Early play Dallas/GB

[49erwildCat]

Green Bay +6

Dallas /GB will be a close first half and a fairly close game throughout.
When they played earlier in the year , there was little pressure on the cowboys to win in Lambeau.
Because of this , they caused some turn overs and capitalized with some points.
This is not the case now.
Dallas is the heavy favorite and with out jordy Nelson the line has ballooned to 6.
GB fans , you have the best QB in the league and will yet again see it from Rodgers today .

Green Bay 23
dallas 19

 

[woodypaige]

Bryant didn't play first game and Dallas won. GB secondary banged up. Won't be any different than first game, except for GB maybe scoring in the 20"s

But with that being said Dallas could win by 3, good luck

 

[AlistairCookie]

Bryant didn't play first game and Dallas won. GB secondary banged up. Won't be any different than first game, except for GB maybe scoring in the 20"s

But with that being said Dallas could win by 3, good luck

Do you think that using that game is a good comparison? Green Bay turned the ball over had six fumbles and an interception for 4 turnovers in that game and a more recent comparison would see Dallas putting up 7 on a team that GB just scored 38 on.

If Dallas commits to the run, they will win a close one, just don't think that they will.

 

[OverThinker]

Do you think that using that game is a good comparison? Green Bay turned the ball over had six fumbles and an interception for 4 turnovers in that game and a more recent comparison would see Dallas putting up 7 on a team that GB just scored 38 on.

If Dallas commits to the run, they will win a close one, just don't think that they will.

the part of that 1st meeting that applicable to compare is Dallas rushing for damn near 200 yards, while packers may be playing better now than they were at that time the run defense hasn't improved so no reason to think Dallas doesn't punish them on the ground again. Gmen getting whipped by pack doesn't mean shit, 1st off divisional rivals typically play tighter games even when one superior, 2nd and more important the fact nyg defense matches up much better against Dallas o than packs has no relevance on this game. In fact it just points to how important matchups are and packers don't match up favorably with Dallas at all. Why does pack being a bad matchup for nyg matter against Dallas? There a bunch of reasons why pack match up better With nyg and not so much against boys..

 

[Desbo3]

Agree with both your points. I think their will be a point where you will have the two teams matching score for score. Over 52 seems like the right play here also.

GL 49er

 

[Desbo3]

the part of that 1st meeting that applicable to compare is Dallas rushing for damn near 200 yards, while packers may be playing better now than they were at that time the run defense hasn't improved so no reason to think Dallas doesn't punish them on the ground again. Gmen getting whipped by pack doesn't mean shit, 1st off divisional rivals typically play tighter games even when one superior, 2nd and more important the fact nyg defense matches up much better against Dallas o than packs has no relevance on this game. In fact it just points to how important matchups are and packers don't match up favorably with Dallas at all. Why does pack being a bad matchup for nyg matter against Dallas? There a bunch of reasons why pack match up better With nyg and not so much against boys..

If i recall correctly GB was ranked top 5 in run defense going into that game. Primary reason, the offense would score points and the other team would have to abandon the run early. Well... The offense sputtered and DAL got up early and were able to run their game plan... feed Elliot the ball. GB has also been horrible against a running QB for a long time now. If GB gets up early and Dak has to throw... He's also going to run and it won't be good.

The only questions I had to ask before taking GB was:

Can GB keep Elliot to under a 100 yards?
Answer: No
Can we win the turnover battle?
Answer yes

Let Elliot get his, but just win the turnover battle and this game will be tight to the end..

 

[OverThinker]

Agree with both your points. I think their will be a point where you will have the two teams matching score for score. Over 52 seems like the right play here also.

GL 49er

Last night I dedicated couple hours trying to make a case for the under and honestly I couldn't do it. My best attempts to do so were incredibly shakey at best and still ended with a score above or incredibly close to the number. I'd say over is definitely the Right side of the total, as in it probably hits far more often than -110 suggest!

 

[OverThinker]

If i recall correctly GB was ranked top 5 in run defense going into that game. Primary reason, the offense would score points and the other team would have to abandon the run early. Well... The offense sputtered and DAL got up early and were able to run their game plan... feed Elliot the ball. GB has also been horrible against a running QB for a long time now. If GB gets up early and Dak has to throw... He's also going to run and it won't be good.

The only questions I had to ask before taking GB was:

Can GB keep Elliot to under a 100 yards?
Answer: No
Can we win the turnover battle?
Answer yes

Let Elliot get his, but just win the turnover battle and this game will be tight to the end..

yea I remember laughing so hard when being fed packers rushing defense ranks before that game, think we all know at this point packs run defense is only as good as their competition is poor at rushing the ball. They no match for this Dallas rushing attack. I don't really expect boys to turn the ball over more than once and think it be gb offense who cracks under pressure of limited possessions while trying to operate without a guy who has accounted for 30 something % of Rodgers production during their streak.

 

[49erwildCat]

The over is intriguing . Absolutely. But I just see mistakes inside the red zones that may keep this one under.

But im not touching it

 

[OverThinker]

The over is intriguing . Absolutely. But I just see mistakes inside the red zones that may keep this one under.

But im not touching it

Yea I hear ya, that why I spent so much time trying to make a case for the under. I can also see a scenario where Dallas puts together several 8+ min drives really shortening the game to point they would both have to score on well over half their possessions to push it over. Not sold pack without jordy will be so efficient. Still every favorable under scenario I ran thru and assigned a point total to it was incredibly close even best case. Ultimately I think it over or nothing but at moment it a pass for me.

 

[AlistairCookie]

I don't disagree with anyone's take that Dallas can dominate the run game. If Dalls runs the ball 30+ times, they will most likely win. I just don't think that they will.

As dominant as their run has been this year, they passed the ball more times than they passed 6 out 15 games that counted. In those 6 games, they averaged 4.92/ypc not including when Prescott ran the ball. Over the course of the year, Dak attepted 459 passes, while they ran the 442 times (if you take out Prescott's rush attempts - how many of those were designed, I don't know).

Gashed SF for 198 yards and still threw the ball 32 times.
They rushed Elliot just 20 times against one of worst rush D in the league on Thanksgiving, even though he was getting just shy of 5 a pop and team ran for over 5ypc.
They averaged over 6 yards a carry vs. GB and still threw the ball 27 times.
187 yards vs. the Iggles and threw it 39 times.
6 yards a carry vs. the Bucs and threw it 36 times.
37 passes vs. the Giants even though Elliot had over 100 yards.

This has become the story in the NFL and College. Teams are enamored with the pass. Heck, Alabama woud've beaten Clemson if they handed the ball off every down. Green Bay is going to stack the box early and Dallas is going to abandon the run. Who are you going to back - Prescott in his first playoff game ever, or Aaron Rodgers in a dome?

 

[ReBornNJ]

Dak was dealing with pressure just as great all season by playing for his job week and week out. Nothing but qb controversy all season. Dak will be fine

 

[OverThinker]

You guys make some valid points and god knows I'm wrong plenty but to me it not Rodgers vs dak in the ultimate team game it a Dallas team that superior almost across the board vs Rodgers without his 1 wr who has accounted for roughly 34% of his productin during this win streak. You can have Rodgers I'll take the rookie surrounded by the much better team.

 

[AlistairCookie]

Nelson had 1 catch last week.

 

[OverThinker]

Nelson had 1 catch last week.

Ok but he was on field which allows the other guys space. Now once again pack will have to ask guys incapable of being a 1 to fill that time which weakens the entire unit:

 

[woodypaige]

Rogers got hit and knocked down many times in that first game, hence (Turnovers) It will be no different this time around either.
Besides, no Nelson and a banged up Randell makes that passing game not as exceptional.

 

[TheZone]

I don't disagree with anyone's take that Dallas can dominate the run game. If Dalls runs the ball 30+ times, they will most likely win. I just don't think that they will.

As dominant as their run has been this year, they passed the ball more times than they passed 6 out 15 games that counted. In those 6 games, they averaged 4.92/ypc not including when Prescott ran the ball. Over the course of the year, Dak attepted 459 passes, while they ran the 442 times (if you take out Prescott's rush attempts - how many of those were designed, I don't know).

Gashed SF for 198 yards and still threw the ball 32 times.
They rushed Elliot just 20 times against one of worst rush D in the league on Thanksgiving, even though he was getting just shy of 5 a pop and team ran for over 5ypc.
They averaged over 6 yards a carry vs. GB and still threw the ball 27 times.
187 yards vs. the Iggles and threw it 39 times.
6 yards a carry vs. the Bucs and threw it 36 times.
37 passes vs. the Giants even though Elliot had over 100 yards.

This has become the story in the NFL and College. Teams are enamored with the pass. Heck, Alabama woud've beaten Clemson if they handed the ball off every down. Green Bay is going to stack the box early and Dallas is going to abandon the run. Who are you going to back - Prescott in his first playoff game ever, or Aaron Rodgers in a dome?

The problem with your game stats is that you dont take into account that:
1. In the 49ers game Dallas got behind 14-0 early and needed to throw themselves back into that game.
2. If you recall that thanksgiving game was a scorefest, and neither team was playing much defense--boys had several starters out in their secondary--church, claiborne, scandrick went down early.
3. Dunno which eagle game you are referring to, but assuming it was the 1st eagle game(because the last one didn't mean shet and starters sat most of the game.) it was another early season game that Dallas got behind early.
4. Green bay game---27 passes? You are going to state your case on 27 passes? Why don't you compare other qbs that player against the pack and see how many times they had to throw the ball, I can almost guarantee that 27 passes is one of the lowest totals.
5. Did you even watch the giants game? It was a tight game throughout and although elliot ran for over 100 yards, most of those yards came on 3 long runs. Giants were stacking the box and forcing Dak to audible out of running plays and try to pass in adverse weather conditions...

If the Pack trys to stack the box against Dallas it will be a long day for the Pack. Green bay just doesn't have a secondary or pass rush like the Giants, and Dak has a better overall QBR than Rodgers....

Drop mic, walk off stage!!!

 

[jasonc69]

Ok but he was on field which allows the other guys space. Now once again pack will have to ask guys incapable of being a 1 to fill that time which weakens the entire unit:

Green Bay scored all of its points after Jordy was out. Not saying he won't be missed but Rodgers is capable of making someone a star quick.

 

[AlistairCookie]

Lmao at another Cowboys backer suggesting that Dak is a better QB that Rogers. That's rich. Dallas could win the next 5 superbowls and Dak will never be as good as Aaron Rodgers.

But wait, you're justifying Dallas's offensive tactics because they fell behind early to two terrible teams? First of all, against Philly what you say happened didn't actually happen. They called 17 pass plays and 11 running plays in the 1st half when Dallas was either winning or tied until an end-of-the-quarter FG by the Eagles. Then according to you, they "had to pass" because they were down 14-0 in the early in the 2nd quarter to a San Fran team that won TWO games?

As for my point about GB, well, no I'm not going to state my case on 27 pass plays - it's simply part of the larger picture I'm trying to paint. This ain't a redneck bloodline, it's pretty easy to follow.

Your counter points are actually exactly my point. Dallas panics and abandons the running game (but so does just about every team these days). Dallas was the 2nd best rushing team in the league and still threw the ball more than they ran it. Maybe Dallas will stick to their running game, and if that happens then I don't think Green Bay has a chance. I'm not sure why some of you Dallas backers are so emotional about simply picking a side, but it's all business to me. I have no rooting interest in a single NFL team.

 

[OverThinker]

Green Bay scored all of its points after Jordy was out. Not saying he won't be missed but Rodgers is capable of making someone a star quick.

His numbers w/wo jordy tell a different story. Far as last week it meant very little to me as I said before that game that nyg was the biggest frauds in the playoffs and pack were gonna smoke them. They let Rodgers dance around in the pocket for 6-7-8 seconds any WRs can get open in that amount of time and was why I never got the nyg hype as they were far below avg rushing the passer, doesn't matter how good your secondary is if you let Rodgers have all day. Then the other glaring weakness with nyg, their offense is pitiful and allowed packers chance after chance till they finally got going, if you recall gb only had 7 going into half and looked out of sorts offensively until those scrubs inexcusably gave up a Hail Mary to little midget Cobb. The amount of possessions it took pack to get going last week won't be a luxury they have here as Dallas offense will choke the life out of this game and before Rodgers knows it halftime will be approaching. Then after half that small gb d will starts feeling the effects of the dal oline mauling them and that when this game is over.