EARLY PLAY!! Any thoughts?

[s4shadow]

Maybe I'm being simple minded here..but please give me some FEEDBACK here LOL.


Tomorrow's early game is UL MONROE @ UT ARLINGTON w/ UT ARLINGTON being a 5 point favorite. I like the DOG +5 for these dumb reasons:


During their 2nd game of the season they both played and "beat" the Samford Bulldogs w/ the following results:


SAM 52
ULM 86


SAM 75
UTA 88


*When ULM played Samford...Samford shot 1 of 15 from 3 point land and 7-12 from the free throw line....
*When UTA played Samford....Samford shot 10 of 23 from 3 point land 19-27 from the free throw line.....
*Turnovers were "about" even..


So the team that allowed only 52 points is a FIVE POINT DOG...and the team that allowed 75 points is the favorite...(and they both "scored" about the same amount of points with about the "same" FG percentage)


I know this was only the 2nd game of the season..I also know UTA is ranked 10 points higher in PPG but it looks like they've had a tougher schedule..Anyway..Does anyone EVER do this when capping a game? I realize this is NOT traditional handicapping but I believe basketball is the only sport where it "sometimes" makes a "little bit" of sense (there are less factors to consider compared to other sports)..So with that said:


I will play ***UL MONROE +5***

 

[s4shadow]

i know the rosters looked the same for both teams with those 2 games..I haven't looked into injuries/suspensions for tomorrow..which I'm doing now..Box scores hurt my head!!!

 

[s4shadow]

down to 3.5...which is a good sign. i know a lot of people think this is child's play and maybe I'm talking to myself here.. but when the amount of points allowed is BIG and the common opponent actually had a chance to "improve" their offense and it gets worse the next game, I think there is some value. I used to use this system years ago when the I could find 2 or more common opponents with significant margins of victory...(obviously the deeper into the season we get, the more we find) I know the sample size is small (1..lol)..but I'm putting a little more on UL Monrole @ +145 (maybe even tease it with something else) At the risk of looking like a fool, Good Luck guys

 

[JustinCruise]

TX Arlington will win this by 7+ points. The matchups are in their favor.

Common opponent logic is useless.

 

[jinxprjino13]

arlington's leading scorer is out

 

[dynasty]

UTA- starting point only starter to start all 14 games is out....

AND He's is their leading scorer at 22ppg.

Does that affect this game?

 

[NoSprint]

Of course it does.

 

[dynasty]

haha how much... UTA ML is my play, still think they are that much better

 

[s4shadow]

Even with Reger Dowell sidelined for TX Arlington? You might be right man..I'm sure the line is already adjusted for that anyway...but Good luck! You're a good handicapper on this site and I always appreciate feedback from you guys. I'm gonna role with UL Monroe..One of us will get it! lol

 

[s4shadow]

UTA- starting point only starter to start all 14 games is out....

AND He's is their leading scorer at 22ppg.

Does that affect this game?

Ya it's their first game without him..and he might be an NBA prospect

 

[dynasty]

GL... I am actually thinking about middling it... maybe by the 2 the other way and see what happens. Just lucky to have an early game to look at instead of working.

 

[palehose1]

Teams in all sports usualy do well right after a key player is out as the rest gets focused and step up, its down he road a bit that it starts to show affects Take UTA IMO

 

[s4shadow]

Teams in all sports usualy do well right after a key player is out as the rest gets focused and step up, its down he road a bit that it starts to show affects Take UTA IMO

Very true..I love doing it BIG national TV games (especially NBA)..(Just like I always play my Spurs when coach Pop rests all the starters I grabbed it at +5 last night so I'm gonna role with it. GL Man.

 

[Diesel00]

I took 1st half Monroe plus 2

 

[s4shadow]

I'm assuming there is no video, but is there a live radio stream anywhere?

 

[s4shadow]

nevermind i found it..listen to it while I wash some damn dishes
http://streamdb4web.securenetsystems.net/v5/KLIP?SPSID=90653&SPID=10981&DB_OEM_ID=19000

 

[Why'd-I-ever-start]

Nice call Diesel..I jumped on that wit ya...thanks

 

[dynasty]

Glad you got it at 5 shadow... I ended up with a lucky middle.

 

[Coolie]

Depending on ur line. Both sides won

 

[s4shadow]

Glad you got it at 5 shadow... I ended up with a lucky middle.

Nice. Ya I lucked out getting it @ 5 last night...they probably would have won outright if that dummy hadn't fouled on the 3 point shot w/ 1 sec left in regulation. Congrats to whoever else won.