Election Night 2008 - In gamer

[Uno]

Just wanted to be the one who started it.

Should be a short thread tho... Obama in a land slide.

 

[D2bets]

Anyone know what time the first set of exit polling is expected to come rolling in?

 

[Preussen]

Any half-time results yet? ;-)

 

[D2bets]

Obama just hit all-time high at Intrade of 92.7.

 

[BetIt]

per Marc Ambinder

On The Exit Polls

1. The quarantine this year is supposed to really be a quarantine -- no blackberries, no cell phone, no nothing, until 5:00 pm ET. So anyone who claims to have exit poll data before then is either lying or has really, really good sources.

2. The problem with the exit polls has never really been a problem with the exit polls. They've been a problem with people incorrectly interpreting the exit polls; people who don't know what the exit polls actually are.

3. The final weighted exit polls from the primaries were mostly accurate; the first and second wave data flights that most people think are those weighted exit polls were just first and second wave data.

4. The networks won't make projections simply based on the exit polls; they'll wait until precinct real vote comes in, combine with their data, and go from there.

 

[D2bets]

per Marc Ambinder

On The Exit Polls

1. The quarantine this year is supposed to really be a quarantine -- no blackberries, no cell phone, no nothing, until 5:00 pm ET. So anyone who claims to have exit poll data before then is either lying or has really, really good sources.

2. The problem with the exit polls has never really been a problem with the exit polls. They've been a problem with people incorrectly interpreting the exit polls; people who don't know what the exit polls actually are.

3. The final weighted exit polls from the primaries were mostly accurate; the first and second wave data flights that most people think are those weighted exit polls were just first and second wave data.

4. The networks won't make projections simply based on the exit polls; they'll wait until precinct real vote comes in, combine with their data, and go from there.

Thank you.

 

[Uno]

so geeked.

 

[BetIt]

great cheatsheet via campaigndiaries.com

Election night cheat sheet

November 4, 2008<!-- by Taniel --> · No Comments

Here is guide to follow tonight’s results, with every race that will be worth calling tonight arranged by poll closing time. In addition to the 51 separate presidential match-ups, 35 Senates seats and 11 gubernatorial contests, this list includes a grand total of 109 House races! (A more detailed guideline of what to expect - and a call for prediction - here.)​

Of course, not all congressional contests are born equal, so I have colored all Senate, House and Governor races that are rated in the most vulnerable categories (anywhere from lean retention to likely take-over) so you can get a better sense of where to focus your attention. Keep an eye especially on Florida, Ohio and New York as there are a lot of tight House races in those three states.

​

Most of the attention will likely be devoted to the presidential race, however. But I do not see the point in predicting what each candidate needs to accomplish at the different hours. These times indicate when polls close, not at what time we should expect to get results. Some states - some counties! - are extremely slow at reporting, others are much quicker. If Obama wins Indiana, for instance, it is unlikely he can pull ahead before Gary County reports - and we learned on May 6th that Gary County does not like to report any results before the rest of the country has been reduced to hysteria because of the excruciating wait. That said, we should know fairly quickly whether we are heading towards an Obama landslide or if results are much tighter than polls predicted.

​

6pm ET
​

Kentucky (parts of the state close at 7pm ET): President, Senate, KY-02, KY-03
Indiana (parts of the state close at 7pm ET): President, Governor, IN-03, IN-08, IN-09

7pm ET
​

Florida (panhandle closes at 8pm ET): President, FL-08, FL-13, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, Question 1 (marriage amendment)
Georgia: President, Senate, GA-08, GA-12
New Hampshire (in some localities, option to keep polls open until 8pm): President, Senate, Governor, NH-01, NH-02
South Carolina: President, Senate, SC-01, SC-02
Vermont: President, Governor
Virginia: President, Senate, VA-02,VA-05, VA-10,VA-11

7:30pm ET
​

North Carolina (county boards have right to keep polls open until 8:30): President, Senate, Governor, NC-05, NC-08, NC-10
Ohio: President, OH-01, OH-02, OH-07, OH-14, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18
West Virginia: President, Senate, Governor, WV-02

8pm ET​

Alabama: President, Senate, AL-02, AL-03, AL-05
Connecticut: President, CT-04, CT-05
Delaware: President, Senate, Governor
DC: President
Illinois: President, Senate, IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14, IL-18
Maine: President (at large, 1st district, 2nd district), Senate, ME-02
Maryland: President, MD-01
Massachusetts: President, Senate, Question 1 (income tax)
Michigan: President, Senate, MI-07, MI-08, MI-09
Mississippi: President, Senate A, Senate B, MS-01
Missouri: President, Governor, MO-06, MO-09
New Jersey: President, Senate, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07
Oklahoma: President, Senate
Pennsylvania: President, PA-03, PA-04, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, PA-15, PA-18
Tennessee: President, Governor
Texas (El Paso area closes at 9pm ET): President, Senate, TX-07, TX-10, TX-22, TX-23

8:30pm ET
​

Arkansas: President, Senate

9pm ET
​

Arizona: President, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08, marriage amendment
Colorado: President, Senate, CO-04, Amendment 46 (affirmative action), Amendment 48 (definition of “person”)
Kansas: President, Senate, KS-02, KS-03
Louisiana: President, Senate, LA-04, LA-06, LA-07
Minnesota: President, Senate, MN-01, MN-02, MN-03, MN-06
Nebraska: President (at large, 1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district), Senate, NE-02
New Mexico: President, Senate, NM-01, NM-02
New York: President, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, state Senate
Rhode Island: President, Senate
South Dakota: President, Senate, Initiated Measure 11 (abortion)
Wisconsin: President, WI-08
Wyoming: President, Senate A, Senate B, WY-AL

10pm ET
​

Idaho (parts of the state close at 11pm ET): President, ID-01
Iowa: President, Senate, IA-04
Montana: President, Senate, Governor
Nevada: President, NV-02, NV-03
North Dakota: President, Governor
Utah: President

11pm ET
​

California: President, CA-03, CA-04, CA-11, CA-26, CA-45, CA-46, CA-50, Prop 1 (transit), Prop 4 (parental notification), Prop 8 (gay marriage)
Hawaii: President
Oregon: President, Senate, OR-05
Washington: President, Governor, WA-05, WA-08

1am ET
​

Alaska: President, Senate, AK-AL

Note on closing times: Polls in some states do not close at the same time, either because of differing time zones or because of longer hours in urban areas. I have here listed these state at the time we should expect to start seeing the first results, not the time at which all polls close. In Florida, for instance, networks might not want to make any calls before all polls close at 8pm ET, but if past patterns hold today some counties should start releasing totals after 7pm ET. I have tried to indicate in which states such problems can arise.​

 

[Redneckman]

Thanks, Betit.

 

[Cracker]

First Polls close in 3 hours!

 

[whalewager]

He isn't and will not be my president. No matter how many balls uno has.

 

[Addict101]

Won't be as big of a landslide as Reagen back in the day.

I know, weird how a republican absolutely dominated mofo's.

 

[Cracker]

Probably going to closer than people think.

 

[Uno]

Probably going to closer than people think.

haha, what makes you think that? by close do you mean less than 100 votes??

 

[Cracker]

What is the spread?

 

[Uno]

wow... obama with a huge early lead in florida...

is this over if obama gets florida?

 

[Uno]

i thought mccain might lose indiana but so far so good...

 

[Uno]

mccain 8
obama 3

 

[Uno]

10 point early lead for obama in florida...

i am getting ready to call it...

georgia is a 40% lead for mccain.. getting ready to call it as well.

 

[2PLAYSMAX]

Interesting website off NY times. Basically gives what states were expected to go to which candidate easily, narrowly...


http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/votes.html