I also read that the IP posted K St -29, but the game is not included in the list of the Imperial Palace's "College Games of the Year" that I have seen posted a couple places.
I do know of one offshore book that has the game available at K St -14 (can you believe it?), but I would not feel comfortable sending them money at the moment.
29 seems like a pretty good number to me, though I would probably still lean to K St. I read a discussion at the Cal message regarding the point spread -- they thought it was -22 (based on some guy's computer projection, not an actual line) -- and they were sure the pros would bet into Cal heavily at +22 and drive the line down at least 3 or 4 points. I got a good laugh out of that.
I do know of one offshore book that has the game available at K St -14 (can you believe it?), but I would not feel comfortable sending them money at the moment.
29 seems like a pretty good number to me, though I would probably still lean to K St. I read a discussion at the Cal message regarding the point spread -- they thought it was -22 (based on some guy's computer projection, not an actual line) -- and they were sure the pros would bet into Cal heavily at +22 and drive the line down at least 3 or 4 points. I got a good laugh out of that.
Be careful laying wood on K-State this early. There are stories going around the town that a couple of players broke a bone in a guys orbital socket during a mugging. While El Roberson wasn't involved in the mugging, he may have been in the car following the mugging. I've even hear a rumor about a convenience store video camera catching the perps going through the victims wallet after the mugging.
It could break any day now.
It could break any day now.
goto love cal without looking at this one. wait until the last second and if the points keep moving in cals favor pound it. cal will look at this one as a national championship game as they did with mich st on the road last year. ruined mich st's season because they bought into the hype and were reading their own print. cal is a decent program and can't be counted out. check out my thread before the game with mich st last year. this seems similar.http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=771094022&m=7233024876.
just my opinion
silver goblin
just my opinion
silver goblin
I would just note some differences between Cal at Mich St last year and Cal at K St (in KC) this year:
Huge difference in coaching -- Snyder vs. Williams
K St has better athletes (but not by much) than Mich St.
Unlike MSU, KSU has a history of focusing on and destroying outmanned opponents. KSU beat 6 of its eight Big 12 opponents last year by at least 34 points!
Cal went from -17 in TO's in '01 to +18 in '02. Some of that is coaching, but you can expect some regression to the mean -- even more so with Boller gone. I know Cal has some good JUCO's coming in, but they lost a ton of starters.
Huge difference in coaching -- Snyder vs. Williams
K St has better athletes (but not by much) than Mich St.
Unlike MSU, KSU has a history of focusing on and destroying outmanned opponents. KSU beat 6 of its eight Big 12 opponents last year by at least 34 points!
Cal went from -17 in TO's in '01 to +18 in '02. Some of that is coaching, but you can expect some regression to the mean -- even more so with Boller gone. I know Cal has some good JUCO's coming in, but they lost a ton of starters.
I never bet against KState at home, I have before on the 30+ dogs and have learned my lesson. I havent looked to closely on the matchup, but KState never hesitates to hang 60 on an opponent. I'll take just about any dog of 35 points or more, but never again vs KState--until something changes. I dont want to warn anyone off winner, but that has been my experience. Like I said before, I dont know much about Cal this year, but you really need a solid defense in order to hang in there with KState at home, and defense hasnt been the Pac10's strong suit lately. I'm still relatively shocked that my Horns upset KState last year in Manhattan.
I blindly take any college dog of +35 points, and add a little more to the few +40 dogs, but not vs KState, that is one of my angles for NCAA.
I blindly take any college dog of +35 points, and add a little more to the few +40 dogs, but not vs KState, that is one of my angles for NCAA.
This game is a toughie - Cal's D lost a ton and is especially weak against the run. Cal has a decent runningback but otherwise the offense is inexperienced. Couple this with going to a semi neutral (not really) site for an early game against a top 15 team and it smells trouble. Im not touching any side - maybe the over. Good post ATX
Silver Goblin has some excellent points about 1st Week Favorites in another thread. But I don't think this one qualifies.
Manhattan is is a mere two-hour drive from Arrowhead, so expect a sold-out crowd wearing Purple and Silver. Furthermore, Cal is the worst travelling team in the Pac-10, maybe the country,so expect about 50 or so Bears fans.
California lost everyone from a Defense that allowed about 30 ppg. Only five offensive returners, and the loss of QB Boller will substantially impact offensive output. It is probable that Cal will be the worst team in the Pac 10, running neck&neck with Arizona and Stanford.
Kansas State on the other hand is a potential national champion team, with most key starters returning, including key skill position guys. Snyder ALWAYS runs it up, no matter what time of year, now matter who the opponent. Just check their record against the spread when playing teams with losing records. In fact, just last year their average spread against Div. II teams and teams with losing records averaged 50 POINTS! And that doesn't include BLOW-OUT wins against Missouri (38-0), Nebraska (49-13) and Iowa State (58-7).
Extremely tough spot for Cal to open this year. Kansas State will win this game by 40 points. BTW - Oasis has an early line on this game at 28.
Good luck to all on a great year.
Kansas State has
Manhattan is is a mere two-hour drive from Arrowhead, so expect a sold-out crowd wearing Purple and Silver. Furthermore, Cal is the worst travelling team in the Pac-10, maybe the country,so expect about 50 or so Bears fans.
California lost everyone from a Defense that allowed about 30 ppg. Only five offensive returners, and the loss of QB Boller will substantially impact offensive output. It is probable that Cal will be the worst team in the Pac 10, running neck&neck with Arizona and Stanford.
Kansas State on the other hand is a potential national champion team, with most key starters returning, including key skill position guys. Snyder ALWAYS runs it up, no matter what time of year, now matter who the opponent. Just check their record against the spread when playing teams with losing records. In fact, just last year their average spread against Div. II teams and teams with losing records averaged 50 POINTS! And that doesn't include BLOW-OUT wins against Missouri (38-0), Nebraska (49-13) and Iowa State (58-7).
Extremely tough spot for Cal to open this year. Kansas State will win this game by 40 points. BTW - Oasis has an early line on this game at 28.
Good luck to all on a great year.
Kansas State has
great info, guys.
Gob's angle on next week opposition is a good one, but I have learned the hard way to take KState out of similar systems and angles that I use. KStates offense just isnt designed to run the clock out when they are ahead. With that QB and RB a touchdown can be scored on every single play, they arent as successful against good defensive teams, but I cant consider CAL a good defensive team, especially with the info posted above. I dont do this often, but this may be a game in which I take KState 1st half, full game, and 2nd half. I'm not saying this is a l*** by any stretch, but there could be value on each of those 3 wagers (1st half may be the one I discard).
Does anyone know anything about Oasis? I would appreciate any info, especially about their limits, and IF THEY PAY AND HOW FAST. Thanks in advance and good luck.
Gob's angle on next week opposition is a good one, but I have learned the hard way to take KState out of similar systems and angles that I use. KStates offense just isnt designed to run the clock out when they are ahead. With that QB and RB a touchdown can be scored on every single play, they arent as successful against good defensive teams, but I cant consider CAL a good defensive team, especially with the info posted above. I dont do this often, but this may be a game in which I take KState 1st half, full game, and 2nd half. I'm not saying this is a l*** by any stretch, but there could be value on each of those 3 wagers (1st half may be the one I discard).
Does anyone know anything about Oasis? I would appreciate any info, especially about their limits, and IF THEY PAY AND HOW FAST. Thanks in advance and good luck.
I'd also like any insight on Cal's offense this year. KState should be solid defensively, but any thoughts on Cal's O would be appreciated, we dont get a whole lot of info on Pac10 schools here.
I've seen a lot of KState's games when they are up by more than 30, and in a lot of games Snyder doesnt seem to try to run up the score, it just happens. They run a simple outside option and the RB or QB just breaks it for a 70 yard TD. The camera pans to Snyder and he looks a little frustrated almost, he looks like he calls simple plays to avoid running it up, but the talent just takes it to the house. IMO, he does try to score as many points as possible until close to the 4th quarter.
I've seen a lot of KState's games when they are up by more than 30, and in a lot of games Snyder doesnt seem to try to run up the score, it just happens. They run a simple outside option and the RB or QB just breaks it for a 70 yard TD. The camera pans to Snyder and he looks a little frustrated almost, he looks like he calls simple plays to avoid running it up, but the talent just takes it to the house. IMO, he does try to score as many points as possible until close to the 4th quarter.
k state is tough at home. they have a history of covering large spreads at home. this one just looks like everyone is hyped on k state. already saying they will be national champs. spoilers. linemakers know this about the folks betting this one. i am just stating that this will be a tough line. and cal plays with intensity. never know, but i will play on game day if this line climbs and climbs. just my opinion.
silver goblin
silver goblin
Not saying I like Cal here, but Coach Tedford is dangerous given this much time to scout an opponents' D. Tedford is one of the best young offensive minds in college football and is sure to have a few gadgets and tricks that will surprise an aggresive D like K-ST. That being said, Wildcats' athletes are a different caliber.
whormoan, did you get on it too? I stayed up a couple of nights so I wouldnt miss it.
I thought it would come out closer to 28-30, but that's where it should end up. I really dont understand why they came out with the line this low. Does anyone think they are getting any action on CAL right now, or at the +24?
I thought it would come out closer to 28-30, but that's where it should end up. I really dont understand why they came out with the line this low. Does anyone think they are getting any action on CAL right now, or at the +24?
