Early use of bowl strategy on season ending games

[gamblingshark1]

The strategy of taking the team with the better run defense(RD) and also run offense(RD) in bowl matchups has been very successful the past few years of tracking..trying this right before the bowl games to see what happens,, I am late with the washington winner but there is 8 matchups tomorrow that qualify

colorado 44rth RO 34rth RD
washington 39th RO 25th RD,,,, washingon -8.5 winner

kansas st 41 RO 3rd RD,,,,,,,, kansas st +3.5
TCU 57 RO 50 RD

ok st 95 RO 69 RD
oklahoma 34 RO 39 RD,,,,,,,, oklahoma -12 (+105)

ark st 110 RO 41 RD,,,,,,,,,,,, ark st -23.5
tex st 128 RO 96 RD

georgia st 127 RO 86 RD
idaho 112 RO 33 RD,,,,,,,,,,,, idaho -7 (+110)

L tech 74 RO 24 RD
west kent 64 RO 8 RD ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,west kent -10.5 (even)

san diego st 7 RO 14 RD ,,,,,,,,,,,,,san diego st -7 (+110)
wyoming 29 RO 89 RD

penn st 60 RO 44 RD
wisconsin 43 RO 3 RD,,,,,,,,,,,,, wisconsin -3 (-105)

florida 111 RO 20 RD
alabama 14 RO 1 RD,,,,,,,,,,,,,, alabama -24

 

[pizzap]

thanks for the info!

 

[indiana]

Shark/1..........appreciate the info and write up...........good luck with your action........indy

 

[pizza]

thanks for the tip
good luck this weekend

 

[TimmyRules]

Thanks GShark-already on three of them and adding the others. Can't figure out if Bama cares to blow out Florida though.

 

[Dannyddoubled07]

Thanks for posting this, much appreciated, followed this the last two bowls seasons.

 

[Ayubm1983]

I remember this worked well last year. Do you have the cover rate? Was it 60%+?

 

[Serbone]

Excellent info! I like when a poster contributes solid information rather than just posting a game (eg "State U - 3").

I always look at the running games as a huge factor both NCAA and NFL (Hog Ratings).

But 7 of 8 of your examples are favorites; need to be careful.

Best bet is a dog getting 6-7 points or so that has a much better offensive running game even if the defenses are about the same.

We shall see.

 

[rolltide]

no need to do this shit manually. here is history and query for championship games....

I'm assuming you are using average yards per game rushing and defending the rush so this would be your setup although dbase not agreeing with wky as having better numbers on both btw....

tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and otA(o:rushing yards) > tA(o:rushing yards) and game type = CH and division = 1A
SU: 24-12-0 (7.42, 66.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 19-17-0 (0.86, 52.8%) avg line: -6.6 +6: 25-11-0 (69.4%) -6: 14-22-0 (38.9%) +10: 29-7-0 (80.6%) -10: 12-24-0 (33.3%) O/U: 14-21-1 (-6.61, 40.0%) avg total: 57.9 +6: 2-31-3 (6.1%) -6: 21-15-0 (58.3%) +10: 1-35-0 (2.8%) -10: 22-13-1 (62.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 42.1 184.7 32.7 18.9 224.9 1.9 6.5 9.0 6.9 6.5 29.4 Opp 34.0 113.1 34.7 19.2 229.2 1.9 3.8 6.7 6.4 5.6 21.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Dec 03, 2016 Saturday 14 2016 ALA FLA neutral -24.0 40.5 0 Dec 03, 2016 Saturday 14 2016 WIS PNST neutral -3.0 46.5 0 Dec 03, 2016 Saturday 14 2016 SDST WYO away -6.0 58.5 0 Dec 02, 2016 box Friday 14 2016 WAS COLO neutral 7-7 7-0 17-3 10-0 41-10 -8.5 55.5 31 22.5 -4.5 9.0 -13.5 W W U 0

 

[rolltide]

and here is regular season games with better offensive and defensive rush team. 50/50 basically, 170-175-13 ATS

13	6-7-0 (-1.92, 46.2%)	-9.9	4-9-0 (-6.42, 30.8%)	57.0	10-3-0 (8.00, 76.9%)	game number = 13
357	174-169-13 (0.35, 50.7%)	-9.8	169-180-7 (0.46, 48.4%)	54.9	253-104-0 (10.27, 70.9%)	game number = 12

 

[rolltide]

and this is bowl games and playoff games. great last two years, 50/50 otherwise

tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and otA(o:rushing yards) > tA(o:rushing yards) and (game type = BG or game type = PO) and division = 1A and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
20	15-5-0 (10.38, 75.0%)	-1.5	13-7-0 (6.92, 65.0%)	58.4	16-4-0 (11.90, 80.0%)	season = 2015
21	15-6-0 (10.93, 71.4%)	-2.6	10-10-1 (-0.12, 50.0%)	60.3	15-6-0 (13.57, 71.4%)	season = 2014
14	5-9-0 (-4.18, 35.7%)	-1.8	5-9-0 (-3.50, 35.7%)	61.3	5-9-0 (-2.36, 35.7%)	season = 2013
15	9-6-0 (3.60, 60.0%)	-3.1	9-5-1 (0.27, 64.3%)	57.3	10-5-0 (6.67, 66.7%)	season = 2012
17	10-7-0 (0.79, 58.8%)	-3.0	8-9-0 (-3.85, 47.1%)	55.7	10-7-0 (3.82, 58.8%)	season = 2011
17	9-8-0 (1.21, 52.9%)	-1.3	7-10-0 (-6.71, 41.2%)	55.9	10-7-0 (2.47, 58.8%)	season = 2010
20	9-10-1 (-1.77, 47.4%)	-0.2	11-9-0 (-1.00, 55.0%)	55.8	9-11-0 (-1.60, 45.0%)	season = 2009
18	10-8-0 (5.36, 55.6%)	-3.5	7-11-0 (-1.42, 38.9%)	54.9	14-4-0 (8.83, 77.8%)	season = 2008
14	7-7-0 (4.35, 50.0%)	-4.2	6-7-1 (-0.29, 46.2%)	59.2	7-7-0 (8.50, 50.0%)	season = 2007
16	8-8-0 (1.75, 50.0%)	-1.9	6-10-0 (0.78, 37.5%)	50.6	9-7-0 (3.62, 56.2%)	season = 2006

Showing 1 to 10 of 10 entries

 

[rolltide]

now, with the bowl/po games, toss out the big underdogs and the teams that have 3 or more wins than opponent and you have just 1 losing season since dbase tracked....

tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and otA(o:rushing yards) > tA(o:rushing yards) and (game type = BG or game type = PO) and line < 7.5 and division = 1A and wins - o:wins < 3 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
19	14-5-0 (9.21, 73.7%)	-1.5	13-6-0 (7.68, 68.4%)	58.5	15-4-0 (10.68, 78.9%)	season = 2015
21	15-6-0 (10.93, 71.4%)	-2.6	10-10-1 (-0.12, 50.0%)	60.3	15-6-0 (13.57, 71.4%)	season = 2014
11	5-6-0 (-0.09, 45.5%)	-0.6	4-7-0 (-3.77, 36.4%)	61.6	5-6-0 (0.55, 45.5%)	season = 2013
9	6-3-0 (4.39, 66.7%)	-6.6	5-3-1 (-3.00, 62.5%)	60.0	6-3-0 (11.00, 66.7%)	season = 2012
14	8-6-0 (-0.64, 57.1%)	-3.4	6-8-0 (-4.71, 42.9%)	54.8	8-6-0 (2.79, 57.1%)	season = 2011
13	7-6-0 (2.12, 53.8%)	-1.9	6-7-0 (-3.27, 46.2%)	55.6	8-5-0 (4.00, 61.5%)	season = 2010
17	9-7-1 (-0.82, 56.2%)	-0.8	9-8-0 (-1.97, 52.9%)	56.0	9-8-0 (-0.06, 52.9%)	season = 2009
17	10-7-0 (6.06, 58.8%)	-3.4	7-10-0 (-0.85, 41.2%)	55.7	14-3-0 (9.47, 82.4%)	season = 2008
10	7-3-0 (8.99, 70.0%)	-4.4	4-5-1 (1.50, 44.4%)	60.7	6-4-0 (13.40, 60.0%)	season = 2007
9	5-4-0 (1.11, 55.6%)	-3.3	3-6-0 (-3.00, 33.3%)	48.1	5-4-0 (4.44, 55.6%)	season = 2006

Showing 1 to 10 of 10 entries

 

[Dannyddoubled07]

gamblingshark, any chance you could post all of the games even those that don't fit both run o and d? If i remember correctly the better run d alone had a pretty good percentage as well. Thanks!

 

[Serbone]

4-0 so far Wash, K St, Ok, W KY all nice winners!

 

[In2Sports]

Rolltide will post these plays for bowl season please

ames	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
19	14-5-0 (9.21, 73.7%)	-1.5	13-6-0 (7.68, 68.4%)	58.5	15-4-0 (10.68, 78.9%)	season = 2015
21	15-6-0 (10.93, 71.4%)	-2.6	10-10-1 (-0.12, 50.0%)	60.3	15-6-0 (13.57, 71.4%)	season = 2014
11	5-6-0 (-0.09, 45.5%)	-0.6	4-7-0 (-3.77, 36.4%)	61.6	5-6-0 (0.55, 45.5%)	season = 2013
9	6-3-0 (4.39, 66.7%)	-6.6	5-3-1 (-3.00, 62.5%)	60.0	6-3-0 (11.00, 66.7%)	season = 2012
14	8-6-0 (-0.64, 57.1%)	-3.4	6-8-0 (-4.71, 42.9%)	54.8	8-6-0 (2.79, 57.1%)	season = 2011
13	7-6-0 (2.12, 53.8%)	-1.9	6-7-0 (-3.27, 46.2%)	55.6	8-5-0 (4.00, 61.5%)	season = 2010
17	9-7-1 (-0.82, 56.2%)	-0.8	9-8-0 (-1.97, 52.9%)	56.0	9-8-0 (-0.06, 52.9%)	season = 2009
17	10-7-0 (6.06, 58.8%)	-3.4	7-10-0 (-0.85, 41.2%)	55.7	14-3-0 (9.47, 82.4%)	season = 2008
10	7-3-0 (8.99, 70.0%)	-4.4	4-5-1 (1.50, 44.4%)	60.7	6-4-0 (13.40, 60.0%)	season = 2007
9	5-4-0 (1.11, 55.6%)	-3.3	3-6-0 (-3.00, 33.3%)	48.1	5-4-0 (4.44, 55.6%)	season = 2006

Showing 1 to 10 of 10 entries

 

[bank--it]

Cant wait to see this year's bowl games!

 

[gamblingshark1]

Thanks for all the responses,,,good luck to everyone this bowl season,,,any and all info pertinent to this strategy is appreciated

Doing this system on 12/3 ended up being 6-3,,,,,,,,,,1-0 for the only dog,,and 5-3 for the favs

Last year bowls went like this:

better run D only : 10-11-2

better run D and O: 13-5

better run D and O for dogs : 6-3

better run D and O for favs : 7-2

 

[GTROCKMAN]

Do u or anyone else have this info for the upcoming bowl games or which ones qualify ? Thanks so much !! :toast:

 

[Serbone]

Thanks for all the responses,,,good luck to everyone this bowl season,,,any and all info pertinent to this strategy is appreciated

Doing this system on 12/3 ended up being 6-3,,,,,,,,,,1-0 for the only dog,,and 5-3 for the favs

Last year bowls went like this:

better run D only : 10-11-2

better run D and O: 13-5

better run D and O for dogs : 6-3

better run D and O for favs : 7-2

Excellent info!!!

 

[cruisin]

Any plays for today