*****DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH] projecting win probability [ Packers vs 49ers ] by Harold Johnson NFL Analyst, handicapper
The Packers are playing well, but the 49ers have them beaten in almost every way. When it comes to the offenses, San Francisco has the better weapons and ball movement. San Francisco matches Green Bay's strong ball security and pass protection. Last week, the Packers defense couldn’t defend Jake Ferguson. The Dallas tight end finished with 12 targets, 10 receptions, 93 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Green Bay defense was so focused on CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks in the secondary that it left the middle of the field wide open for Ferguson. I’m expecting the same situation against the 49ers since Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk will be the deep threats for Brock Purdy, and George Kittle should be able to break off into the middle of the field for an easy catch. Kittle and Ferguson are very similar in the fact they are both solid blocking tight ends, but they are also incredibly useful in the passing game. Purdy loved to target Kittle for deep plays in the regular season and that shouldn’t change in the Divisional Round.
Defensively, the 49ers are better against the run, better against the pass, and force more turnovers. San Francisco also has better pass rushing. The Packers are good, but facing a better team on the road. Roll with the 49ers to cover the spread as they keep the Packers under 20 points and score at least 30. I see this game unfolding in one of two ways. The first way is the 49ers win but the Packers put up a good fight to keep it close. In that process, I can see a back-and-forth affair where playmakers and quarterbacks on both sides shine under the big stage.
A different way I see this game unfolding is the 49ers still winning and doing so comfortably as their talent and experience win out. Even if that happens, I see more than 51 points being mustered up by both teams. San Francisco has been pretty much unstoppable when its crafty ground game has been firing, as it’s 10-0 when rushing for 140 yards or more with an average margin of victory of nearly 10 points maybe more.
With all this said the teaser is best bet for me >> 2 team 7-point teaser 49ers -3 1/2 & Over 43 1/2
Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
George Kittle Over 52 1/2 yards -110
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