El Taino's west coast football week 2

[ElTaino]

2-2 ytd +2.8 units

1 unit (action play) 1-2
2 unit (decent play) 0-0
3 unit (good play) 0-0
4 unit (strong play) 1-0
6 unit (GOW/GOY) 0-0

*i use 1 unit as 1% of bankroll so if you have a 10k bankroll, 1 unit = $100*

well with week 1 almost in the books we saw both good and bad across the country.

that being said, one of the early lines that jumps out at me is

fresno st (+9) at wisconsin

if we look at each teams last games you will find that fresno beat a bad uc davis (fcs) team at home 51-0 and wisky, although up 28-6 at the end of the 3rd quarter struggled on defense late on let NIU make it close at 28-20. if you look at this line, it seems about right, but under further examination not so much.

fresno, although maybe only the 2nd or 3rd best team in the wac, is a team wisky should be cautious of. on offense, fresno has two 205lbs RB's who love to pound and after wisky gave up 64 yards on 11 carries to a 5'7" 170lbs NIU RB the question is if the wisky LB's can actually stop the run. fresno also has big WR's that should pose a problem because wisky wont have an advantage in size here like they do against most teams

on defense, this is the fist time in years that fresno has big, physical LB's that can stop the run... and what does wisconsin do best... run, about 60-40. also wisconsin's star WR isaac anderson may be in for an all day battle giving up 3 inches and 15 pounds to the arguably faster, quicker, all american DB aj jefferson.

add in the fact that wisconsin needed some magic to pull out a 13-10 win at fresno last year against essentially the same fresno team and fresnos knack for showing up in big games i think getting 9 is a great value. with revenge on their minds who knows what could happen. with that, im going to wait to see if it moves up to 10 in the coming days.

also another early line i like is usc -5 although i think it will be much closer than people think. maybe 24-14. more to come

 

[ElTaino]

just so we get locked in early

usc -5 (4 units)

holding off on fresno st to see if the line moves to 10 but will be a 3 unit play

 

[ElTaino]

other games im looking at now


wash st +2.5
ore st -7.5

also texas 1h (if when line comes out it 20 or less)

 

[ElTaino]

ore st -7.5 is a winner in the waiting. or you might think. you could even buy the 1/2 point for more security. but i wont. this is because oregon st struggles away from home. throw in that unlv has a ton of JC transfers who have not only had playing time the past two years, but brought with them a winning attitude and you might find a cover. unlv shut down sac st just about as well as oregon st shut down portland st. unlv offense even looked decent at times. im taking the points and homefield advantage

unlv +7.5 (1 unit)

 

[Conan]

I caught that Fresno line too El Tiano.

Almost hit the Bulldogs but I'd at least like to read the Fresno Bee first. Pat Hill does well OOC. It's the WAC schedule that he doesn't care about. Fool.

 

[ElTaino]

I caught that Fresno line too El Tiano.

Almost hit the Bulldogs but I'd at least like to read the Fresno Bee first. Pat Hill does well OOC. It's the WAC schedule that he doesn't care about. Fool.

im guessing it will go to +10 and when it does i'll jump on it. funny you say that, im on sac bee now, moving over to the fresno paper

 

[Conan]

ore st -7.5 is a winner in the waiting. or you might think. you could even buy the 1/2 point for more security. but i wont. this is because oregon st struggles away from home. throw in that unlv has a ton of JC transfers who have not only had playing time the past two years, but brought with them a winning attitude and you might find a cover. unlv shut down sac st just about as well as oregon st shut down portland st. unlv offense even looked decent at times. im taking the points and homefield advantage

unlv +7.5 (1 unit)

I wouldn't go as far as saying Oregon St. plays poorly on the road. I'd say they play poorly on the road when they play real competition and before their lines have had time to gel. Too much yin and yang for me to sort through too fast. That QB from Portland State last week was pretty sharp. But the Beaver defense looked good, real good. Quizz and Quan owned that game and left early.

Hard to tell what this line means. It appears that the bookmakers are trying to sell UNLV with that half-point hook. The greek has the game at 8½. Their lines are usually sharper to attempt to drive off the sharps. That's a vote for the Beavers. I remain uncommitted for now. Careful not to underestimate Oregon St. That always always seems to happen. They took it to Zona in a tight one last year @ Zona. This one should be a lot easier. I'm not up on UNLV's defense. That will make or break your wager.

 

[ElTaino]

2 articles from fresno bee

<H4>Dogs football post game notes</H4>
In just 1 1/2 quarters, Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews rushed 11 times for a game-high 106 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown. He was removed midway through the second quarter in favor of Bulldogs backups once Fresno State had the game locked up.
With Fresno State doing as it pleased most of the night, several Bulldogs backups received playing time. Of the reserves, true freshman Robbie Rouse stood out with 10 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. The 5-foot-7, 185-pound Rouse also provided countless spins and bounces off several defenders when running up field. The Bulldogs had 29 different players assist in a tackle. Fresno State continued its annual trend of blocking kicks when receiver Devon Wylie flew in from the left side to swat a punt in the third quarter. The Bulldogs blocked six kicks last year.


and

Fresno State linebacker Nico Herron wants everyone to know that the Bulldogs defense is back.
Defensive end Chris Carter says the Bulldogs have improved tremendously.
Both backed up their words in Fresno State's 51-0 rout of UC Davis in Saturday's season opener at Bulldog Stadium.
The Bulldogs recorded their first shutout since October 2007 (30-0 against San Jose State) and held the Aggies to 231 total yards and 12 first downs. By halftime, Fresno State was emptying its bench.
"One thing we felt we lacked last year at times was the defense wasn't always consistent," said Carter, a two-year starter.
"This year, we want to show we've made some tremendous upgrades in the offseason. We just want to dominate the entire season."
The last time Fresno State's defense was on display, the Bulldogs allowed then-Colorado State running back Gartrell Johnson to set an NCAA bowl record with 375 yards from scrimmage, including a career-high 285 rushing yards and two touchdowns in last year's New Mexico Bowl.
Granted, UC Davis, a Football Championship Subdivision team, is far from being equivalent to Colorado State.
But Fresno State's defense looked far from being the Bulldogs' defense of the past.
Case in point: When the Bulldogs needed a crucial stop with UC Davis 10 yards from scoring and possibly reducing Fresno State's lead to one score, Herron intercepted a Greg Denham pass and ran it back for a 94-yard touchdown.
It was Herron's first career touchdown -- even through his elementary school days -- and put Fresno State ahead 21-0 with 7:38 left in the second quarter.
"It was a huge play, came at a critical time, a 14-point swing," Herron said. "First score ever in my life. It was tiring. Tiring. Real, real tiring."
Fresno State was ahead 35-0 by halftime and reserves went in to start the second half.
And still, the Bulldogs held the Aggies to 71 total yards after halftime, with 29 players assisting in at least one tackle by the end of the night.
"I was really proud of our young defensive players," coach Pat Hill said. "They went in and kept that shutout alive. [We] got a lot of young players a lot of playing time."

 

[ElTaino]

I wouldn't go as far as saying Oregon St. plays poorly on the road. I'd say they play poorly on the road when they play real competition and before their lines have had time to gel. Too much yin and yang for me to sort through too fast. That QB from Portland State last week was pretty sharp. But the Beaver defense looked good, real good. Quizz and Quan owned that game and left early.

Hard to tell what this line means. It appears that the bookmakers are trying to sell UNLV with that half-point hook. The greek has the game at 8½. Their lines are usually sharper to attempt to drive off the sharps. That's a vote for the Beavers. I remain uncommitted for now. Careful not to underestimate Oregon St. That always always seems to happen. They took it to Zona in a tight one last year @ Zona. This one should be a lot easier. I'm not up on UNLV's defense. That will make or break your wager.

i agree that the rodgers bros are amazing, but that ore st is only 7.5 seems a little fishy. as an action play with other big plays going that day, im going to stick it out with a live dog and take a small shot. i'll be :smoker2: for sure

 

[ElTaino]

also, the unlv qb looked sharp and the new tailback for unlv has some live legs. even if they dont cover (as ore st is the better team) i still think it will be very interesting and telling of the mtn west and what mtn west wagers i make in the future. plus if im going to the game i need a side right? :toast)

 

[Incubus]

ore st -7.5 is a winner in the waiting. or you might think. you could even buy the 1/2 point for more security. but i wont. this is because oregon st struggles away from home. throw in that unlv has a ton of JC transfers who have not only had playing time the past two years, but brought with them a winning attitude and you might find a cover. unlv shut down sac st just about as well as oregon st shut down portland st. unlv offense even looked decent at times. im taking the points and homefield advantage

unlv +7.5 (1 unit)

Good luck El Taino, but I have to disagree. I really think Oregon State -7 (buy the hook) is the play here.

Granted, OSU have dropped their last 6 road openers. However, UNLV is nowhere the class of Stanford (2008), Cincinnati (2007), Boise State (2006), Louisville (2005), LSU (2004), Fresno State (2003) - these were the past 6 road openers.

I think QB Moevao and RB Jacquizz Rodgers will be the crucial difference here for OSU. Rodgers could have a MONSTER night. I also rate a huge coaching edge to Riley over UNLV's Mike Sanford.

I predict it will be very close for perhaps a 1/2 or even late into the 3rd, but the Beavers will eventually wear down the Rebels and pull away in the 4th. 10 point or more victory is not out of the question.

Good luck, nevertheless! :toast:

BTW, I already bet USC -5 over Ohio State. I was simply shocked to see this line so low. This looks like an absolute gift!

 

[ElTaino]

Good luck El Taino, but I have to disagree. I really think Oregon State -7 (buy the hook) is the play here.

Granted, OSU have dropped their last 6 road openers. However, UNLV is nowhere the class of Stanford (2008), Cincinnati (2007), Boise State (2006), Louisville (2005), LSU (2004), Fresno State (2003) - these were the past 6 road openers.

I think QB Moevao and RB Jacquizz Rodgers will be the crucial difference here for OSU. Rodgers could have a MONSTER night. I also rate a huge coaching edge to Riley over UNLV's Mike Sanford.

I predict it will be very close for perhaps a 1/2 or even late into the 3rd, but the Beavers will eventually wear down the Rebels and pull away in the 4th. 10 point or more victory is not out of the question.

Good luck, nevertheless! :toast:

BTW, I already bet USC -5 over Ohio State. I was simply shocked to see this line so low. This looks like an absolute gift!

thank you incubus. i fully understand where you are coming from on this, and i know that ore st should roll these guys. but why only 7.5? i'll bet the public will be on this 80-20. it just seems too easy, and i can see the ore st defense getting worn down by the rebels 200+lbs running back and that will open up holes in the secondary for a very accurate passer. for me its my smallest play of the week and i'd rather take the dog here than get burned by a "lock"

and yes, for me, anything under 7 in regards to usc is an absolute gift. BOL to you!:toast:

 

[ElTaino]

updates

fresno dropped to +8.5. still going to wait it out but if it hits 7.5 i will have to take it immediately

usc moved 1.5 to -6.5 in less that 12 hours. thats before most of the public even moved on the game. wow!

unlv down to +7, have to move now before it gets to +6.5

taino

 

[8ate]

Forget the first games of the year..>.
How can Ohio St keep Southern Cal Defence outta their backfield..>>

Total domination..>>true line USC -20

jmho

and I am big Buckeye fan..>>

Getting fired up; tuff practices ;home field; USC playing true frosh qb on road for first big g.; etc. ; cannot change the fact that this is men vs. boys type g.

jmho
gl

 

[ElTaino]

Forget the first games of the year..>.
How can Ohio St keep Southern Cal Defence outta their backfield..>>

Total domination..>>true line USC -20

jmho

and I am big Buckeye fan..>>

Getting fired up; tuff practices ;home field; USC playing true frosh qb on road for first big g.; etc. ; cannot change the fact that this is men vs. boys type g.

jmho
gl

i fully agree with you about the offensive line. i think that galippo and the rest of the usc LB's mouths must be watering after they saw the gaps navy created and how much pryor had to scramble. im not sure how the barkley will do in a hostile environment, but he has played on national TV before and to my surprize was very poised and made good decisions last week. although if it was -20, i'd have to take my chances with OSU.

 

[ElTaino]

meanwhile on the east coast

CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP)—Miami defensive back Ryan Hill and safety Vaughn Telemaque have been listed as “out” for Monday night’s season-opener at No. 18 Florida State.
Hill and Telemaque each suffered shoulder injuries in Saturday’s practice, the last formal workout for the Hurricanes before the opener. Each walked off the field with ice strapped to their shoulders and were examined afterward by team physicians.
<!-- article-left_skinny -->
Specifics of their injuries were not revealed, and the school listed them only as “upper extremity” issues.
Also out for Miami: defensive end Adewale Ojomo, offensive lineman Cory White and linebacker Levi Paalua. Defensive end Eric Moncur was upgraded to “doubtful” with a groin injury.
“We feel healthy, we feel good,” Miami coach Randy Shannon said after practice, when asked about the overall health of the team. “All you can do.”
The Hurricanes previously announced that defensive end Gavin Hardin and linebacker Shayon Green will miss the season because of injury.


thats a TON of people out on defense for miami. as an action play and to fade, im going to go out on a limb and say that with so many defenders out for miami, i think that FSU will pound it out on the ground and wear down the miami defense.

florida st -6 (1 unit)

 

[Conan]

Just what is it about Ohio St.? Is it their storied reputation or what? I don't get what is supporting the line unless it's just a WHOLE mess of east coast squares and alums.

They are simply not the same elite force they once were. Twice they got blown out in a NC game they shouldn't have even played in and they are getting WAY too much respect here.

And what about all that we had been hearing about OSU's losses and how Pryor was left basically alone in their backfield and at their other skill positions? Army's defense giving them a hard time? Well it follows that they would do that, doesn't it?

Something's really fishy here. Either there are suckers aplenty out there who are propping up OSU like a heard of lemmings headed over a cliff or I'm the sucker. I swear I am 99.9999% sure that Barkley and his teammates will have themselves a fun day at the Horseshoe.

 

[ElTaino]

Just what is it about Ohio St.? Is it their storied reputation or what? I don't get what is supporting the line unless it's just a WHOLE mess of east coast squares and alums.

They are simply not the same elite force they once were. Twice they got blown out in a NC game they shouldn't have even played in and they are getting WAY too much respect here.

And what about all that we had been hearing about OSU's losses and how Pryor was left basically alone in their backfield and at their other skill positions? Army's defense giving them a hard time? Well it follows that they would do that, doesn't it?

Something's really fishy here. Either there are suckers aplenty out there who are propping up OSU like a heard of lemmings headed over a cliff or I'm the sucker. I swear I am 99.9999% sure that Barkley and his teammates will have themselves a fun day at the Horseshoe.

conan, i think its barkley on the road at the horseshoe that had a lot to do with the opening line as well as SJ state up 3-0 for the entire 1st quarter. the usc offense didnt really take off until SJ state put 8 in the box and thats when barkley got off. maybe they are banking on ohio st being able to stop the run with only 6 or 7 up front... but i dont see it.

how do you stop a 6 deep RB rotation (if they really wanted to) with really no drop off from 1 to 6? the first thing pete carroll did when he got to usc is recruited big OL and thats when they started winning. currently they are huge up front and that line could make an average back look like leroy hoard. but usc doesnt have average backs, they have amazing backs. if barkley can manage the game and not make big mistakes they could be comfortable at halftime. with that suspect OL will ohio st even sniff 20 points? doubt it. also, in regards to college football i really dont like to bring up game when current players werent there, but when is the last time ohio st manned up in a big OOC game?

 

[ElTaino]

just a quick update and an add

2-3 ytd +1.7 units

1 unit (action play) 1-3
2 unit (decent play) 0-0
3 unit (good play) 0-0
4 unit (strong play) 1-0
6 unit (GOW/GOY) 0-0

week 2 remaining games

usc -5 (4 units)
unlv +7.5 (1 unit)
fresno st (its at 8.5 but im waiting for 10) (3 units)
adding wash st ML +110 (2 units) and
i hate to jump on it late but
adding wash st/hawaii under 50.5 (1 unit)

i mean with hawaii barely able to handle a 1-aa team at home last week i just dont see them going into a climate that is 30 degrees cooler and 6 hours away from home and being able to score any points. not to mention the revenge factor

prediction
wash st 28
hawaii 10

BOL to all :toast:

 

[Right-Side]

I am not ready to back WSU with my money yet....but i think you have the right idea. Like the under though. BOL this week