Interesting article
For decades, political scientists and economists have concocted statistical models to try to predict presidential elections even before the actual campaigns were under way. Their aim wasn't merely to pull off the parlor trick of predicting a winner; more important (to them, at least) was figuring out what makes voters tick. Their underlying theory was that most voters' behavior stems from a combination of fundamental factors and not from anything the candidates say or do.
Abramowitz's model, for example, uses three factors: economic growth, the current president's popularity, and how long the incumbent party has held the White House.
Starting with that last item: It's hard for one party to keep the White House for a third term, as Hillary Clinton is trying to do. It's only been done once in the last half century, when George H.W. Bush succeeded the popular Ronald Reagan in 1988. Abramowitz calls this the “time for a change” factor, and it puts the presumptive Democratic nominee at a significant disadvantage.
Right now, the economic fundamentals don't look good for Clinton either. Most forecasts suggest that growth will remain well below 3% all year, a sluggish rate that favors the party out of power.
....
Now add a new factor: Trump.
A model like Abramowitz's “doesn't take into account attributes of the candidates. It captures arguably the most important things, but not everything,” Sides told me.
...
Trump isn't just disrupting the Republican Party, he's disrupting political science too.
For decades, political scientists and economists have concocted statistical models to try to predict presidential elections even before the actual campaigns were under way. Their aim wasn't merely to pull off the parlor trick of predicting a winner; more important (to them, at least) was figuring out what makes voters tick. Their underlying theory was that most voters' behavior stems from a combination of fundamental factors and not from anything the candidates say or do.
Abramowitz's model, for example, uses three factors: economic growth, the current president's popularity, and how long the incumbent party has held the White House.
Starting with that last item: It's hard for one party to keep the White House for a third term, as Hillary Clinton is trying to do. It's only been done once in the last half century, when George H.W. Bush succeeded the popular Ronald Reagan in 1988. Abramowitz calls this the “time for a change” factor, and it puts the presumptive Democratic nominee at a significant disadvantage.
Right now, the economic fundamentals don't look good for Clinton either. Most forecasts suggest that growth will remain well below 3% all year, a sluggish rate that favors the party out of power.
....
Now add a new factor: Trump.
A model like Abramowitz's “doesn't take into account attributes of the candidates. It captures arguably the most important things, but not everything,” Sides told me.
...
Trump isn't just disrupting the Republican Party, he's disrupting political science too.
