the SEC’s dominance for years and the reason many teams had stellar seasons and just fell short. Your Ohio State’s, Texas’s, Oregon’s, Notre Dame’s, Oklahoma’s, etc. fell short due to inferior line play on both sides of the ball over the years they came ever so close to capturing the top prize.

I’ll try to get some high level thoughts down on each conference leading into the season. As always, much respect to the posters who keep this forum going year round, you know who you are. I haven’t been around as much as I would like of late with other responsibilities eating away at my time, but I was certainly keeping up on the excellent knowledge being dropped on here the last few months. The work is done, the hours committed and the hardest part is over.

Best of luck this season and may you have more bounces go your way than against and may your team play with heart, aggression and discipline.

Continued success.

 

[GoSooners]

Good to see you back Rock. I'm agreement with you about the SEC and Pac-12. They both could end up cannibalizing themselves. After the dust settles we could see an unusual looking Final Four.

 

[Steiner69eR]

Good to see ya, ERM. Can't wait to get this season started!

 

[comrade666]

Oh yeah. It's crazy how the pac12 has come into its own

good luck this year

 

[doglover]

Your approach sounds as solid as it gets. Whether it's "value, perception, spot/situation or experience" the challenge as always, is how to convert those factors into points or fractions of points. Hopefully the continued refinement of your selection process will bear fruit again. I look forward to checking in with your selections, evaluations and rationale this season. Good luck to you!

 

[ERockMoney]

Good to see you back Rock. I'm agreement with you about the SEC and Pac-12. They both could end up cannibalizing themselves. After the dust settles we could see an unusual looking Final Four.

GS,

I hope all is well my friend. How are things over at TSE? I haven't had as much times on my hands of late and haven't been able to stop by as much as I would have liked. I'm sure you guys will knock em dead again this year as you have assembled a hell of a team.

Pass on my best wishes to Pez and Shivers...I sure miss those guys insight here.

I hope I'm not the KOD, but I really like your Sooners this year and have them taken the whole thing down. Knight also fits my criteria for a nice sleeper to take home the Heisman. I don't think they run the table, but I'm expecting an 11-1 Big 12 championship season and a berth into the playoffs.

Best of luck this season.

 

[ERockMoney]

Good to see ya, ERM. Can't wait to get this season started!

Not too far off now my friend. I hope you have a profitable season.

 

[ERockMoney]

Oh yeah. It's crazy how the pac12 has come into its own

good luck this year

The Pac 12 really has improved leaps and bounds of late. The conference is so deep and talented I just see anyone running the table or even finishing with one loss for that matter. I'm in the minority, but I like the Trojans to win it this year and advance to the playoffs.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Your approach sounds as solid as it gets. Whether it's "value, perception, spot/situation or experience" the challenge as always, is how to convert those factors into points or fractions of points. Hopefully the continued refinement of your selection process will bear fruit again. I look forward to checking in with your selections, evaluations and rationale this season. Good luck to you!

DL,

Best of luck to you this season. I'm hoping I can replicate my results last year and possibly improve upon them slightly.

 

[russ1945]

Yes it is that time, time to get serious about this season. Week one is getting closer and closer. What interests me is who are going to be this year's surprise teams like Auburn and Mizzou last year. Those type of teams have great success ATS. And that is what it is all about, ATS. Best of Luck (did I spell that out lol).

 

[ERockMoney]

Yes it is that time, time to get serious about this season. Week one is getting closer and closer. What interests me is who are going to be this year's surprise teams like Auburn and Mizzou last year. Those type of teams have great success ATS. And that is what it is all about, ATS. Best of Luck (did I spell that out lol).

Russ,

Good to hear from you my friend. Excellent work again this off-season on your end, as usual. I got a few teams I have my eye and will throw them periodically as I move through my thoughts on the conferences.

Best of luck this season.

 

[ERockMoney]

Sun Belt:
Projected Standings:

Order	Team	Conference	Overall
1.	Troy	6-2	8-4
1.	Arkansas State	6-2	7-5
3.	UL-Lafayette	5-3	7-5
3.	Texas State	5-3	6-6
3.	UL-Monroe	5-3	5-7
3.	South Alabama	5-3	5-7
7.	Idaho	3-5	4-8
7.	Georgia Southern	3-5	4-8
7.	New Mexico State	3-5	4-8
7.	Georgia State	3-5	4-8
11.	Appalachian State	0-8	2-10

 

[GoSooners]

I got a few teams I have my eye and will throw them periodically as I move through my thoughts on the conferences.

USC is pretty high on my list of potential surprise teams. I'm still not sure about Sarkasian, but he has got to be a HUGE step up from what they've had for the last few years. Plus they have a pretty reasonable schedule...

 

[thekeyman]

​good luck this season E-ROCK,i just love college football and can't wait for it to start myself

 

[ERockMoney]

Surprise Team: Troy

Defense: (96[SUP]th[/SUP] in 2013)

Troy were decimated with defensive injuries last season and although they are replacing a lot of “starters” they are strong in the two deep with experience, extra reps, practice and snaps due to the amount of injuries sustained last season.

The defensive line should be one of the most improved in the conference, led by Roberts, Gosha and a plethora of JC’s to add some depth. The linebacking corps is the conferences best IMO and should make for a very intriguing front seven from the Trojans. Troy has struggled against the run the last few seasons, but has been steadily improving and I expect an even more significant jump in 2014. The addition of DC Bolt should help.

The secondary was a mess in 2013 and I question how much improvement we will see this season. Added pressure on the QB from the front seven will help, but this group is a concern. Special teams should take a hit as well and is always a “nice to have” for me when backing a longer shot to out produce expectations.

To be a serious contender for the conference Troy will likely need about a fifty spot jump from their 2013 defensive numbers. This is a realistic goal based on my analysis for a few reasons, mainly Bolt, who produced similar jumps in his career, the likelihood of less defensive injuries, high probability of increased turnovers forced (only 11 last year) and an expected, continued decrease in yards per carry allowed (about -0.2/0.3 last few seasons) in the -0.6/0.7 range due to progression of defense and Bolt influence, as those figures align with his previous averages in year one.

Offense (53rd in 2013)

Offensively, the Trojans have strong talent in the backfield and on the outside and should possess one of the more successful rushing and receiving combinations in the conference. QB is going to be the major question mark for the offense with red-shirt freshman Brandon Silvers and two JC transfers Dontreal Pruitt and Connor Bravard battling for the starting position.


The offensive line should be solid in 2014 with both tackles back along with the center. The guards need to be replaced, but Hutson, the Ole Miss transfer, should be a huge boost.

The offense has an opportunity to produce similar numbers, possibly even slightly better, if the QB play is sound. The new QB won’t match Anderson in any way, but Troy should have a stronger running game, possibly from the QB position as well if Pruitt does secure the job and the expectation that turnovers will be down. The latter is expected for two main reasons, Troy will throw less and run more and the sheer probability of less fumbles. Troy lost nine fumbles last season with many on blown protection from the line. A veteran staff under Blakeney has to have worked vigorously on this issue and improved protection should limit these occurrences. To boot, they had another nine fumbles they recovered, but would be considered play/drive stoppers.

Coaching:

Blakeney enters his 24[SUP]th[/SUP] season at Troy and has a proven track record of getting the most out of his players, solid, strategic game planning and a willingness to play an aggressive game on both sides of the ball. Wayne Bolt, rejoins Troy after a 12 year hiatus with stops at UAB, Iowa State and Auburn. Bolt is a pretty incredible story and once weighed over 500 pounds and lost nearly 300 pounds. He brings 35+ years of experience to the Troy defense and should be an excellent addition to staff.

Schedule:
Troy has the good fortune to play all five of the “expected” cellar teams in the conference and miss Arkansas State and Texas State on the schedule.

They have conference home games against New Mexico State, Appalachian State, Georgia State and UL-Lafayette. The UL-Lafayette game closes the season and is off a bye for Troy and will be Lafayette’s fifth game in 28 days and third away from home during that stretch.

The conference road slate includes UL-Monroe, South Alabama, Georgia Southern and Idaho. Troy has a reasonable chance to get past all five cellar squads and would only need to land one of three of the remaining games for a 6-2 conference mark and likely share of the title.

Monroe has owned Troy of late and is off a bye in their matchup, which starts the conference slate for both teams. Troy is off a road game at Georgia, but does have a bye week following the Monroe game. Monroe has won three straight in the series and is off a bye while the Troy starts a tough stretch for the Warhawks with Troy, at Arkansas State and at Kentucky. I like ULM in this spot to extend their streak to four straight over Troy, especially with Pete Thomas of CSU/NCST, taking over at QB.

Troy should be able to win four of the next five games with a trip to South Alabama being the one game in question. South Alabama is off a homecoming game versus Georgia State, but does have a brutal stretch following the Troy game with road trips to both UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State on tap. I’d lean towards South Alabama in this contest, especially after last season’s heartbreaker. I like Troy to win out following the South Alabama with the crucial game being in the finale hosting UL-Lafayette.

Summary:

Troy has a lot of characteristics I look for in team that will exceed expectations, strong coaching, improved assistants, coming off an injury riddled season defensively, strong minutes and reps from the two deep due to injuries, strong at the line of scrimmage and a favorable schedule.

However, a few areas that concern me are the quarterback position, which is critical. Losing a four year starter is very difficult and teams in general who are losing their starting QB have around a 67% rate of having a worse record than the previous season. I expect dual-threat JC transfer Pruitt to win the job and do some great things in the Sun Belt this season. Pruitt chose Troy over UL-Monroe and Alabama-Birmingham, he is a bit undersized, but athletic, aggressive and can run and throw, which should give SBC defenses fits this season.

Another concern is the special teams, which could struggle and end up costing this team a conference game, which could be the difference between and title and playing second fiddle. Lastly, recruiting has soured at Troy over the past few years, but is less of a concern due to their heavy attack on the JC ranks.

I have seen Troy at around +1100/+1200 to win the conference and will probably hit that small. I have seen a win total of around 6, but will likely pass unless I get a favorable payout on the over. I have them with eight wins, but I’m counting at UAB, which is really a toss-up and the Lafayette game, which could be a dangerous line of thinking if everyone else is right about Lafayette and I’m the one in the wrong.

 

[kraz]

ggod luck this year hope we all are on the right side

 

[ERockMoney]

​good luck this season E-ROCK,i just love college football and can't wait for it to start myself

Key,

Thank you for stopping by.

Best of luck to you this season.

 

[ERockMoney]

ggod luck this year hope we all are on the right side

Kraz,

Here's to a profitable season.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Bust Team: UL-Lafayette

Defense: (59[SUP]th[/SUP] in 2013)

The defense failed to impress me in 2013 and I just don’t see some miraculous improvement in 2014 just because they return a multitude of starters. I would expect some reasonable progression and I like the pedigree of DC Willis, with experience at both Alabama and Auburn. If the offense experiences a more typical year with injuries I would expect additional pressure on the defense, which could eliminate any progression made.

The defensive line is the jewel of the defense and should be the best in the conference. Three starters return, including all conference DT Hamilton and they bring in Miami transfer Briscoe, who is a mountain of a man. Lafayette was 56[SUP]th[/SUP] against the run and 106[SUP]th[/SUP] at getting to the quarterback and I expect both areas to improve in 2014, especially the latter.

The linebacking corps is a mess and will be a real soft spot of the defense. The unit was already underwhelming and now has thrown senior linebacker and former Ole Miss recruit Barksdale, Jr off the team earlier this month. The struggles of this group should increase the pressure on the strong front line.

The passing defense was 85[SUP]th[/SUP] in 2013 and should improve, especially with added pressure on the QB, but I don’t expect significant improvement. All in all, the defense should be incredibly suspect in 2014 and teams pegged to the run the table in their respective conferences usually don’t have suspect defenses. Throw in what should be a poor special teams unit, improved squads at Monroe and Troy and a less than predicted drop from Arkansas State and the lofty projections for the Cajuns could easily crash and burn.


Offense (17th in 2013)

The offense is stacked, there is no denying that. Broadway returns at QB and should be poised for another strong season. The backfield is loaded and returns everyone, plenty of talent on the outside and a strong, experienced offensive line. I just don’t see how the offense improves drastically, as statistically they were the 17[SUP]th[/SUP] best offense last season and still lost four games. The various predictions of a 10-11 win season are quite optimistic in my view. I assume those of that mindset must think the defense improves drastically or are simply looking at returning starters and nothing else, a common mistake made by many.

My biggest concern lies in the fact that all the cards fell Lafayette’s way last season and they still couldn’t get the job done. The offense lost a total of one, yes one, start last season. That will be virtually impossible to replicate.

The rushing attack ranked 43[SUP]rd[/SUP] in YPG in 2013, but was 59[SUP]th[/SUP] in YPA. Lafayette should be able to match or likely exceed those figures in 2013. They wore teams down last season more than truly dominating on the ground. However, I suspect the book is out a bit on the Cajuns, stack the box and make them beat you through the air. When the rushing game slowed or produced solid, but not outstanding results, Lafayette couldn’t beat teams through the air. When put into situations/downs when a pass was needed and expected by the defense, Lafayette delivered at an alarmingly low rate.

I don’t purchase preseason magazines, always afraid to poison the well so to speak, and want my analysis to be based on my research and opinion. I do however read quite a bit from various resources and have noticed plenty of media outlets calling for an undefeated conference run from the Cajuns. I don’t see it and expect plenty of line value playing against UL-Lafayette this season based on the overwhelming public/media support of this team.


Coaching:

The coaching staff appears sound, everything about them appears to impress me and that message appears to be rattling around the halls of college football. Hudspeth is a name on the rise and could be one more solid season away from leaving the pond in search of bigger fish. His name has already been rumored at Mississippi State (when they were struggling) and he was supposedly on Vanderbilt’s list, although not near the top. I keep coming back to the issues discussed above and wonder if coaching plays any part in it? I do think a jump directly to the SEC would be suicide for Hudspeth who would be better served going through a mid-level ACC type program before entering into the biggest stage against the biggest/best opposition.


Schedule:

Talk of eleven wins or an undefeated season is beyond me with non-conference road trips to Mississippi and Boise in consecutive weeks. Stop the Lafayette ground game and they are dead in the water and a suspect defense will struggle mightily to slow down these teams, especially the former.

The conference road slate includes Texas State, New Mexico State, UL-Monroe and Troy. Texas State precedes a huge showdown with Arkansas State while the ULM and Troy games fall in a 28 day stretch with five games, three of which are on the road. In fact, the road games fall in three of the final four weeks.

The conference home slate includes Georgia State, Arkansas State, South Alabama and Appalachian State with ULL missing two “bottom” teams in Idaho and Georgia Southern. I just don’t see where all the love is coming from with this squad other than simply looking at returning starters. Are they a solid SBC team, no doubt, but are they going to easily roll through this conference unbeaten, not a chance.

Summary:

The Cajuns certainly look good on paper, but paper doesn’t always translate into actual results. I’m of the belief Lafayette had everything going their way last year and failed to take of business, especially for a team that was supposed to be the best in the conference. Instead, they failed to win one of their final two games, which would have secured their first outright Sun Belt title ever. Broadway was injured and missed the final game, but their performances at home versus rival UL-Monroe and away to South Alabama were abysmal nonetheless.

Typically, I would expect a clear favorite in a lesser conference to either be a young team progressing, gelling, finishing the previous season on a dominant run, etc. I saw a team that played even or worse in most in conference games last season and faltered down the stretch instead of gaining momentum. Their performance, or lack thereof, in their last five conference games suggest to me a motivation issue, which falls on the coaching staff, lack of discipline, which ultimately falls on the coaching staff, and/or an over evaluation from the pundits/media of the true talent level of the team.

I don’t buy the argument that the Broadway injury killed them either, if they are that dependent on him they are not nearly as good of a team as many would suggest. Teams rally around injured leaders all the time and Lafayette not only failed to rally without him; they failed to show up entirely. For a team with an incredible offense they failed to dominate supposed inferior opposition, which likely means the offense is quite as dominate as many think, the defense is a liability or there are deeper motivational, preparation or focus issues taking place.

 

[ERockMoney]

Quick hits on SBC…..

Arkansas State (O: 66[SUP]th[/SUP] / D: 37[SUP]th[/SUP]):

I love the hire of Blake Anderson from UNC (OC) and expect the trend to continue where the Red Wolves are expected to falter following another coaching exit, yet they foil the “experts”. The defense and special teams could easily be the conferences best, two very important traits to have and the biggest difference for me compared to a side like ULL, better offense versus better defense and special teams, I’ll take the latter every time.

The biggest concern for me, and only thing holding me off completely backing this team, is the offensive line. I just don’t like what I’m seeing there and expect this unit to struggle.

UL-Monroe (O: 101[SUP]st[/SUP] / D: 77[SUP]th[/SUP]):

Thomas, former CSU and NCST product, takes over at QB and should give ULM a huge offensive boost. There is strong talent in the backfield behind Thomas and a serviceable offensive line. ULM may have the conferences best front seven.
The secondary and special teams should also be serviceable, but likely won’t contend with the top units in the conference, but would be considered well above the bottom of the conference as well. I’m not thrilled with the talent in the receiving corps for the Warhawks, which is likely my only real concern with the offense.

As mentioned in the previous SBC posts, I expect ULM to take down both Troy and ULL this season. However, I tend to lean towards ULM having more issues with the rest of the conference than Troy, Arkansas State or ULL. Road games in three of the final four weeks versus Appalachian State, New Mexico State and Georgia Southern concern me due to the travel, grouping of the games and the fact that all three programs should be playing better as the season progresses. I don’t see ULM taking down all three of them, with the highest probability of a loss being at Georgia Southern in the finale.

ULM faces a very daunting non-conference schedule with Wake Forest, at LSU, at Kentucky and at Texas A&M on tap, ouch. They should be battled tested and don’t be surprised if they upset Wake on opening night Thursday, August 28[SUP]th[/SUP].

Texas State (O: 56[SUP]th[/SUP] / D: 69[SUP]th[/SUP]):

I like the offense for the Bobcats and I like it a lot. I project them to be number two offensively in the conference behind only ULL. Jones, a sophomore, should only improve at QB and Lowe is the conferences best running back. They return six of their eight top receiving targets, who were almost interchangeable a year ago. In addition, they return nine of their top ten offensive lineman with close to 100 career starts. Texas State will boast the conferences strongest special teams as well, making this group incredibly dangerous in 2014.

As much as I like the offense, I’m on the other side with the defense. The defensive line is being completely rebuilt and the secondary isn’t that far off from the defensive line. The line backers have some talent and should be the bright spot of the defense, led by Michael Orakpo, younger brother of former Texas great Brian Orakpo.

South Alabama (O: 73[SUP]rd[/SUP] / D: 49[SUP]th[/SUP]):

If you are looking for value in South Alabama, I think you are year too late. The quarterback position is the biggest question mark for me and I suspect the rushing attack to take a hit due to loss of talent/experience and a decrease in passing efficiency. The defensive line is a major concern for me as well. I suspect South Alabama may have the deadly duo of not being proficient moving the ball on the ground and not being able to limit their opponents on the ground. The talk that this squad is ULL biggest competition is beyond me.

The receiving unit is sound, but should suffer with a less efficient quarterback play. The offense line is solid and should be one of the conferences better groups, but a lack of depth/talent at the running back position should hinder the rushing attack. The back seven of the defense should be strong and compete with the Monroe’s and Troy’s of the world, just a notch behind Arkansas St. In addition, the special team should be excellent and will compete for the conferences top billing.


Idaho (O: 123[SUP]rd[/SUP] / D: 124[SUP]th[/SUP]):

The conference new comers should provide some value this season. I really like the look of the offensive line, which were terrible a year ago, and expect this unit to be a real surprise and be considered amongst the conferences best. They return all five starters, who struggled, and added a few JC transfers which should add some depth. Entering the second year of Petrino’s system should really help with the squad’s progression along with a much more favorable schedule.

Usually, a strong offensive line is critical for me to back a lesser team to show significant improvement. The running backs and receivers are average and should be in the middle of the pack. Even with Idaho losing three of their top five targets from a year ago and kicking leading receiver Epps off the team last month, the progression in the system should help the returning young talent and a few JC’s could make a splash, like Jermaine Johnson a 6-4 4.45 speedster. I suspect they may produce a bit above their talent level due improved quarterback play from either redshirt freshman Linehan or sophomore Chalich, strong offensive line play and a much more balanced schedule that aligns with their talent level.

I like the defense at all levels to improve, especially versus the run. The front seven should be drastically improved. They return nearly everyone from the defensive line and added several JC for even more depth. The line backers are sound and return all three starters along with an influx of JC talent. The secondary should be the weakest unit of the bunch, but should still be vastly improved compared to last season. The special teams should be strong this season and I give Idaho a realistic shot to finish with a top four offense and defense in the country.

I thought I saw Idaho’s win total at 3, but didn’t see any juice associated with it, but if the price is reasonable I may look to the over.

Georgia Southern:

The Eagles lost their coach (Monken – Army), star QB (McKinnon) and are remaking their entire offense, which should see passing attempts increase by 4-5 times per game. Georgia Southern knocked off Florida last year and did not complete a pass during the game against only three attempts. The offense will be a whole new system in 2014 and they enter a stronger conference. Ellison should provide a solid rushing attack, but the offensive line, quarterback and receivers are truly unknowns with the new system.

The defense should be average at all levels with the secondary the most likely to excel. I don’t expect any unit to be near the bottom or top of the conference. The special teams looks unfavorable, so I don’t expect any serious threat from the Eagles this season. They do benefit from playing the other four “bottom” teams (2 home 2 away) and avoid ULL and Arkansas State.

New Mexico State (O: 92[SUP]nd[/SUP] / D: 111[SUP]th[/SUP]):

There is not much to get excited about at New Mexico State, but the move to the Sun Belt should help immensely. Gone from the brutal independent schedule are Texas, Minnesota, UCLA, San Diego State, Rice, Florida Atlantic and Boston College. They still do face LSU in the non-conference, but this is a vastly more manageable slate for the Aggies.

I like the receivers and give the rushing attack a chance to compete for middle ground in the SBC, but the quarterback and offensive line could overshadow the potential talent at the skill positions. Doug Martin enters his second season, which should help the squad from a progression standpoint. Rogers, a JC transfer, appears to be set to start, although I’ve heard a rotation could be in the works with Rogers and Jeanty. I’m never a fan of the rotation…

The defense should be a mess again, but is moving to a more suitable 4-3 and zone approach versus man to man, which is a solid move when lacking talent. The group is young, but very green. I expect them to struggle mightily, but a favorable schedule will certainly help. A slate that includes Cal Poly, at Georgia State, at UTEP, New Mexico, Georgia Southern and at Idaho could land some victories.


Georgia State (O: 117[SUP]th[/SUP] / D: 107[SUP]th[/SUP]):

There is only one way to go, right? I really think JC transfer Arbuckle could surprise this season, but he won’t get much help. The running backs and offensive line could be the worst in the conference and the receivers aren’t much better, but could surprise a bit.

The back seven should be a major concern again in 2014, but the defensive line should show some promise. I expect a stronger rush defense and pass rush this season, but frankly, things couldn’t get much worse. Based on the conference, I don’t expect another winless season from Panthers who get Albilene Christian, New Mexico State, Georgia Southern and Texas State at home and have a winnable road trip to Appalachian State.

Appalachian State:

The Mountaineers have some promise on offense with an experienced quarterback returning in Bryant, almost all their rushers returning and a strong offensive line. The talent on the outside is raw and inexperienced, but Appalachian State should be able to score some points.

My concern is with the defense, where they should greatly struggle at all three levels and could have the worst line backers and secondary in the conference. They will likely be in plenty of shootouts in conference play. They miss New Mexico State and Texas State, which lends to a more difficult conference slate than most of the other “bottom” teams. They also face a difficult schedule to close the season, so if the team does come together they will face the most difficult portion of the schedule during this stage with ULM, at Arkansas State and at ULL three consecutive weeks before closing at home versus Idaho. The special teams should also struggle with some big losses in the return game and seasoned kicker Stewart.