Elimination League! Help Please.

[s4shadow]

Again, I'm in a 58 man league with 1 re-buy (i'm 3-0 so far but I don't know whether I should look for a sleeper or a heavy dog..there's so many variables to consider: strength of schedule, bye weeks, etc). I don't know whether to play a small dog/fav or save a team for later. Any help or suggestions would be greatly appreciated guys. Picking the Giants last night would have been great! lol..but oh well. Here's my first 3 weeks.. (i have to submit my pick by Saturday night 10pm CST)


Week 1: Jets
Week 2: Redskins
Week 3: Patriots
Week 4: ???

 

[Donkwin47]

I have had a similar start to what you have... I used the Jets, Redskins, and Bengals (None laying more than a TD). This will likely be the first week I take the biggest favorite (SD, favored by 13.5). We've been able to save Den, Sea, GB, SF, NE (for me) and other teams like that which will be consistently favored in games down the stretch. I saved Pats last week because they may come in handy week 7 or 8 when most games will have very close spreads and they will be at home, possibly in a more favorable spot than most. If not SD this week, a lot lf people will use Indy and Pit. I think one or both of those could fall, eliminating a good chunk of people, so I will pass and use SD who will likely not be a bigger favorite than they are this week at any point later in the season. GL.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Tred lightly with SD. Jags are bad ya I know. But they won't be quite the same team they have been so far this year and have their supposed "future" playing at QB. SD has 0 RBs. And no, I don't count Donald Brown as a valid RB. I had SD penciled in at the start of the season but now I'm looking for an alternate.

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Take a long hard look at Baltimore and New Orleans.

 

[Hamilbet]

I have won a couple of these over the years. My method is always play to get to next week. Don't save teams. Just pick a winner this week and don't over think it.

 

[buda21711]

Went with Pitt with a lot of my pools...San D the obvious choice but I like to think these things out...plus a ton of peeps will have them. Hope for the upset..

 

[ibex]

Took SD as used Pitt already and do not trust in Indy. Everything else is a crapshoot.

 

[s4shadow]

Take a long hard look at Baltimore and New Orleans.

Are you leaning towards upset or do you like Baltimore and New Orleans?

 

[Biz]

If Locker doesn't play Indy isn't losing to Charlie Whitehurst

 

[s4shadow]

I ended up picking the Cowboys..why do I already feel like I've made a terrible mistake?

 

[WormyPix]

Against the Saints? Well, you've already gone w/very big gambles IMO in NYJ & WAS, so why change now? If you survive again this wk you'll be in a great position.

 

[s4shadow]

Against the Saints? Well, you've already gone w/very big gambles IMO in NYJ & WAS, so why change now? If you survive again this wk you'll be in a great position.

at least it's the night game..so I can't be eliminated all day long

 

[s4shadow]

Cowboys got errr done! 4-0. Thanks for the tips everybody. Still a long way to go, but the Pittsburgh loss definitely knocked out a few more.

 

[Donkwin47]

Cowboys got errr done! 4-0. Thanks for the tips everybody. Still a long way to go, but the Pittsburgh loss definitely knocked out a few more.

Said it in the first reply I had a feeling either Indy or Pit would fall. Surprised you went with Cowboys. Seems like an unnecessary risk early in week 4. Even though they were my biggest play of the season catching points, would never use them in survivor in that spot. Congrats. I used Chargers and that was easy. On to week 5.

 

[Biz]

Cowboys got errr done! 4-0. Thanks for the tips everybody. Still a long way to go, but the Pittsburgh loss definitely knocked out a few more.

Nice job. I told you Indy wasn't losing, and they won in a blow out. Pittsburgh took a lot of people out, which is what you were looking for. They had many starters out, exactly the type of favorite you don't take in these pools. GL going forward.

 

[ibex]

Week #5 has a nice spread of choices, there should be more attrition this week.

 

[Dan2330]

Won a big Survivor pool a few years back and followed it up with a deep run the next year. My 2 biggest rules, which I have seen a lot of others also do are 1) try to avoid conference games and 2) avoid home dogs. I use these two rules as long as I can, at some point in the season you will have no choice. I also like looking at the Survivor Grid site, the 'future value' section is worth peeking at. Link below:
http://www.survivorgrid.com/

 

[s4shadow]

Thanks for the tips guys. On to week 5. Any early leans? Thought about GB @ home for the Thursday night game but I've been trying to avoid Thursday nights (plus GB at home will probably have some future value)..I should get an updated sheet with all survivor results by tomorrow. I can email it to you guys. As always, I appreciate any help I can get. If anyone wants to send me theirs or we can find someway to post/share it with each other, maybe we can all help each other. Lemme know!

 

[s4shadow]

Won a big Survivor pool a few years back and followed it up with a deep run the next year. My 2 biggest rules, which I have seen a lot of others also do are 1) try to avoid conference games and 2) avoid home dogs. I use these two rules as long as I can, at some point in the season you will have no choice. I also like looking at the Survivor Grid site, the 'future value' section is worth peeking at. Link below:
http://www.survivorgrid.com/

thanks man...should a 3rd rule be "avoid Thursday night games if possible"...lol

 

[Vandelay22]

s4, glad you started this thread. I'm still in my pool as well. There were 8500 to start and down to 2950 entering week 5. It was $100 an entry, so a lot of money in the pool. I'm thinking GB this week also. Detriot might work too.