Electoral vote projection by TradeSports on 5/31.

PatPatriot · May 31, 2004

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, May 31, 2004

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 95.0 9 0
Alaska 93.0 3 0
Arizona 68.0 10 0
Arkansas 71.0 6 0
California 13.0 0 55
Colorado 78.0 9 0
Connecticut 9.0 0 7
Delaware 20.0 0 3
District of Columbia 0.5 0 3
Florida 58.0 27 0
Georgia 93.0 15 0
Hawaii 8.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 16.0 0 21
Indiana 91.0 11 0
Iowa 46.0 0 7
Kansas 93.0 6 0
Kentucky 90.0 8 0
Louisiana 80.0 9 0
Maine 19.0 0 4
Maryland 11.0 0 10
Massachusetts 2.0 0 12
Michigan 36.0 0 17
Minnesota 33.0 0 10
Mississippi 95.0 6 0
Missouri 63.0 11 0
Montana 93.0 3 0
Nebraska 96.0 5 0
Nevada 63.0 5 0
New Hampshire 53.0 4 0
New Jersey 19.0 0 15
New Mexico 53.0 5 0
New York 8.0 0 31
North Carolina 85.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 57.0 20 0
Oklahoma 95.0 7 0
Oregon 44.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 51.0 21 0
Rhode Island 3.0 0 4
South Carolina 90.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 87.0 11 0
Texas 95.0 34 0
Utah 95.0 5 0
Vermont 4.0 0 3
Virginia 82.0 13 0
Washington 25.0 0 11
West Virginia 66.0 5 0
Wisconsin 41.0 0 10
Wyoming 95.0 3 0
Totals 304 234
Bush Kerry

JayHarn3 · May 31, 2004

it's funny how you ignored the most respected pollster when zogby had the almost complete opposite total.

lander · May 31, 2004

This is coming down to 3 states.

Florida - The Bush mafia should be able to steal this one again.
Pennsylvania - Flip a coin
Ohio - Bush has an edge, but an Ohio VP nomination from Kerry could swing it.

PatPatriot · May 31, 2004

Jay... this is a tradesport poll not mine so if you got a bitch...as they say in the northeast...take it up with them and put your fxckin money where your mouth is.

lander · May 31, 2004

Pat,
In your opinion, which states are truly up for grabs?

Would you throw Louisiana or Oregon (if Nader's on the ticket) in that group?

PatPatriot · May 31, 2004

I wouldn't be surprized to see Texas and Massachusetts up for grabs...lol.

I've heard some polls say Cal. is a statistical dead heat.

Bush losing in Indiana.

I think there will be some surprises...the problem with these polls,basically the same people are asked...I've never been asked a poll Q in my life.

Both states that you mention up for grabs La. with a large black vote.

lander · May 31, 2004

Interesting.

I've never seen the Zolby's (or whatever the poll guy is named) poll from 2000 vs. the actually results.

I'd like to see how close he really was.

PatPatriot · May 31, 2004

Yeah its Zogby...he was the most accurate in 2000...so he new poll hero.

Seymour · May 31, 2004

Zogby has it 320 - 218 for Kerry and Kerry winning Florida.

ChuckSims · May 31, 2004

The Zogby poll would be the one to look at. Tradesport is not a projection. I could make Bush the favorite in NY if I put enough money on it. Bush and his religious nut cronies are out come Nov.