[h=1]Opening Line: Playoff line moves[/h][h=3]Week 17 gambling reactions and examining early postseason line moves[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Week 17 of the NFL season had all the drama we expected, and a lot we didn't, with bettors here in the sports books hanging on all the twists and turns.
Their heads were spinning with all the playoff scenarios changing throughout the day, and then we saw a jump to the wild-card lines when they were posted Sunday night. But more on those lines in the "Opening Line" section at the end of this column.
As for Week 17's action, the two win-or-stay-home battles for the NFC North and NFC East titles both went down to the wire. Green Bay, which closed as a 3-point road favorite at Chicago in QB Aaron Rodgers' return to action, prevailed in a back-and-forth battle as Rodgers hit Randall Cobb on a 48-yard touchdown pass on a fourth-and-8 play in the final minute of the game to win 33-28 and cover the spread. In the Sunday night season finale, Philadelphia closed as a 7.5-point road favorite with Dallas having to play Kyle Orton in place of injured Tony Romo. The Eagles looked as if they might cover, leading 24-16 in the fourth quarter. However, Orton's 32-yard TD pass to Dez Bryant pulled the Cowboys to within 24-22. That's where it stayed, and the Eagles failed to cover.
With the NFL moving some of the games with playoff implications to the 1:25 p.m. PT time slot, the "morning games" (10 a.m. Vegas time) certainly set the stage. Carolina struggled to put away Atlanta as a 6-point road favorite but prevailed 21-20 to claim one of the NFC's first-round byes. The biggest upset in the early games was the New York Jets knocking the Miami Dolphins out of the AFC's last wild-card spot with a 20-7 victory as a 7-point road underdog. The defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens also lost, 34-17 at Cincinnati, to set up the wildest of circumstances -- San Diego just had to win or tie its game against Kansas City in the afternoon session to make the playoffs. (And if the Chargers lost, the Pittsburgh Steelers would get in at 8-8).
Because the Chiefs were expected to rest starters as they were locked into the AFC's No. 5 seed, the Chargers had been a 9.5- to 10-point favorite all week. When it became apparent that the Chargers were in a win-and-they're-in position, the line was adjusted to minus-14 and bet to a Vegas consensus closing line of minus-14.5. However, the Chargers never even approached the spread and trailed 24-14 entering the fourth quarter before rallying to tie the score. The Chiefs had a chance to win at the end of regulation and send the Steelers to the playoffs, but Ryan Succop's field-goal attempt was wide right.
The Chargers won 27-24 in overtime, but they were the only big favorite that failed to cover in the afternoon games, as the sports books took a beating on parlays with most of the league's most popular teams. Denver routed Oakland 34-14 as a 10.5-point favorite (and it wasn't that close as the Broncos led 31-0 at halftime), and New England beat Buffalo 34-20 as a 7-point favorite to grab the AFC's first-round byes, plus Seattle blew out St. Louis 27-9 as a 12.5-point favorite to grab home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Add in New Orleans' 42-17 rout of Tampa Bay as a 10.5-point favorite, as well as Green Bay covering, and it was a chalk player's paradise.
Favorites were 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS in that afternoon session, and the only other 'dog -- besides the Chiefs against the Chargers -- to cover was San Francisco topping Arizona 23-20 after closing as a 3-point road underdog, and a popular one at that. Favorites went 13-3 straight up in Week 17 as the only other outright upset besides the Jets and the 49ers was the Vikings, who ended up closing as a consensus 1.5-point home underdog against Detroit in the final game at the Metrodome but won 14-13. Favorites went 9-6 against the spread to close out the season at 128-115 ATS (52.7 percent) with seven pushes. The Dolphins were the only home 'dog to win outright, although they went 3-2 ATS. Double-digit 'dogs, after sitting over 60 percent all season, went 1-4 ATS (the Chiefs were the only one to cover).
Here are the final regular-season betting stats we've been tracking all year:
<OFFER>Favorites: 175-74-1 SU, 128-115-7 (52.7 percent) … six games closed consensus pick 'em, so no favorite
Home teams: 152-100-1 SU, 136-110-7 ATS (55.3 percent) … doesn't count two games on neutral field in London, one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 31-56 SU, 44-40-3 ATS (52.4 percent)
Double-digit 'dogs: 7-27 SU, 18-15-1 ATS (54.5 percent)
Over/unders: 131-120-5 (52.2 percent)
[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 17[/h]
1. Must-win teams don't always win … but sometimes they do
We keep repeating the mantra "just because a team must win doesn't mean it will win" because it was true again in Week 17. The Panthers wanted a first-round bye but weren't able to cover against the Falcons, the Dolphins lost to the Jets with a wild-card spot at stake, and the Chargers barely survived against the Chiefs. None of them covered despite playing teams with "nothing to play for," and I'm not including Baltimore and Arizona, as they lost "must-win" games but those were against teams with something to play for (playoff seeding). But I'm adding the caveat "but sometimes they do" because we saw Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, Denver and Seattle all win and cover despite their inflated point spreads. Of course, every game is now a must win for every team remaining.
2. Over/under season win totals show 'over'achievers/'under'achievers
The popular over/under season win totals project how each team is expected to perform, but this year we had several teams that exceeded or fell way short of their expected win totals. The Panthers, whose total opened at seven wins back in May at the LVH SuperBook, ended up winning 12 games, blowing away their over/under by five games. The Cardinals won 10 games, crushing their over/under of 5.5 wins by 4.5 games, and the Chiefs, who opened with an over/under of seven, won 11 to go over by four. Those were three of the top four wiseguy over bets before the season started. The fourth? It was Detroit, which had an over/under of 7.5. The Lions were 7-5 but lost their last four games (despite having fourth-quarter leads in all of them … ouch!). The biggest underachiever, however, was Houston, which had an over/under win total of 10 but had lots of problems and finished with only two, falling a whopping eight wins short. The Falcons, also with an over/under of 10, managed only four, falling short by six. The Redskins finished five games below their over/under of eight as they only won three games.
3. Seahawks/49ers tie for best spread record; Texans cover finale but still worst
Expectations were high for the Seahawks and the 49ers this season, and they not only exceeded their over/under win totals (Seattle's number was 10.5 and it won 13 games, and San Fran's was 11.5 and it won 12) but also finished with the best against-the-spread record in the league at 11-5. The Cardinals were leading heading into the final week of the season, but their loss dropped them into a third-place tie with the Bengals at 10-5-1 ATS. You can see from the accompanying chart that the Packers are the only playoff team with an ATS record below .500, and that's because of their 1-7 ATS run starting when Rodgers was injured in the first meeting with the Bears. The worst ATS team was the Texans, at 4-12, even though they covered in Sunday's season finale against the Titans, losing only 16-10 as a 7-point underdog. The Bears were the second-worst spread team at 4-10-2, but they finished as the best "over" team at 12-4 (although that's mostly thanks to their poor defense). The Vikings were the second-best over team at 11-4-1, with the Broncos next at 11-5, as they went under in their last three games. The Panthers were the best under team at 11-4-1, with the Saints at 10-5-1 after going over in the finale.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
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[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
This is usually the list of games that are off the betting boards, but there are none this week with all the playoff teams' starting quarterbacks relatively healthy.
[h=3]Early Week 17 line moves[/h]
Here are the wild-card openers from the LVH, as that was the first Vegas book that came up on the Don Best odds screen and serves as our book of record. However, after halftime of the Eagles-Cowboys games, when the dates/times were announced for the wild-card round, the first lines I saw were from the Sportsbook.ag offshore site and then BetOnline.com and 5Dimes.com, so we'll look at how the lines all got bet into shape.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 17 LVH Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Chiefs o/u 46
Colts -2.5
Saints o/u 55
Eagles -2.5
Chargers o/u 47
Bengals -6.5
49ers -1
Packers o/u 49.5
<!-- end inline 3 -->Chiefs at Colts minus-2.5: Sportsbook opened the Colts minus-1.5, but BetOnline and 5Dimes went as high as 3. Those didn't last long, and, when the LVH posted the Colts minus-2.5 around 7:30 p.m. PT, that was the consensus number, and it has stayed there overnight, although some books are dealing heavier juice on the favorite, so we'll see whether it gets back to 3 anywhere. The over/under was bet up at the LVH from 46 to 46.5.
Saints at Eagles minus-2.5: This line obviously wasn't posted until after the Eagles held off the Cowboys. As such, it hasn't seen as much early betting as the others but has looked solid at Eagles minus-2.5 with an over/under of 55.
Chargers at Bengals minus-6.5: This opened as high as Bengals minus-7.5 at Sportsbook. BetOnline countered with minus-6, but that was quickly bet to 7.5. The LVH opened at minus-6.5 and has held the line there while most other books have settled in the middle at minus-7, although several books have heavier juice on the plus-7, so we could see this line waver between 6.5 and 7 early in the week. The over/under opened at 47 but has come down slightly to 46.5.
49ers minus-1 at Packers: This opened 49ers minus-2.5 at Sportsbook, but BetOnline and 5Dimes went with pick 'em. The LVH opened the 49ers as a 1-point road favorite, and, just like with the others, it got bet up to 1.5 and then 2 within 17 minutes and, after half an hour, everyone was up to 49ers minus-2.5. There's heavier juice on the favorite at some books, so we'll see whether it gets to 3, although I think that's as high as it'll go as bettors surely will bet the Pack as a 3-point home 'dog. The over/under opened at 49.5 and dipped to 49.
Happy handicapping, and come back Thursday as I'll have my "Tuley's Take" column looking at the public perception and the wiseguys' view of the NFL wild-card spreads and totals. Have a happy and safe New Year's.
LAS VEGAS -- Week 17 of the NFL season had all the drama we expected, and a lot we didn't, with bettors here in the sports books hanging on all the twists and turns.
Their heads were spinning with all the playoff scenarios changing throughout the day, and then we saw a jump to the wild-card lines when they were posted Sunday night. But more on those lines in the "Opening Line" section at the end of this column.
As for Week 17's action, the two win-or-stay-home battles for the NFC North and NFC East titles both went down to the wire. Green Bay, which closed as a 3-point road favorite at Chicago in QB Aaron Rodgers' return to action, prevailed in a back-and-forth battle as Rodgers hit Randall Cobb on a 48-yard touchdown pass on a fourth-and-8 play in the final minute of the game to win 33-28 and cover the spread. In the Sunday night season finale, Philadelphia closed as a 7.5-point road favorite with Dallas having to play Kyle Orton in place of injured Tony Romo. The Eagles looked as if they might cover, leading 24-16 in the fourth quarter. However, Orton's 32-yard TD pass to Dez Bryant pulled the Cowboys to within 24-22. That's where it stayed, and the Eagles failed to cover.
With the NFL moving some of the games with playoff implications to the 1:25 p.m. PT time slot, the "morning games" (10 a.m. Vegas time) certainly set the stage. Carolina struggled to put away Atlanta as a 6-point road favorite but prevailed 21-20 to claim one of the NFC's first-round byes. The biggest upset in the early games was the New York Jets knocking the Miami Dolphins out of the AFC's last wild-card spot with a 20-7 victory as a 7-point road underdog. The defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens also lost, 34-17 at Cincinnati, to set up the wildest of circumstances -- San Diego just had to win or tie its game against Kansas City in the afternoon session to make the playoffs. (And if the Chargers lost, the Pittsburgh Steelers would get in at 8-8).
Because the Chiefs were expected to rest starters as they were locked into the AFC's No. 5 seed, the Chargers had been a 9.5- to 10-point favorite all week. When it became apparent that the Chargers were in a win-and-they're-in position, the line was adjusted to minus-14 and bet to a Vegas consensus closing line of minus-14.5. However, the Chargers never even approached the spread and trailed 24-14 entering the fourth quarter before rallying to tie the score. The Chiefs had a chance to win at the end of regulation and send the Steelers to the playoffs, but Ryan Succop's field-goal attempt was wide right.
The Chargers won 27-24 in overtime, but they were the only big favorite that failed to cover in the afternoon games, as the sports books took a beating on parlays with most of the league's most popular teams. Denver routed Oakland 34-14 as a 10.5-point favorite (and it wasn't that close as the Broncos led 31-0 at halftime), and New England beat Buffalo 34-20 as a 7-point favorite to grab the AFC's first-round byes, plus Seattle blew out St. Louis 27-9 as a 12.5-point favorite to grab home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Add in New Orleans' 42-17 rout of Tampa Bay as a 10.5-point favorite, as well as Green Bay covering, and it was a chalk player's paradise.
Favorites were 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS in that afternoon session, and the only other 'dog -- besides the Chiefs against the Chargers -- to cover was San Francisco topping Arizona 23-20 after closing as a 3-point road underdog, and a popular one at that. Favorites went 13-3 straight up in Week 17 as the only other outright upset besides the Jets and the 49ers was the Vikings, who ended up closing as a consensus 1.5-point home underdog against Detroit in the final game at the Metrodome but won 14-13. Favorites went 9-6 against the spread to close out the season at 128-115 ATS (52.7 percent) with seven pushes. The Dolphins were the only home 'dog to win outright, although they went 3-2 ATS. Double-digit 'dogs, after sitting over 60 percent all season, went 1-4 ATS (the Chiefs were the only one to cover).
Here are the final regular-season betting stats we've been tracking all year:
<OFFER>Favorites: 175-74-1 SU, 128-115-7 (52.7 percent) … six games closed consensus pick 'em, so no favorite
Home teams: 152-100-1 SU, 136-110-7 ATS (55.3 percent) … doesn't count two games on neutral field in London, one in Toronto
Home underdogs: 31-56 SU, 44-40-3 ATS (52.4 percent)
Double-digit 'dogs: 7-27 SU, 18-15-1 ATS (54.5 percent)
Over/unders: 131-120-5 (52.2 percent)
[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 17[/h]
1. Must-win teams don't always win … but sometimes they do
We keep repeating the mantra "just because a team must win doesn't mean it will win" because it was true again in Week 17. The Panthers wanted a first-round bye but weren't able to cover against the Falcons, the Dolphins lost to the Jets with a wild-card spot at stake, and the Chargers barely survived against the Chiefs. None of them covered despite playing teams with "nothing to play for," and I'm not including Baltimore and Arizona, as they lost "must-win" games but those were against teams with something to play for (playoff seeding). But I'm adding the caveat "but sometimes they do" because we saw Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, Denver and Seattle all win and cover despite their inflated point spreads. Of course, every game is now a must win for every team remaining.
2. Over/under season win totals show 'over'achievers/'under'achievers
The popular over/under season win totals project how each team is expected to perform, but this year we had several teams that exceeded or fell way short of their expected win totals. The Panthers, whose total opened at seven wins back in May at the LVH SuperBook, ended up winning 12 games, blowing away their over/under by five games. The Cardinals won 10 games, crushing their over/under of 5.5 wins by 4.5 games, and the Chiefs, who opened with an over/under of seven, won 11 to go over by four. Those were three of the top four wiseguy over bets before the season started. The fourth? It was Detroit, which had an over/under of 7.5. The Lions were 7-5 but lost their last four games (despite having fourth-quarter leads in all of them … ouch!). The biggest underachiever, however, was Houston, which had an over/under win total of 10 but had lots of problems and finished with only two, falling a whopping eight wins short. The Falcons, also with an over/under of 10, managed only four, falling short by six. The Redskins finished five games below their over/under of eight as they only won three games.
3. Seahawks/49ers tie for best spread record; Texans cover finale but still worst
Expectations were high for the Seahawks and the 49ers this season, and they not only exceeded their over/under win totals (Seattle's number was 10.5 and it won 13 games, and San Fran's was 11.5 and it won 12) but also finished with the best against-the-spread record in the league at 11-5. The Cardinals were leading heading into the final week of the season, but their loss dropped them into a third-place tie with the Bengals at 10-5-1 ATS. You can see from the accompanying chart that the Packers are the only playoff team with an ATS record below .500, and that's because of their 1-7 ATS run starting when Rodgers was injured in the first meeting with the Bears. The worst ATS team was the Texans, at 4-12, even though they covered in Sunday's season finale against the Titans, losing only 16-10 as a 7-point underdog. The Bears were the second-worst spread team at 4-10-2, but they finished as the best "over" team at 12-4 (although that's mostly thanks to their poor defense). The Vikings were the second-best over team at 11-4-1, with the Broncos next at 11-5, as they went under in their last three games. The Panthers were the best under team at 11-4-1, with the Saints at 10-5-1 after going over in the finale.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2013 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
| Team | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com. All records based on VFV consensus closing lines; teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record, then ATS streak; O=over, U=under, P=push | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks (13-3) | 11-5 | W1 | 6-10 | U5 |
| San Francisco 49ers (12-4) | 11-5 | W1 | 8-8 | O3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) | 10-5-1 | W2 | 10-6 | O4 |
| Arizona Cardinals (10-6) | 10-5-1 | L1 | 8-8 | O1 |
| Denver Broncos (13-3) | 10-6 | W2 | 11-5 | U3 |
| Carolina Panthers (12-4) | 9-6-1 | L1 | 4-11-1 | U2 |
| Indianapolis Colts (11-5) | 9-6-1 | W3 | 8-8 | U3 |
| San Diego Chargers (9-7) | 9-6-1 | L1 | 7-9 | O1 |
| New York Jets (8-8) | 9-6-1 | W2 | 8-7-1 | U2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) | 9-7 | W1 | 7-9 | O1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) | 9-7 | W3 | 8-8 | U1 |
| Dallas Cowboys (8-8) | 9-7 | W1 | 8-7-1 | U2 |
| Miami Dolphins (8-8) | 9-7 | L2 | 6-9-1 | U3 |
| Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1) | 9-7 | W1 | 11-4-1 | U1 |
| Tennessee Titans (7-9) | 6-6-4 | L1 | 9-6-1 | U2 |
| New England Patriots (12-4) | 8-8 | W2 | 9-7 | O2 |
| New Orleans Saints (11-5) | 8-8 | W1 | 5-10-1 | O1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) | 8-8 | L1 | 9-7 | U1 |
| Buffalo Bills (6-10) | 8-8 | L1 | 9-6-1 | O1 |
| Oakland Raiders (4-12) | 8-8 | L4 | 7-8-1 | U2 |
| Baltimore Ravens (8-8) | 7-8-1 | L2 | 8-8 | O2 |
| New York Giants (7-9) | 7-9 | W2 | 6-9-1 | U3 |
| St. Louis Rams (7-9) | 7-9 | L1 | 9-7 | U5 |
| Atlanta Falcons (4-12) | 7-9 | W2 | 9-7 | U1 |
| Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) | 6-10 | W1 | 9-7 | O3 |
| Detroit Lions (7-9) | 6-10 | L4 | 8-8 | U3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) | 6-10 | L3 | 8-8 | O1 |
| Cleveland Browns (4-12) | 6-10 | L3 | 9-7 | U2 |
| Washington Redskins (3-13) | 5-11 | L1 | 8-8 | U2 |
| Chicago Bears (8-8) | 4-10-2 | L2 | 12-4 | O4 |
| Houston Texans (2-14) | 4-12 | W1 | 9-7 | U3 |
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[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
This is usually the list of games that are off the betting boards, but there are none this week with all the playoff teams' starting quarterbacks relatively healthy.
[h=3]Early Week 17 line moves[/h]
Here are the wild-card openers from the LVH, as that was the first Vegas book that came up on the Don Best odds screen and serves as our book of record. However, after halftime of the Eagles-Cowboys games, when the dates/times were announced for the wild-card round, the first lines I saw were from the Sportsbook.ag offshore site and then BetOnline.com and 5Dimes.com, so we'll look at how the lines all got bet into shape.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 17 LVH Openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Chiefs o/u 46
Colts -2.5
Saints o/u 55
Eagles -2.5
Chargers o/u 47
Bengals -6.5
49ers -1
Packers o/u 49.5
<!-- end inline 3 -->Chiefs at Colts minus-2.5: Sportsbook opened the Colts minus-1.5, but BetOnline and 5Dimes went as high as 3. Those didn't last long, and, when the LVH posted the Colts minus-2.5 around 7:30 p.m. PT, that was the consensus number, and it has stayed there overnight, although some books are dealing heavier juice on the favorite, so we'll see whether it gets back to 3 anywhere. The over/under was bet up at the LVH from 46 to 46.5.
Saints at Eagles minus-2.5: This line obviously wasn't posted until after the Eagles held off the Cowboys. As such, it hasn't seen as much early betting as the others but has looked solid at Eagles minus-2.5 with an over/under of 55.
Chargers at Bengals minus-6.5: This opened as high as Bengals minus-7.5 at Sportsbook. BetOnline countered with minus-6, but that was quickly bet to 7.5. The LVH opened at minus-6.5 and has held the line there while most other books have settled in the middle at minus-7, although several books have heavier juice on the plus-7, so we could see this line waver between 6.5 and 7 early in the week. The over/under opened at 47 but has come down slightly to 46.5.
49ers minus-1 at Packers: This opened 49ers minus-2.5 at Sportsbook, but BetOnline and 5Dimes went with pick 'em. The LVH opened the 49ers as a 1-point road favorite, and, just like with the others, it got bet up to 1.5 and then 2 within 17 minutes and, after half an hour, everyone was up to 49ers minus-2.5. There's heavier juice on the favorite at some books, so we'll see whether it gets to 3, although I think that's as high as it'll go as bettors surely will bet the Pack as a 3-point home 'dog. The over/under opened at 49.5 and dipped to 49.
Happy handicapping, and come back Thursday as I'll have my "Tuley's Take" column looking at the public perception and the wiseguys' view of the NFL wild-card spreads and totals. Have a happy and safe New Year's.
