[h=1]Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 5[/h]Will Harris, ESPN Contributor
ESPN INSIDER
Duke, East Carolina, Akron and Utah were the only underdog winners in Week 4, with the Utes headlining a big day for the road teams on a loaded Pac-12 slate. Now, in the fourth week of the college football season, the SEC takes center stage with three matchups of ranked teams. Inside, we talk broken SEC offenses, the most banged-up teams in the Big Ten and concerns for our preseason national title pick. Plus we'll look at the two big movers in the futures market and see what the early numbers have to say about the coming week.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so its numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
[h=2]Adjustments and takeaways, Week 4[/h]SEC Offenses
It's a rough year for SEC offenses. Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Missouri and Kentucky are the five teams that returned a quarterback who took more than half his team's 2014 snaps. Three of the quarterbacks have a new playcaller, and exactly zero are pleased with the 2015 offensive output. Tennessee's passing game has stalled, Arkansas' big uglies aren't as dominant, State can't run, Kentucky can't protect, and in Columbia West, one of those five quarterbacks (Maty Mauk) is already losing time.
Of the remaining nine, the teams that are the happiest with their offensive improvement are the two who returned part-time starters (Texas A&M and Vanderbilt) and the two piloted by transfers who stepped onto teams with lots of returning talent around them (Georgia and Ole Miss).
Steve Spurrier has been through three quarterbacks already, but he's finally found his man in Lorenzo Nunez. Spurrier might be able to manufacture some wins around the big-play abilities of Nunez and wideout Pharoh Cooper, and especially the mobility that allows Nunez to move the chains with third-down scrambles, a key component of the offense's success during Connor Shaw's time.
Unhappiest of all are the offenses sporting a first-year starter who was the team's primary backup last season. LSU's outlook with Brandon Harris is the rosiest because little is asked of a quarterback leading an offense that contains Leonard Fournette. The passing game remains unproven, but at least the whole offense isn't broken.
"Broken" has been a reasonable description of what's been happening at Auburn for a few weeks now, but Alabama merits that label as well. Every position group plus the staff has so far failed to meet even modest expectations. The main culprit is the quarterback position, where a guy who's not the answer remains on the field because there's no solution on the bench. Alabama still has a shot at exceeding our preseason expectations of 10-3 or so, but the staff's overall offensive operation is not as strong this season, and it's tough having quarterback issues on an offense with just three guys who have started more than three games. Nick Saban will quiet the "Is the Alabama dynasty over?" talk by returning to contention in future seasons, but the 2015 team is not done losing games.
Michigan State disappointing
We had Michigan State pegged as the nation's No. 1 team in the preseason, but just as that sentiment gains popularity, we're easing off this bandwagon, and have been since the win over Oregon. The concerns are as follows: a leaky secondary, poor special teams, disappointment that Connor Cook hasn't gone from good to great, a growing injury list and, most importantly, a running game that hasn't been nearly as effective, dominant or consistent as its personnel suggests that it should be. Like Ohio State, this team has the coaching to improve to championship levels by the end of the season, so we're not giving up all hope just yet, but Sparty is no longer in our top five, and right now we're liking our Oklahoma futures a lot better than the green-and-white ones.
Ours aren't the only expectations the Spartans haven't lived up to: They're now one of three Power Five teams that are 0-4 against the spread (ATS), along with Arizona State, Auburn and Missouri. Michigan State has the fewest warts of that group, but typically starting 0-4 ATS means that all is not well, and no national champion of the BCS/Playoff era ever started worse than 2-2 ATS.
Duke defense
The Duke defense is certainly climbing the charts. Georgia Tech's principal offensive question mark entering the season was whether it could adequately replace nearly all the skill players around quarterback Justin Thomas, and that issue has not yet been solved. Nor is the offensive line playing that well. Duke still hasn't seen an offense that's remotely clicking, but this defense has overcome some key personnel losses better than we anticipated. Jeremy Cashlooks like a repeat All-American, and Dwayne Norman, who was at times a liability at safety last season, has been a playmaker at linebacker. Size along the line is the biggest issue, and the Devils' toughest matchups will be against teams that can run downhill behind big offensive fronts. Next up is a scuffling Boston College offense that was already rebuilding its offensive line and has now lost its top quarterback and running back.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 2[/h]
Arkansas (+6) versus Tennessee
Can either team get off the mat and summon the will to win? That's the No. 1 question we'll be trying hard to answer all week, as both teams find themselves in obvious fade spots. Ideally you'd like a better hammer when it's time to fade a dejected squad unlikely to play its best, but sometimes fate just deals you another downtrodden team. Normally in that scenario the best move is to pass, but we've got a hypothesis that one of these teams is in a lot worse shape than the other. Test results later in the week if it pans out.
Minnesota (+5) at Northwestern
With two struggling offenses and defenses this salty, it's awfully hard to lay any points, a sentiment shared by early bettors who have driven this number down a bit. But in addition to the pedestrian attacks, stingy stop units, and a propensity to play (and win) close games, these two currently share another quality: poor health. Minnesota's offensive line has endured constant shuffling due to injuries all season, and the Gophers are now down some key defensive players as well. Northwestern is banged up all around after seeing seven players leave last week's game with injury. We'll be tracking these teams' health as the week wears on.
UNLV (+7) versus Nevada
We're not ready to make any proclamations about first-year UNLV coach Tony Sanchez's ceiling yet, but the early returns are very promising. And we've been consistently pessimistic about Brian Polian's chances to maintain Nevada's place in the Mountain West pecking order while trying to replace school legend Chris Ault. So far, we like Sanchez's approach to the rivalry, and we'll be watching to see how he handles his team this week, as well as how much cross-country travel to play a flu-infested Buffalo team taxes the Pack's preparations. The general thought is that UNLV is about to gain control of this series for a while.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]The biggest reaction to Week 4 in the national title futures market was the Westgate dropping Michigan from 500:1 to 60:1. That's a huge move, but there's no denying that the Wolverines look good, have a championship-caliber coaching staff and an easier road than expected in a Big Ten East whose supposed top three teams have all looked weaker than projected.
Utah's dismemberment of Oregon dropped the Utes' odds from 200:1 to 40:1. Georgia and LSU, formerly 12:1, joined Ole Miss at 10:1. Notre Dame believers drove the Irish from 25:1 to 15:1, perhaps pursuing some last-chance action before a win over Clemson wrecks the price for good.
UCLA won big, yet saw its price lengthen from 20:1 to 30:1. We'd call backing the Bruins to win it all a bad bet at any halfway reasonable price. Our pick for best value is still Oklahoma, down to 25:1 from 30:1 last week.
Vanderbilt won its first 12 games against Middle Tennessee State, holding the Blue Raiders to an average of 2.75 points per game in a dozen meetings from 1915-56. Middle has won all three in the modern era, scoring an average of 25 points in 2001, 2002 and 2005. Vanderbilt was favored in all three of those games but is a one-point dog this time after being bet down from an opener of plus-3.5.
Other early underdog moves include Purdue (+25.5 to +22) at Michigan State, North Carolina (+10 to +7.5) at Georgia Tech, Ball State (+9.5 to +6.5) versus Toledo, Tulsa (+10 to +6.5) versus Houston, Texas (+19.5 to +15.5) at TCU, and Colorado (+12.5 to +9) versus Oregon.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]Under Willie Taggart, South Florida has been hapless on offense and occasionally inspired on defense. No wonder that just five of the 24 games Taggart has coached against FBS teams have gone over the total. Something has to give against Memphis, which enters having scored 55 points in its bowl game to close last season and averaging just under that in four games so far in 2015. Seven straight Tigers games have gone over the total.
Gary Pinkel has won exactly two-thirds of his career games following a loss, and he's covered at just over a 60 percent clip in those spots since arriving at Missouri.
Losing 34-14 at Kansas was the low point of 2014 for Iowa State, and the Jayhawks were so starved for success that their fans stormed the goalposts afterward, celebrating just the school's fourth win over a Power Five opponent since current Cyclones offensive coordinator Mark Mangino was head coach in Lawrence. But even with this track record and an improved Iowa State squad no doubt seeking redemption, this price was a little higher than we expected. Iowa State has been favored by less than four the past three seasons. The two years prior, the Jayhawks lost but covered double-digit spreads. Kansas is sporting one of the thinnest Big 12 rosters we've ever seen, but the Jayhawks have been competing hard and Iowa State is a not a team we'd ask to lay a bunch of points.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>California was a rare road favorite in Seattle last week but survived Washington despite again struggling in the four-minute offense, which continues to be the main weakness of the Bear Raid with injured running back Daniel Lasco on the shelf. Jeff Tedford's first season at Cal was 2002, which was Mike Price's last year at Washington State. The next decade saw Tedford build some of the most talented teams in school history, while the Cougars fielded some historically bad ones under Bill Doba and Paul Wulff. Yet Cal only laid Washington State this many points once in that era, and the Coogs covered four of five when getting double digits. This is another number that was higher than we expected and awfully inflated by historical standards.
Alabama being installed as an underdog for the first time in 73 games is generating some press, but what about the Tide's overall track record in its most difficult games? Since that last game as an underdog -- a 32-13 whipping of Florida in the 2009 SEC championship game -- Bama and Saban have covered just a third of their games as single-digit favorites.
ESPN INSIDER
Duke, East Carolina, Akron and Utah were the only underdog winners in Week 4, with the Utes headlining a big day for the road teams on a loaded Pac-12 slate. Now, in the fourth week of the college football season, the SEC takes center stage with three matchups of ranked teams. Inside, we talk broken SEC offenses, the most banged-up teams in the Big Ten and concerns for our preseason national title pick. Plus we'll look at the two big movers in the futures market and see what the early numbers have to say about the coming week.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so its numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
[h=2]Adjustments and takeaways, Week 4[/h]SEC Offenses
It's a rough year for SEC offenses. Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Missouri and Kentucky are the five teams that returned a quarterback who took more than half his team's 2014 snaps. Three of the quarterbacks have a new playcaller, and exactly zero are pleased with the 2015 offensive output. Tennessee's passing game has stalled, Arkansas' big uglies aren't as dominant, State can't run, Kentucky can't protect, and in Columbia West, one of those five quarterbacks (Maty Mauk) is already losing time.
Of the remaining nine, the teams that are the happiest with their offensive improvement are the two who returned part-time starters (Texas A&M and Vanderbilt) and the two piloted by transfers who stepped onto teams with lots of returning talent around them (Georgia and Ole Miss).
Steve Spurrier has been through three quarterbacks already, but he's finally found his man in Lorenzo Nunez. Spurrier might be able to manufacture some wins around the big-play abilities of Nunez and wideout Pharoh Cooper, and especially the mobility that allows Nunez to move the chains with third-down scrambles, a key component of the offense's success during Connor Shaw's time.
Unhappiest of all are the offenses sporting a first-year starter who was the team's primary backup last season. LSU's outlook with Brandon Harris is the rosiest because little is asked of a quarterback leading an offense that contains Leonard Fournette. The passing game remains unproven, but at least the whole offense isn't broken.
"Broken" has been a reasonable description of what's been happening at Auburn for a few weeks now, but Alabama merits that label as well. Every position group plus the staff has so far failed to meet even modest expectations. The main culprit is the quarterback position, where a guy who's not the answer remains on the field because there's no solution on the bench. Alabama still has a shot at exceeding our preseason expectations of 10-3 or so, but the staff's overall offensive operation is not as strong this season, and it's tough having quarterback issues on an offense with just three guys who have started more than three games. Nick Saban will quiet the "Is the Alabama dynasty over?" talk by returning to contention in future seasons, but the 2015 team is not done losing games.
Michigan State disappointing
We had Michigan State pegged as the nation's No. 1 team in the preseason, but just as that sentiment gains popularity, we're easing off this bandwagon, and have been since the win over Oregon. The concerns are as follows: a leaky secondary, poor special teams, disappointment that Connor Cook hasn't gone from good to great, a growing injury list and, most importantly, a running game that hasn't been nearly as effective, dominant or consistent as its personnel suggests that it should be. Like Ohio State, this team has the coaching to improve to championship levels by the end of the season, so we're not giving up all hope just yet, but Sparty is no longer in our top five, and right now we're liking our Oklahoma futures a lot better than the green-and-white ones.
Ours aren't the only expectations the Spartans haven't lived up to: They're now one of three Power Five teams that are 0-4 against the spread (ATS), along with Arizona State, Auburn and Missouri. Michigan State has the fewest warts of that group, but typically starting 0-4 ATS means that all is not well, and no national champion of the BCS/Playoff era ever started worse than 2-2 ATS.
Duke defense
The Duke defense is certainly climbing the charts. Georgia Tech's principal offensive question mark entering the season was whether it could adequately replace nearly all the skill players around quarterback Justin Thomas, and that issue has not yet been solved. Nor is the offensive line playing that well. Duke still hasn't seen an offense that's remotely clicking, but this defense has overcome some key personnel losses better than we anticipated. Jeremy Cashlooks like a repeat All-American, and Dwayne Norman, who was at times a liability at safety last season, has been a playmaker at linebacker. Size along the line is the biggest issue, and the Devils' toughest matchups will be against teams that can run downhill behind big offensive fronts. Next up is a scuffling Boston College offense that was already rebuilding its offensive line and has now lost its top quarterback and running back.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 2[/h]
Arkansas (+6) versus Tennessee
Can either team get off the mat and summon the will to win? That's the No. 1 question we'll be trying hard to answer all week, as both teams find themselves in obvious fade spots. Ideally you'd like a better hammer when it's time to fade a dejected squad unlikely to play its best, but sometimes fate just deals you another downtrodden team. Normally in that scenario the best move is to pass, but we've got a hypothesis that one of these teams is in a lot worse shape than the other. Test results later in the week if it pans out.
Minnesota (+5) at Northwestern
With two struggling offenses and defenses this salty, it's awfully hard to lay any points, a sentiment shared by early bettors who have driven this number down a bit. But in addition to the pedestrian attacks, stingy stop units, and a propensity to play (and win) close games, these two currently share another quality: poor health. Minnesota's offensive line has endured constant shuffling due to injuries all season, and the Gophers are now down some key defensive players as well. Northwestern is banged up all around after seeing seven players leave last week's game with injury. We'll be tracking these teams' health as the week wears on.
UNLV (+7) versus Nevada
We're not ready to make any proclamations about first-year UNLV coach Tony Sanchez's ceiling yet, but the early returns are very promising. And we've been consistently pessimistic about Brian Polian's chances to maintain Nevada's place in the Mountain West pecking order while trying to replace school legend Chris Ault. So far, we like Sanchez's approach to the rivalry, and we'll be watching to see how he handles his team this week, as well as how much cross-country travel to play a flu-infested Buffalo team taxes the Pack's preparations. The general thought is that UNLV is about to gain control of this series for a while.
[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]The biggest reaction to Week 4 in the national title futures market was the Westgate dropping Michigan from 500:1 to 60:1. That's a huge move, but there's no denying that the Wolverines look good, have a championship-caliber coaching staff and an easier road than expected in a Big Ten East whose supposed top three teams have all looked weaker than projected.
Utah's dismemberment of Oregon dropped the Utes' odds from 200:1 to 40:1. Georgia and LSU, formerly 12:1, joined Ole Miss at 10:1. Notre Dame believers drove the Irish from 25:1 to 15:1, perhaps pursuing some last-chance action before a win over Clemson wrecks the price for good.
UCLA won big, yet saw its price lengthen from 20:1 to 30:1. We'd call backing the Bruins to win it all a bad bet at any halfway reasonable price. Our pick for best value is still Oklahoma, down to 25:1 from 30:1 last week.
Vanderbilt won its first 12 games against Middle Tennessee State, holding the Blue Raiders to an average of 2.75 points per game in a dozen meetings from 1915-56. Middle has won all three in the modern era, scoring an average of 25 points in 2001, 2002 and 2005. Vanderbilt was favored in all three of those games but is a one-point dog this time after being bet down from an opener of plus-3.5.
Other early underdog moves include Purdue (+25.5 to +22) at Michigan State, North Carolina (+10 to +7.5) at Georgia Tech, Ball State (+9.5 to +6.5) versus Toledo, Tulsa (+10 to +6.5) versus Houston, Texas (+19.5 to +15.5) at TCU, and Colorado (+12.5 to +9) versus Oregon.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]Under Willie Taggart, South Florida has been hapless on offense and occasionally inspired on defense. No wonder that just five of the 24 games Taggart has coached against FBS teams have gone over the total. Something has to give against Memphis, which enters having scored 55 points in its bowl game to close last season and averaging just under that in four games so far in 2015. Seven straight Tigers games have gone over the total.
Gary Pinkel has won exactly two-thirds of his career games following a loss, and he's covered at just over a 60 percent clip in those spots since arriving at Missouri.
Losing 34-14 at Kansas was the low point of 2014 for Iowa State, and the Jayhawks were so starved for success that their fans stormed the goalposts afterward, celebrating just the school's fourth win over a Power Five opponent since current Cyclones offensive coordinator Mark Mangino was head coach in Lawrence. But even with this track record and an improved Iowa State squad no doubt seeking redemption, this price was a little higher than we expected. Iowa State has been favored by less than four the past three seasons. The two years prior, the Jayhawks lost but covered double-digit spreads. Kansas is sporting one of the thinnest Big 12 rosters we've ever seen, but the Jayhawks have been competing hard and Iowa State is a not a team we'd ask to lay a bunch of points.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>California was a rare road favorite in Seattle last week but survived Washington despite again struggling in the four-minute offense, which continues to be the main weakness of the Bear Raid with injured running back Daniel Lasco on the shelf. Jeff Tedford's first season at Cal was 2002, which was Mike Price's last year at Washington State. The next decade saw Tedford build some of the most talented teams in school history, while the Cougars fielded some historically bad ones under Bill Doba and Paul Wulff. Yet Cal only laid Washington State this many points once in that era, and the Coogs covered four of five when getting double digits. This is another number that was higher than we expected and awfully inflated by historical standards.
Alabama being installed as an underdog for the first time in 73 games is generating some press, but what about the Tide's overall track record in its most difficult games? Since that last game as an underdog -- a 32-13 whipping of Florida in the 2009 SEC championship game -- Bama and Saban have covered just a third of their games as single-digit favorites.
