it lost, but it wasn't a bad bet. people too often think when teams are up huge at HT that they won't cover the 2nd because they won't care and backups will be in.
im sure plays like these win over time, especially if you pick your spots correctly.
Disagree with you. This was a bad bet taking Duke.
Years ago, when i started betting, I would always take teams like Duke and lose a lot more than win.
Even if Duke was up by say 9 or 10 in the 2nd half, I have found a team like UVA would go a 4-0 or 6-0 run to close out games. You see this all the time, a team is clearly better than the opponent, but the 2nd half scoring turns out to be +/- 2 or 3 for either side. Marquette was playing, I believe WCU, this year, up 29 at the the break or something similar. They got outscored by 10 by WCU in the 2nd half.
The effort by the winning team completely disappears. What generally gives a team a huge lead is defense that leads to easy offense. However, in the 2nd Half the defensive effort is nearly gone. I believe Dukes largest lead may have been 26 or 27. Not only do you have to have a 30 point lead and then maintain it with the scrubs late.
If it were any team besides Duke or UNC, the 2nd half line would or should have been -3 or -3.5.