Economic Depression

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Triple digit silver kook
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Yes, because that has happened exactly zero times in history over a rolling 20 year period.

The consumer is finally beginning to show signs of weakness, but this is nowhere near a recession yet, let alone a depression. GDP growth is as low as it was back in 2000 (1.5 to 2.0%), but S&P earnings and P/E multiples are in MUCH better shape compared to right before the dislocation of 2001.

This isn't the same era as when your grandpa lost his retirement savings in the 20's. The economy is global now. Subprime losses are priced into the markets now at 20% realized losses, which works out to 60 cents on the dollar and is overly pessamistic and a kneejerk reaction to the fear of the markets.

Buying on fear is the best time to get in. Scared sheep get fleeced.

If people were to actually factor all costs of home ownership, there are plenty of areas and time periods where owning a home isnt nearly as great as its perceived.

People havent changed since the 1920s. Only a fool would think otherwise.

How about posting what you own and/or are buying instead of bs like you have above?

ttp, a rowboat or canoe sounds like a great investment. Maybe a 5 speed schwinn with cool reflectors, wide handle bars, and an attached shopping cage.
 

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70-80% of all financial transactions still take place in US Dollar currency. It may weaken further, and I think we will see 1.60 before we see 1.20 against the Euro, but this is no reason to go pulling your cash out of the savings account and stuffing it under your mattress.

Personally, I've kept essentially the same investment allocation I've had over the past 3 or 4 years - 40% domestic, 30% EAFE, 30% Emerging Markets (20% asia ex japan, 10% latin america). The reason we aren't in a recession right now is fully based on the strength of the global markets. Russia boomed, China is booming, and I think latam is next (mainly, Brazil).

But that's just me. I'm under 30, and have 30 more years until I'm going to be living off this money. I can afford to take some risks and go for larger returns. Also, I work for a large bank and therefore have many restricitons on single stock names and daytrading that I can't take part in.

I'm not anti-gold, and I'm sure it has a lot of room to run. I just think stacking the bullion in the corner of your bedroom is kinda crazy.
 

Breaking Bad Snob
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DAWOOF,

Where's the best place to have 401k money now?

I've got a good portion in gold, precious metals, and energy. I just bought 150 shares of FXY (Yen ETF) and the rest is in a money market fund.

Any recommendations would be greatly appreciated.
 

Breaking Bad Snob
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I forgot to add I have a huge chunk in QID, which is a Nasdaq bear market ETF.
 

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If you use the CPI calculation they used in 1980, we've been in recession since 2001.
sgs-gdp.gif

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=535558
 

Triple digit silver kook
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deac, keep your money in commodities for the next several years.

the commodity bull market still has a long way to go.

must also have some physical gold and silver.

this depression will wipe out alot of the buy and hold type equity investors and donald trump wannabe real estate gurus.

as much as others get uptight about those posting this type of scenario, thats how capitalism works.
 

"Lock and Load"
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Dec 19, 2005
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I have to admit that going into this election I would never even looked at a Republican. It was my firm belief that we needed a Democrat this time around. Ron Paul seems more of a Democrat then a Republican and honestly he is starting to pull my vote. I read "Screwed" The undeclared war against the middle class, which I thought hit the nail on the head. Ron Paul seems to have the same view on things.
 

Breaking Bad Snob
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deac, keep your money in commodities for the next several years.

the commodity bull market still has a long way to go.

must also have some physical gold and silver.

this depression will wipe out alot of the buy and hold type equity investors and donald trump wannabe real estate gurus.

as much as others get uptight about those posting this type of scenario, thats how capitalism works.

Thanks for the advice. I've been collecting Silver Eagles for some time now. The author of Crash-Proof recommends holding your physical metals in an offshore mint in the event the government is forced back onto the gold standard and makes it unlawful for citizens to possess gold because "it's in the best interest of the country" as they did once before.
 

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dead cat bounce today???

gl

hola
 

Dr. Is IN
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NOPE Arab Money flowing in sure does help a company on the ropes...loks like they just turn the spicket and POUR money into this company....I cannot figure out why, but they are keeping this ship afloat and they are people who can continue to float this ship for a very long time if they see fit...I am interested to see what Woof thinks about this topic??
 

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..

saudia arabia pumps 9 million barrels of desert blood every day; that's about 900 million dollars revenue every day....

throw a few billion here/there..??

wtf

gl

:WTF::ohno::money8:
 

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Yes, because that has happened exactly zero times in history over a rolling 20 year period.

The consumer is finally beginning to show signs of weakness, but this is nowhere near a recession yet, let alone a depression. GDP growth is as low as it was back in 2000 (1.5 to 2.0%), but S&P earnings and P/E multiples are in MUCH better shape compared to right before the dislocation of 2001.

This isn't the same era as when your grandpa lost his retirement savings in the 20's. The economy is global now. Subprime losses are priced into the markets now at 20% realized losses, which works out to 60 cents on the dollar and is overly pessamistic and a kneejerk reaction to the fear of the markets.

Buying on fear is the best time to get in. Scared sheep get fleeced.


Checked the P/E ratio lately?


Index........................... SPX OEX NDX DJIA DJTA

Price/Earnings Ratio.......: 18 21 41 48 19
Dividend Yield..............: 1.8% 1.7% 0.4% 2.3% 2.8%
 

Triple digit silver kook
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Tiznow, you've come a long way from not knowing how to imbed youtube videos a year or so ago to finding out where a photo originates.

Correct: the place is Punta del este, Uraguay and jdog owns one of the boats floating in the harbor.

Speaking of videos.....heres one that mocks the govt UE data.

<object width="560" height="340"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ulu3SCAmeBA&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ulu3SCAmeBA&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"></embed></object>
 

Triple digit silver kook
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<table width="420" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="32"> Evac-U8 Emergency Escape Smoke Hood
Survive and escape from a fire using this simple device

</td></tr><tr><td class="sideareacaptiongrenen" width="200" valign="top">
evacu8.jpg
</td></tr></tr></tbody></table>
Reading a book this week that lists this as an essential part of a survival kit. Loren78 type stuff here.

(<)<
 

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