EDT.TO/ Spectral medical

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Sitting on 212K at a $0.44 avg. Feel decent about that but need a mega homerun to make up for the opportunity cost on large caps that have been 3-10 baggers over short periods recently (without remotely close to the same level of risk as this micro cap).

Sense is bear case should be $1B market cap, which is a 5x from here.

Not sure why Paradigm is so low in its projections. Their NPV only goes ten years out, which I think is a flaw (albeit cash flows that far out are highly discounted anyways), and I also have trouble bridging their cash flow vs EBITDA per latest investor deck.
Good to see you're still in...long road no doubt.

I'm hoping for something more than 1 billion given what seems to be decent numbers and a growth in the eligible population....

600k plus here...with the majority bought in the 30s
 

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Paradigm updated their coverage to a buy.
You can email Paradigm for a copy.

Author : Scott McAuley, PhD, Analyst

expanded use numbers and new target price.

Going from 120,000 annual addressable patients with penetration of 35% (42,000 patients) to now using 280,000 patients at 20% penetration (56,000 patients)
 

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On a simple multiple
Paradigm updated their coverage to a buy.
You can email Paradigm for a copy.

Author : Scott McAuley, PhD, Analyst

expanded use numbers and new target price.

Going from 120,000 annual addressable patients with penetration of 35% (42,000 patients) to now using 280,000 patients at 20% penetration (56,000 patients)
Wow big!!! Still leaves tons of upside on increased penetration as well.
 

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On a simple multiple

Wow big!!! Still leaves tons of upside on increased penetration as well.

Getting the standard of care from the FDA would be huge..this type of gut sepsis with high endotoxin stands as untreatable barring standard antibiotics witch have a poor success rate....

Hang tight...

 

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Been a little weary of posting anything directly from analysis reports..some are just for paying clients...

This is copied off another board in reference to the Paradigm report mentioned above.

"In fairness, Paradigm is trying to walk a fine line of having Spectral as a client, while also being in charge of finding investors to purchase our paper. I definitely think they were way too conservative with their estimates, but I also undertand their desire to appear somewhat unbiased just prior to a raise. They do acknowledge how conservative they were being, and they offer this paragraph as a sort of mea culpa."

New Analysis Highlights Upside to Market Assumptions
The company also presented Incidence of Endotoxic Septic Shock in the U.S. and Canada. Additional
analysis of the prior EUPHRATES Phase 3 trial led to an updated estimate that ~37.3% of all septic
shock patients in Canada and the U.S. have endotoxic septic shock (ESS), which is defined by endotoxin activity assay (EAA) level >0.6. Based on different estimates of septic shock incidence in the U.S., anywhere from 180,000380,000 patients per year have this ESS subset of septic shock. We have been using a total endotoxemic septic shock market opportunity of 120,000 per year in our assumptions. Therefore, these new estimates provide 50217% upside to our market estimates.
 

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Great find. Thanks for sharing.

180K to 380K

How does that translate to 5000% relative to the 120K used?
 

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Great find. Thanks for sharing.

180K to 380K

How does that translate to 5000% relative to the 120K used?
just looked at the report..as I said the above was copied from another site.
Not positive how he came up with the %

Verbatim from the report: below.

"Updating Market Assumptions | Recent analysis by EDT indicates that the market
opportunity is likely larger than our initial estimate. We have been using 120,000
patients as the annual addressable market opportunity, with peak sales penetration
at 35% (42,000 patients). Updated analysis of the Phase 3 EUPHRATES data
presented at the Society of Critical Care Medicine’s Annual Congress suggests that
the market for endotoxemic septic shock could be between 180,000 and 380,000
patients per year. We have updated our peak estimates to be 20% of 280,000,
resulting in 56,000 patients per year."
 

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Trial completed at 156...
Should easy hit the year high today.
The longest clinical trial I've ever waited out.

Results forthcoming .


Whoop whoop
 

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"The Company is in the late stages of finalizing a non-dilutive financing with a view to be fully funded to PMX commercialization."

Great news..a bull statement
 

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Nice little bump this week.
 

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It may slip a bit in price....Next big inflection point is topline numbers, if those are good you'll see a major price increase. (early August) The call on the 15th of next month could be revealing and is open to investors, I suspect at that point they may disclose who's involved in the non dilutive financing . If it's CG? that will also be a price bump.

It's finally getting interesting here





Key Post-Tigris Enrollment Milestones

  • Total enrolled patients:
    • 157 total patients enrolled
      • 151 evaluable patients, 100 treated with PMX
    • 28-day follow-up for last patient enrolled to be completed on May 8, 2025
  • Release of topline results:
    • Data lock to be completed approximately 90 days after final patient 28-day follow-up
      • Expected release of topline results approximately 2 weeks post-data lock
    • PMA submission:
      • The Company’s Premarket Approval submission (“PMA”) is a modular approach, whereby non-clinical aspects are submitted separately from the clinical data
      • To-date the Company has submitted all non-clinical studies and reports to the US Food & Drug Administration (“FDA”) for evaluation
      • On track to submit the clinical results and reports by end of October 2025
  • Spectral Medical Tigris Trial and Corporate Update Call

    Chris Seto, Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. John Kellum, Chief Medical Officer, will host the call followed by a question-and-answer session. All interested parties are invited to participate.

    CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS:

    Date
    : Thursday May 15, 2025

    Time: 11:00 a.m. ET

    Dial-in: 1-877-407-0792 or 1-201-689-8263

    Call me™:https://callme.viavid.com/viavid/?callme=true&passcode=13744665&h=true&info=company&r=true&B=6

    Participants can use Guest dial-in #s above and be answered by an operator OR click the Call me link for instant telephone access to the event. *Available 15 minutes prior to scheduled start time.

    Replay Dial-in: 1-844-512-2921 or 1-412-317-6671
 

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How many “ummmms” from Kellum on this call?

Ummmm count:

Mark Carney @ leaders debate (-250)
John Kellum @ conference call (+190)
 

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How many “ummmms” from Kellum on this call?

Ummmm count:

Mark Carney @ leaders debate (-250)
John Kellum @ conference call (+190)


If it affirms a growing relationship with Vantive he's can "ummmmm"all he wants.

Any announcement would be more potent coming from the Vantive side as opposed to what is a little known company who's traded on the pink sheets....

Got the new analysis update..it's promising, teasing a + 15% benefit
 

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Great news...after borrowing 100 million plus over the years this is looking like the home stretch. 9% / 4 year loan with never see maturity .The call on the 15th should be telling .By August or earlier I'd think this is done once way or the other.



Non-Dilutive Financing

Up to US$10 Million Promissory Note Provided by Vantive

If Fully Drawn, Promissory Note is Expected to Fully Fund Spectral to PMX Commercialization

Company to host Corporate Update Call on May 15, 2025

TORONTO, May 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Spectral Medical Inc. (“Spectral” or the “Company”) (TSX: EDT), a late-stage theranostic company advancing therapeutic options for sepsis and septic shock, today announced that it has entered into a senior secured promissory note (the “Agreement”) with Vantive US Healthcare LLC (“Vantive”), in the aggregate principal amount of up to US$10 million.

Under the terms of the Agreement, Vantive may advance funds to Spectral in up to four separate tranches to support Spectral’s continued evidence generation strategy and path to commercialization of Toraymyxin™ (“PMX”). PMX is a blood filtration therapy that removes endotoxin, associated with sepsis, from the bloodstream.

The first tranche of US$4 million payable to Spectral was triggered on May 6, 2025 upon the execution of the Agreement. The milestones for the further three tranches are outlined in the Agreement as filed on SEDAR+.​

The primary terms of the Promissory Note are:

  • 4-year maturity
  • Payment-in-Kind (“PIK”) interest at an annual rate of 9%
  • Principal balance and PIK interest to be repaid at maturity
  • The Promissory Note is not convertible into any securities of the Company
Spectral does not anticipate requiring any additional funding to meet its upcoming key milestones, including release of topline results, U.S. FDA submission, and through to PMX commercialization.

“We are grateful to have such a committed partner in Vantive as we continue to advance PMX through the regulatory phase and, if ultimately approved, into commercialization,” said Chris Seto, CEO of Spectral. “Not only does this promissory note provide us with non-dilutive funding on Company-friendly terms, it also highlights the strength, confidence and alignment between Spectral and Vantive.”​

Paradigm Capital Inc. acted as financial advisor to Spectral in connection with this transaction.

A copy of the Agreement will be filed under Spectral’s profile on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

Spectral Medical Tigris Trial and Corporate Update Call

Chris Seto, Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. John Kellum, Chief Medical Officer, will host the call followed by a question-and-answer session. All interested parties are invited to participate.

CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS:

Date: Thursday May 15, 2025

Time: 11:00 a.m. ET

Dial-in: 1-877-407-0792 or 1-201-689-8263


Call meTM:https://callme.viavid.com/viavid/?callme=true&passcode=13744665&h=true&info=company&r=true&B=6

Participants can use Guest dial-in #s above and be answered by an operator OR click the Call me link for instant telephone access to the event. *Available 15 minutes prior to scheduled start time.

Replay Dial-in: 1-844-512-2921 or 1-412-317-6671

Available May 15, 2025, 3:00 p.m. ET, until May 29, 2025, 11:59 p.m. ET

Conference ID: 13753414

About Spectral

Spectral is a Phase 3 company seeking U.S. FDA approval for its unique product for the treatment of patients with septic shock, Toraymyxin™ (“PMX”). PMX is a therapeutic hemoperfusion device that removes endotoxin, which can cause sepsis, from the bloodstream and is guided by the Company’s FDA cleared Endotoxin Activity Assay (EAA™), the clinically available test for endotoxin in blood.

PMX is approved for therapeutic use in Japan and Europe and has been used safely and effectively over 360,000 times to date. In March 2009, Spectral obtained the exclusive development and commercial rights in the U.S. for PMX, and in November 2010, signed an exclusive distribution agreement for this product in Canada. In July 2022, the U.S. FDA granted Breakthrough Device Designation for PMX for the treatment of endotoxic septic shock. Approximately 330,000 patients are diagnosed with septic shock in North America each year.

The Tigris Trial is a confirmatory study of PMX in addition to standard care vs standard care alone and is designed as a 2:1 randomized trial of 150 patients using Bayesian statistics. Endotoxic septic shock is a malignant form of sepsis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RANrHHi9L8.

The trial methods are detailed in “Bayesian methods: a potential path forward for sepsis trials”.​

Spectral is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol EDT. For more information, please visit www.spectraldx.com.

Forward-looking statement

Informationinthisnewsreleasethatisnotcurrentorhistoricalfactualinformationmayconstituteforward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Implicit in this information, particularly in respect of the future outlook of Spectral and anticipated events or results, are assumptions based on beliefs of Spectral's senior managementaswellasinformationcurrentlyavailabletoit.Whiletheseassumptionswereconsideredreasonable by Spectral at the time of preparation, they may prove to be incorrect. Readers are cautioned that actual results aresubjecttoanumberofrisksanduncertainties,includingtheavailabilityoffundsandresourcestopursueR&D projects, the successful and timely completion of clinical studies, the ability of Spectral to take advantage of business opportunities in the biomedical industry, the granting of necessary approvals by regulatory authorities as well as general economic, market and business conditions, and could differ materially from what is currently expected.

The TSX has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this statement.

For further information, please contact:​

ti

Spectral-Medical-Inc-.png
 

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Looking real good here. Top line number in August should tell anyone everything they need to know about market viability.


Spectral Medical Announces First Quarter and Provides Corporate Update​


T.EDT | 2 hours ago
  • Tigris Trial Enrollment completed
  • Topline results expected to be released in August 2025
  • Entered into an up to US$10 million Promissory Note with Vantive to Fund Spectral to PMX commercialization
TORONTO, May 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Spectral Medical Inc. (“Spectral” or the “Company”) (TSX: EDT), a late-stage theranostic company advancing therapeutic options for sepsis and septic shock, today announced its financial results for the first quarter and provided a corporate update.
The Company made significant progress throughout the first quarter of 2025, both clinically and operationally. Specifically, regarding its Tigris trial, a Phase III clinical trial evaluating PMX for endotoxic septic shock. The Company recently completed full enrollment of its Tigris trial, and is expected to be in a position to share the topline results in the third quarter of this year and bringing the Company closer to U.S. FDA submission and potential U.S. FDA approval. In parallel to its clinical trial, the Company continues to work closely with its commercialization partner, Vantive US Healthcare LLC (“Vantive”); and most recently the parties collaborated on completing the enrolments for PrisMax sub-study in February 2025.
Dr. John Kellum, Chief Medical Officer of Spectral Medical, stated, “We are grateful for the strong interest in the clinical development of PMX among researchers and clinicians that has helped drive us towards completing full enrollment in the Tigris trial with a total of 157 patients. On behalf of Spectral Medical, I would like to express gratitude to the patients and their families in addition to the dedicated teams at the clinical sites, as well as our clinical and regulatory staff. We remain confident in the potential of PMX, and if ultimately approved, to play a major role in reducing the tragic rates of mortality caused by endotoxic septic shock.”
Corporate Highlights During & Subsequent to the First Quarter of 2025
Tigris
  • Total enrolled patients:
    • 157 total patients enrolled
      • 151 evaluable patients, 100 treated with PMX
  • Release of topline results:
    • Data lock to be completed in approximately 90 days
      • Expected release of topline results approximately 2 weeks post-data lock
  • PMA submission:
    • The Company’s Premarket Approval submission (“PMA”) is a modular approach, whereby non-clinical aspects are submitted separately from the clinical data
    • To-date the Company has submitted all non-clinical studies and reports to the US Food & Drug Administration (“FDA”) for evaluation
    • On track to submit the clinical results and reports by end of October 2025
  • EDEN Abstract Presentation:
    • On February 23, 2025, an abstract of the EDEN study was presented by Dr. Mark Tidswell at the 2025 Society of Critical Care Medicine Annual Congress (see abstract: Critical Care Medicine)
    • The Company completed its EDEN study in Q4 2023 with 92 patients enrolled. The ancillary observational study collected data on patients with sepsis even if ineligible for Tigris, and captured much needed data on the full range of septic shock and its relation to organ failure and endotoxin activity.
    • Based on the results of 84 evaluable patients, compared to other patients with septic shock, those with endotoxic septic shock (EAA ≥ 0.6 and SOFA >11) had significantly higher mortality (60% vs 14.1%, p < 0.001).
    • These data will inform subsequent discussions with the FDA on labelling for PMX, as well as to provide the medical community and the Company a better picture of the addressable population in the U.S. for PMX.
    • A manuscript describing the full results of the EDEN study has been submitted to a medical journal.
PMX Commercialization
  • On January 31, 2025, Baxter International Inc. (“Baxter”) completed the sale of its Kidney Care business, including Vantive and its affiliated entities throughout the world, to funds affiliated with The Carlyle Group, pursuant to which Spectral Medical’s PMX distribution agreement was assigned to Vantive.
  • Commercialization Activities:
    • In anticipation of a positive Tigris trial outcome, the Company has been working closely with Vantive on post-approval marketing plans for PMX commercialization.
    • In February 2025, the Vantive PrisMax sub-study was completed
      • Vantive intends to submit a 510(k) application and obtain clearance for its PrisMax System
      • The PrisMax System, with its leading installed base in ICUs throughout the U.S., is anticipated to be the primary ICU device utilized for PMX treatments on commercial launch
Balance Sheet and Financing Update
  • On May 6, 2025, Spectral entered into a senior secured promissory note (the “Agreement”) with Vantive, in the aggregate principal amount of up to US$10 million
  • Under the terms of the Agreement, Vantive may advance funds to Spectral in up to four separate tranches
  • First tranche of US$4 million payable to Spectral was triggered on May 6, 2025 upon the execution of the Agreement
  • The primary terms of the Promissory Note are:
    • 4-year maturity
    • Payment-in-Kind (“PIK”) interest at an annual rate of 9%
    • Principal balance and PIK interest to be repaid at maturity
    • The Promissory Note is not convertible into any securities of the Company
“Finalizing enrollment represents another key milestone for the Company and brings us a step closer on our regulatory path to potential approval of PMX. Spectral is now heavily focused on the regulatory phase for PMX, in addition to our continued commercialization activities with our distribution partner Vantive,” said Chris Seto, CEO of Spectral. “With enrollment now complete, we expect to be in a position to share topline results in the third quarter of this year. Additionally, the Company recently strengthened its balance sheet as we entered into a promissory note with Vantive. Not only is this a non-dilutive financing, but the promissory note provides a funding path to advance PMX through the regulatory phase and, if ultimately approved, into commercialization.”
Financial Review
Revenue for the three-months ended March 31, 2025 was $572,000 compared to $668,000 for the same three-month period last year, representing a decrease of $96,000, or 14%. Royalty revenue for the three-months ended March 31, 2025 was $142,000 an increase of $7,000 from $135,000 for the same period in the prior year. Product revenue decreased by $174,000 because of timing difference of billings.
Operating expenses for the three-months ended March 31, 2025, were $13,174,000, compared to $4,825,000 for the same period in the preceding year, an increase of $8,349,000, or 173%. The increase in operating expenses were primarily due to increase in fair value adjustment on derivative liabilities which is a non-cash item in March 31, 2025. The increase was primarily due to change in the market assumptions and market price considered for the calculation of the option feature. Also, there was an increase in the interest expense, consulting and professional fees and share-based compensation. Interest expense of $1,076,000 which relates to the three months ended March 31, 2025 in relation to the May 30, 2024 and July 19, 2024 convertible notes previously issued. The principal amount of convertible notes issued in 2024 was $9,880,000.
Clinical development and regulatory program costs (as disclosed in Note 12 of the consolidated financial statements) were $1,585,000 for the three-months ended March 31, 2025 compared to $964,000 for the same period in the prior year. A significant portion of clinical trial and regulatory costs consists of consulting and professional fees paid to contract research organizations, clinical sites, and other clinical and regulatory consultants. Increased clinical costs was due to the increase in volume of trial activities. Cumulative trial and regulatory program costs total as of March 31, 2025 was $56,415,000.
Loss for the three-months ended March 31, 2025 was $12,605,000 ($0.04 per share) compared to a loss of $4,160,000 ($0.01 per share) for the same period in the prior year. The increased loss of $8,445,000 was due to increased operating expenses, primarily due to increased fair value adjustment of derivative liability on March 31, 2025. Outside of the increase in the FV adjustment, operating expense were flat period over period.
The Company concluded the first quarter of 2025 with cash of $1,670,000 compared to $2,988,000 of cash on hand as of December 31, 2024.
The total number of common shares outstanding for the Company was 285,117,225 at March 31, 2025.
About Spectral
Spectral is a Phase 3 company seeking U.S. FDA approval for its unique product for the treatment of patients with septic shock, Toraymyxin™ (“PMX”). PMX is a therapeutic hemoperfusion device that removes endotoxin, which can cause sepsis, from the bloodstream and is guided by the Company’s FDA cleared Endotoxin Activity Assay (EAA™), the clinically available test for endotoxin in blood.
PMX is approved for therapeutic use in Japan and Europe and has been used safely and effectively over 360,000 times to date. In March 2009, Spectral obtained the exclusive development and commercial rights in the U.S. for PMX, and in November 2010, signed an exclusive distribution agreement for this product in Canada. In July 2022, the U.S. FDA granted Breakthrough Device Designation for PMX for the treatment of endotoxic septic shock. Approximately 330,000 patients are diagnosed with septic shock in North America each year.
The Tigris Trial is a confirmatory study of PMX in addition to standard care vs standard care alone and is designed as a 2:1 randomized trial of 150 patients using Bayesian statistics. Endotoxic septic shock is a malignant form of sepsis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RANrHHi9L8.
The trial methods are detailed in “Bayesian methods: a potential path forward for sepsis trials”.​
 

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Decent explanation of what spectral is doing medically

 

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Bought another 10k today on the way up. Sitting at 235,000 shares.
I like it....this call on the 15th, will you be on it?
I also got the new update, seems paradigm has been cut outa the company info loop....

Pretty interesting as they've always known exactly what is going on.
 

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