Enfuego Football Thread

Search

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
What a great night huh? We've got baseball, CFB and the NFL is back!

I'll be the first to admit I'm not a good NFL capper. I only hit roughly 50% and that really stinks but I'll still put out plays and do my homework and tonight is no exception.

I've been thinking about this game for some time and just don't think Pittsburgh is 7 points better than Tennessee. If you recall, Tennessee was 13-4 last year and in my book that's a solid year. They're a physical, tough and almost a clone of the Steelers in my opinion. I just can't get over the fact that the Titans destroyed the Steelers last year in Tennessee 31-14 without A. Haynesworth so that means little to me. I think what you see tonight is a hard-nosed tough matchup between two running defensive minded teams.

I do know the Steelers return 19 of 22 starters from last year's Super Bowl squad but one key loss is WR Nate Washington. Oddly enough they lost him to the Titans. Washington was a solid go to guy for Big Ben and I think they miss him this year. I also think Willie Parker gives up some rushing yards to Rashard Mendenhall so we'll see what roll he'll play tonight.

I believe Tennessee (13-4, 14-4-1 ATS in 2008) comes in to Pittsburgh with something to prove. They really should've gone farther in last year's playoffs in their mind but overcoming 3 turnovers in the red zone against Baltimore isn't easy. They have a very solid veteran QB that doesn't make mistakes, a very good defense and a great running game. What's not to love? I think Tennessee takes it to Pittsburgh on the ground with Johnson and White and Collins will make the plays he needs to make to get the job done.

I think Pittsburgh will try to establish a running game but realize it won't work and then it will be up to Ben to make plays in and out of the pocket. I really think the key to this game comes down to Pittsburgh's O-Line providing enough protection for Ben to throw the football to Ward, Holmes and Sweed. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers must keep C. Johnson inside the tackles or they can expect a big night from the 2nd year player.

What this play comes down to for me is two evenly matched teams duking it out in the first game of the year. I just don't think Pittsburgh is 7 points better than Tennessee. I think coach Fisher is just a better coach and the Titans will bring it tonight.

TENNESSEE TITANS +7

Key Stats:
TEN are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
PIT are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
Play of the day:
Sf +6

best of the rest:
Nyg/washington under 37
green bay -4
cinci -5
carolina +2.5

2009 ytd: 1-0
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
PLAY OF THE DAY:

TENNESSEE -6.5

I see a lot of people on Houston but did they watch them play last week? The Houston offense was bad to say it nicely and if they think it was bad last week wait until they play at Tennessee against that defense. Look, Tennessee is a very solid NFL football team. They actually should've beaten Pitt last week in Pitt except for the fact they made too many errors and missed some chip shot FG's.

Neither team wants to go 0-2 in this game but we'll all agree Tennessee is just about better in every single aspect except for the passing game. Fisher is a very good coach and will have the team motivated and prepared to face and defeat the Texans. After all, the Texans were outgained 462-183 at home against the Jets last weekend. You bring that performance to Tennessee and you're in for a very long day. Steve Slaton was held to only 17 yards on the ground and it maybe Groundhog Day again today.

Houston did beat Tennessee last year in Houston 13-12 but keep in mind Tennessee had already clinched a playoff birth. At home, Tennessee has handled Houston rather easily in 2008 31-12 and in 2007 28-20. Tennessee takes it to the Texans today.

Key Stats:
TEN are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
TEN are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Baltimore +3

Yes San Diego is a good team and I know that but they have some injuries. LT is out and starting center Nick Hardwick is doubtful as is starting guard Louis Vasquez. The Raiders D-line was able to get tons of pressure last week against the beat up O-line of the Chargers and now you have to face the D-line of the Ravens....good luck with that.

Both teams come in 1-0 and both didn't look quite as good as we expected them to look. Joe Flacco did throw for 307 yards last weekend and that has to concern the Chargers who are terrible defending against the pass. I think the Ravens mix it up well today and move the ball with ease. Not only did the Ravens move the ball through the air but they had 198 yards on the ground.

I think SD is injured and coming back on a short week to prepare definately plays a roll in this game. I think Baltimore plays the D they always play and they give the Chargers problems. Baltimore wins by 6.

Key Stats:
BAL are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
BAL are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
BAL are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.

San Francisco -1

SF went in and played a great game last weekend against the Cards. It was a statement game as they went in to the NFC's rep in the Super Bowl and not only covered the spread but beat them up and beat them on the scoreboard. Although SF couldn't run the ball Shaun Hill is becomming a very suitable QB in the NFL as he actually led the league last year in completion percentage.

I love the Seahawks as they are my team but the 28-0 win last week was quite deceiving. First of all, the Seahawks were playing the Rams who stink more than anyone but the Lions. Second, they had 3 turnovers and weren't that crisp on offense. It looks like they had a lot of rushing yards but Julious Jones had 62 on one play. They are injured as starting LB LeRoy Hill is out for 6 weeks and star Lofa Tatupu is not 100% has he was injured in the second half last week. Star lineman Walter Jones may not play and TJ Housh is also banged up.

I think SF comes in and takes it to the Hawks. I think they play hard for Singletary and love him in SF. They come in with confidence and dump the Seahawks by 7.

Key Stats:
None - This is a feel game knowing my Seahawks

Oakland +3

Just really liked what I saw on Monday night from Oakland. I thought the defense looked great and played with heart. Tom Cable brings a toughness to Oakland and they actually played fundamental football. The X-factor in this game is JaMarcus Russell. I don't like him and don't think he'll ever be good in the NFL but if he can just do enough and not screw things up I think Oakland wins this game.

Kansas City did look great last weekend in Baltimore. Cassell may or may not start but Croyle did enough to look alright last week. I think these two teams are about even in ability and I look for a 3 point game either way. Their loss actually looked deceiving last weekend as the Ravens scored with about .30 to push the final score to 14.

I love the Raiders pass rush and they actually did put up some yards (366) last week. Keep in mind in last year's game the Raiders won the game in Kansas City 23-8 and Darren McFadden rushed for 164 yards.

Key Stats:
Road team is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings.
KC are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Jacksonville -3

Yes, the Cards are the defending NFC champs and yes they have Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald and lots of weapons but they certainly didn't show it last weekend against the 49ers. Anquan Boldin is slightly injured and the 49ers put tons of pressure on the veteran QB and I think you see that today in Jacksonville.

Both teams come in not wanting to go 0-2. Jacksonville had a chance to knock off Indy at Indy last weekend but lost the game 14-12. Maurice Jones-Drew looks to play a big roll for the Jags as he had 5 catches last weekend and rushed for 97 yards against the Colts. Jags QB David Garrard needs to have a better game today. He was pretty bad last weekend only passing for 122 yards.

This is a very tough trip for Arizona with the time zone change and the humidity playing a role. Yes Arizona is hot but the dry heat is night and day against the humidity in Florida. I think Jacksonville gets on track with a 7-point win at home. Look for a good rush from the Jacksonville D-line on Kurt Warner and a solid running game from Jones-Drew.

Key Stats:
JAC are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
JAC are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
JAC are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Uh Oh, not good.

2009 YTD: 3-4 PLAYS OF THE DAY: 1-0
<!-- / message -->
 

New member
Joined
Oct 12, 2008
Messages
270
Tokens
Good luck Enfuego. I posted a reply on your colege thread so we can clear the air. I love your Tennn and Balt plays
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
PLAY OF THE DAY:

OAKLAND RAIDERS +1

BEST OF THE REST:

TENNESSEE TITANS +1
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -5.5
MINNESOTA VIKES -7
DETROIT LIONS +7

2009 YTD: 6-6 PLAYS OF THE DAY: 1-1
<!-- / message -->
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
DALLAS/CAROLINA UNDER 48

2009 YTD: 8-9 PLAYS OF THE DAY: 1-2
<!-- / message -->
 

New member
Joined
Jul 28, 2009
Messages
1,066
Tokens
Oh I see now!!! LOL You had Baltimore!! LOL Nice try at that one, looks like your jets one is doing good too!! GOod luck with the rest of them!
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
Minnesota -11
nyg -16
washington +4
buffalo -7
philly -16.5
baltimore -10
indy -3.5
pittsburgh -12

2009 ytd: 11-12 plays of the day: 2-2
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
Atlanta falcons -3
nyj -10
pittsburgh -15
cinci -5
minnesota -2.5

2009 ytd: 16-15 plays of the day: 3-2
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
Indianapolis -15
green bay -10
atlanta +5
new orleans -7
new england -16

2009 ytd: 18-18 plays of the day: 4-2
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
DALLAS -9.5
NYJ -3
NYG -1.5
ARIZONA -10
ST. LOUIS +4
GB -3
BALTIMORE -4

2009 YTD: 22-19 PLAYS OF THE DAY: 5-2
<!-- / message -->
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
Play of the day:
Nyg -5

best of the rest:

New orleans -14
dallas +2.5
new england -12
indianapolis -10

2009 ytd: 25-23 plays of the day: 6-2
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
Play of the day:
New orleans -14

best of the rest:
Detroit +17
carolina pk
washington +3
nyj -7

2009 ytd: 26-27 plays of the day: 6-3
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
Play of the day:
Minnesota -11.5

best of the rest:
Green bay -6.5
dallas -12
arizona -10
pittsburgh -11.5

2009 ytd: 28-29-1 plays of the day: 6-4
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
Play of the day:
Chicago -9.5

best of the rest:
Washington +9.5
tennessee +6.5
carolina -5
seattle +1

2009 ytd: 29-33-1 plays of the day: 7-4
 

Member
Joined
May 27, 2007
Messages
39,464
Tokens
PLAY OF THE DAY:
MINNESOTA -6

BEST OF THE REST:
DALLAS -3
BALTIMORE -15
DENVER +7
ARIZONA -3
CHICAGO +4.5
BUFFALO -1
SEATTLE +8
TENNESSEE -14
CAROLINA +14

2009 YTD: 32-35-1 PLAYS OF THE DAY: 7-5
<!-- / message -->
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,875
Messages
13,574,531
Members
100,879
Latest member
am_sports
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com