[h=1]Early Week 1 NFL value bets[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The NFL schedule was released last Thursday and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was ready with its Week 1 lines.
A lot of people think it's way too early to be betting games in the fall, fearing the unknown of injuries and suspensions (and we haven't even had the draft yet), but that hasn't stopped early speculators from betting into these lines and the Westgate has been joined by CG Technology, the South Point and the William Hill books here in Nevada (and most major offshore books) in offering Week 1 lines.
While the obvious goal is to pick the winner of the games you're looking to bet, the main consideration is whether the line is expected to move by opening weekend and to be on the right side of that move (otherwise, it doesn't make sense to tie up your money for nearly five months). It's a great feeling to have a ticket in your possession when a line has moved several points (or across the key numbers of 3 or 7) and you can decide if you're going to let it ride because you have the best of it, or shoot for a middle.
So, let's look at the Week 1 lines and see where we can find value with best bets marked with an asterisk(*):
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (-1)
We get a Super Bowl rematch in the NFL opener on Thursday, Sept. 8. The Westgate opened this Denver -3 (EVEN) but with Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler gone, Mark Sanchez is the starting QB right now and offshore books opened this between -1 and -2.5. The early money has come in <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">on Carolina and the Westgate is now down to Denver -1. The play to make (and I missed it) was on the Panthers +3, and now I lean toward saying the value is on the defending champions (which won with defense and an offense which doesn't ask much of its QBs), but I'll pass for now as the line by the season opener will be under a field goal either way.</offer>
My play: Pass.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
The Falcons are my dark horse team to win the Super Bowl, so I'll definitely be cheering for them to get off to a strong start. However, this column is about line value and with this sitting over the key number of 3, the value is on the underdog as it's more likely to dip to 3 (and if we're wrong and the line climbs a little, we don't lose that much value).
My play: Buccaneers +3.5*
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Tennessee Titans
The Titans are making a lot of noise with the signing of RBDeMarco Murray and trading away the No. 1 pick to hopefully fill more holes in the draft, but the Vikings will still be the better team heading into the season and I expect this line to be bet higher.
My play: Vikings -3
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Both teams are starting over with new coaches. Oddsmakers have added the hook to make it hard for bettors to fade the lowly Browns. If I had to make a play now, I would lean toward Cleveland, but the South Point is already up to 8 so there's no rush to bet this one early.
My play: Pass.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at New York Jets
The Westgate opened this as pick-em, but the early money has pushed the Bengals to being favorites. I'll wait to see how the Ryan Fitzpatrick situation works out. If he's under center on opening day, I would love to have the Jets as a home underdog, but there's no incentive to grab +1 now.
My play: Pass.
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1)
The Westgate opened New Orleans -1.5 and all the early action has come in on the Raiders. I believe the time to bet the Raiders is now, as it's very like they're going to go off as the favorite. Derek Carr, Amari Cooper& Co. are seen as an up-and-coming team while the Saints' home mystique is pretty much a thing of the past (4-4 at home last season).
My play: Raiders +1*
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
A lot of people are down on the Chargers, but I don't see this much difference between the two teams and the line is more likely to dip to 7 than steam higher.
My play: Chargers +7.5*
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-3, EVEN)
The fact that Westgate made early bettors lay -120 to get the Bills +3 shows they expected the line to be more likely to move toward 2.5 as opposed to 3.5, and that's exactly what's happened as several offshore books (as well as William Hill in Nevada) are now at Baltimore -2.5. The South Point has the Bills +3 (-110) for those who still want the underdog at the best price, but I wouldn't be surprised if this line is still at 2.5/3 during opening week.
My play: Pass.
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-5.5)
The Westgate opened this line at Houston -4.5 and it's been bet up a full point to 5.5 mostly on the optimism of the Texans adding Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller, but it's not likely to go any higher. With the line around the relatively "dead number" of 5 (as few NFL games are decided by that margin), we can wait until September to play this game.
My play: Pass
Green Bay Packers (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
This opened Green Bay -3.5 and it wasn't a surprise -- since the Packers are the epitome of a public team -- that it's been bet up to 4 (and 4.5 at the South Point). I'll likely be on the Jaguars when Week 1 arrives, but I can be patient in case this steams even higher.
My play: Pass (but lean to Jaguars +4.5)
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-8)
Again, the Westgate oddsmakers knew where the early money would come from in this matchup and added the hook at Seattle -7.5. It's predictably been bet up to 8 at the Westgate and up to 8.5 at CG Technology and South Point. This line will probably hover in the neighborhood of 7.5 to 9.5 throughout the spring and summer.
My play: Pass.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4)
This opened Dallas -5.5 last Thursday night and by Friday morning it was gone -- probably never to return again. If you agree that the Giants are the right side, the time to bet is now at +4, as +3.5's are starting to show up offshore. It's not the ideal scenario to miss the best number, but again, if you're going to miss a number, 5 is the one to miss.
My play: Giants +4*
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
The Westgate opened this game at Indianapolis -5.5 and it was initially bet down to 5, but was pushed back to 5.5 this morning (Tuesday, April 19). This line is 4.5 at William Hill and South Point and even 4 at CG Technology, but I don't see this as value on the underdog. Again, this will probably hover around the dead number of 5 until opening week, barring major news.
My play: Pass.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (PK)
In many people's eyes, the Patriots-Cardinals Sunday nighter is the marquee matchup of Week 1. Oddsmakers have put it at pick-em and it hasn't budged, as most bettors are waiting to see if Tom Brady's suspension is reinstated. Basically, if you believe Brady will be available, the play now would be on New England as the Patriots would likely go off as the favorite; if you believe the NFL will win its appeal and suspend Brady, the play would be on Arizona.
My play: Pass.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Washington Redskins
The Steelers opened -2.5 and I regard that as the biggest "one that got away", as I'd love to be holding a ticket on the Steelers laying under a field goal as it looks a prime middle opportunity (the line is already up to 3.5 at the South Point). I still think this line is going higher and that there's value on laying the field goal and possibly trying to side the game later (that means betting Washington later when getting more points and hoping the Steelers win by 3 so we win one bet and push another). If you're just looking to play the Redskins (and they were 6-2 SU/ 5-3 ATS at home last year), I would wait for the line to peak.
My play: Steelers -3*
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Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Yes, I started to type "St. Lou ..." but the Rams are back in L.A. This line is lower at other books (-1 at CG Technology and -2 offshore), so I'm looking to shop elsewhere as I don't see this line swinging to the 49ers being favored, even though the Rams will likely be starting a rookie QB in Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. After all, the 49ers could be going with Blaine Gabbert.
My play: Rams -2.5 (available lower)
Best bets: Buccaneers +3.5, Raiders +1, Chargers +7.5, Giants +4, Steelers -3
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The NFL schedule was released last Thursday and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was ready with its Week 1 lines.
A lot of people think it's way too early to be betting games in the fall, fearing the unknown of injuries and suspensions (and we haven't even had the draft yet), but that hasn't stopped early speculators from betting into these lines and the Westgate has been joined by CG Technology, the South Point and the William Hill books here in Nevada (and most major offshore books) in offering Week 1 lines.
While the obvious goal is to pick the winner of the games you're looking to bet, the main consideration is whether the line is expected to move by opening weekend and to be on the right side of that move (otherwise, it doesn't make sense to tie up your money for nearly five months). It's a great feeling to have a ticket in your possession when a line has moved several points (or across the key numbers of 3 or 7) and you can decide if you're going to let it ride because you have the best of it, or shoot for a middle.
So, let's look at the Week 1 lines and see where we can find value with best bets marked with an asterisk(*):
We get a Super Bowl rematch in the NFL opener on Thursday, Sept. 8. The Westgate opened this Denver -3 (EVEN) but with Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler gone, Mark Sanchez is the starting QB right now and offshore books opened this between -1 and -2.5. The early money has come in <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">on Carolina and the Westgate is now down to Denver -1. The play to make (and I missed it) was on the Panthers +3, and now I lean toward saying the value is on the defending champions (which won with defense and an offense which doesn't ask much of its QBs), but I'll pass for now as the line by the season opener will be under a field goal either way.</offer>
My play: Pass.
The Falcons are my dark horse team to win the Super Bowl, so I'll definitely be cheering for them to get off to a strong start. However, this column is about line value and with this sitting over the key number of 3, the value is on the underdog as it's more likely to dip to 3 (and if we're wrong and the line climbs a little, we don't lose that much value).
My play: Buccaneers +3.5*
The Titans are making a lot of noise with the signing of RBDeMarco Murray and trading away the No. 1 pick to hopefully fill more holes in the draft, but the Vikings will still be the better team heading into the season and I expect this line to be bet higher.
My play: Vikings -3
Both teams are starting over with new coaches. Oddsmakers have added the hook to make it hard for bettors to fade the lowly Browns. If I had to make a play now, I would lean toward Cleveland, but the South Point is already up to 8 so there's no rush to bet this one early.
My play: Pass.
The Westgate opened this as pick-em, but the early money has pushed the Bengals to being favorites. I'll wait to see how the Ryan Fitzpatrick situation works out. If he's under center on opening day, I would love to have the Jets as a home underdog, but there's no incentive to grab +1 now.
My play: Pass.
The Westgate opened New Orleans -1.5 and all the early action has come in on the Raiders. I believe the time to bet the Raiders is now, as it's very like they're going to go off as the favorite. Derek Carr, Amari Cooper& Co. are seen as an up-and-coming team while the Saints' home mystique is pretty much a thing of the past (4-4 at home last season).
My play: Raiders +1*
A lot of people are down on the Chargers, but I don't see this much difference between the two teams and the line is more likely to dip to 7 than steam higher.
My play: Chargers +7.5*
The fact that Westgate made early bettors lay -120 to get the Bills +3 shows they expected the line to be more likely to move toward 2.5 as opposed to 3.5, and that's exactly what's happened as several offshore books (as well as William Hill in Nevada) are now at Baltimore -2.5. The South Point has the Bills +3 (-110) for those who still want the underdog at the best price, but I wouldn't be surprised if this line is still at 2.5/3 during opening week.
My play: Pass.
The Westgate opened this line at Houston -4.5 and it's been bet up a full point to 5.5 mostly on the optimism of the Texans adding Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller, but it's not likely to go any higher. With the line around the relatively "dead number" of 5 (as few NFL games are decided by that margin), we can wait until September to play this game.
My play: Pass
This opened Green Bay -3.5 and it wasn't a surprise -- since the Packers are the epitome of a public team -- that it's been bet up to 4 (and 4.5 at the South Point). I'll likely be on the Jaguars when Week 1 arrives, but I can be patient in case this steams even higher.
My play: Pass (but lean to Jaguars +4.5)
Again, the Westgate oddsmakers knew where the early money would come from in this matchup and added the hook at Seattle -7.5. It's predictably been bet up to 8 at the Westgate and up to 8.5 at CG Technology and South Point. This line will probably hover in the neighborhood of 7.5 to 9.5 throughout the spring and summer.
My play: Pass.
This opened Dallas -5.5 last Thursday night and by Friday morning it was gone -- probably never to return again. If you agree that the Giants are the right side, the time to bet is now at +4, as +3.5's are starting to show up offshore. It's not the ideal scenario to miss the best number, but again, if you're going to miss a number, 5 is the one to miss.
My play: Giants +4*
The Westgate opened this game at Indianapolis -5.5 and it was initially bet down to 5, but was pushed back to 5.5 this morning (Tuesday, April 19). This line is 4.5 at William Hill and South Point and even 4 at CG Technology, but I don't see this as value on the underdog. Again, this will probably hover around the dead number of 5 until opening week, barring major news.
My play: Pass.
In many people's eyes, the Patriots-Cardinals Sunday nighter is the marquee matchup of Week 1. Oddsmakers have put it at pick-em and it hasn't budged, as most bettors are waiting to see if Tom Brady's suspension is reinstated. Basically, if you believe Brady will be available, the play now would be on New England as the Patriots would likely go off as the favorite; if you believe the NFL will win its appeal and suspend Brady, the play would be on Arizona.
My play: Pass.
The Steelers opened -2.5 and I regard that as the biggest "one that got away", as I'd love to be holding a ticket on the Steelers laying under a field goal as it looks a prime middle opportunity (the line is already up to 3.5 at the South Point). I still think this line is going higher and that there's value on laying the field goal and possibly trying to side the game later (that means betting Washington later when getting more points and hoping the Steelers win by 3 so we win one bet and push another). If you're just looking to play the Redskins (and they were 6-2 SU/ 5-3 ATS at home last year), I would wait for the line to peak.
My play: Steelers -3*
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Yes, I started to type "St. Lou ..." but the Rams are back in L.A. This line is lower at other books (-1 at CG Technology and -2 offshore), so I'm looking to shop elsewhere as I don't see this line swinging to the 49ers being favored, even though the Rams will likely be starting a rookie QB in Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. After all, the 49ers could be going with Blaine Gabbert.
My play: Rams -2.5 (available lower)
Best bets: Buccaneers +3.5, Raiders +1, Chargers +7.5, Giants +4, Steelers -3
