drunken NFL week 6

[drunkguy]

Last week 3-1-1 +2.9 units

Season to date:

20-10-3 +11.1 units

Getting down early on two while I can still get the better line (both available at Carib right now)

Miami -3 Jacksonville (2 units)

Leftwich has had it easy so far against SD and Hou, will not have success against a much stronger Miami D (#3 vs rush, #3 vs pass). R. Williams will open up the passing game for Miami. Lots of offense for Miami in this one.

Buffalo -2.5 New York Jets

NYJ horrible against the run (dead last in league). If Travis Henry is healed he should have a field day. Buffalo defense started decent, but have been giving up running yards. But Jets have been unable to run the ball. Bills strength is pass defense, 1st in NFL. Look for the Buffalo passing game to get back to early season form as well, once the running game opens up the pass. New York has defended against the pass well, but there hasn't been a need to pass against a team when you can run all over them.

 

[sammythesage]

see your doing well in some contests at other forums. do you have list of contests out there, might try for next year?

 

[drunkguy]

Not gonna post here due to the posting URL rules. Hit me up at either:

AOL IM: xxxxxxx (online now)

hotmail: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Leave a message here once you see this so I can edit out the addresses.

[This message was edited by drunkguy on October 08, 2003 at 12:17 AM.]

 

[sammythesage]

missed it guy; will post a time as when I'll be on or vica versa. by the way; do you think any of these contests are non-legit. ie. the winner had better have an account before winning??? yes realize w/most you have to post up ahead of time, but some you don't. also do they sell your mail address?

 

[drunkguy]

just didn't want to leave it up all night. Guess i can leave the AOL IM name up, since I can't really get spammed through that:

AOl IM: TEPdrunk (usually on only at night)

Think every contest I deal with is legit. Have been paid from a few already. As far as selling address, Iw ouldn't be surprised, but I get so much crap the way it is, it hasn't made a difference.

 

[drunkguy]

love big NFL doggies, so adding the following:

Houston +10.5 Tennessee

Atlanta +11.5 St Louis

 

[drunkguy]

Adding a rare totals play:

Buffalo/New York Jets UNDER 37.5

Buff and NYJ are ranked 31 and 32 respectively in rushing, but their defenses are 23 and 32. I expect both teams to spend a lot of time on the ground to exploit each other's weak defenses. NYJ has been desperate to get a rushing game going, and this may be the week they can succeeed. Strength of both teams is the pass offense (Buff #14, NYJ #9), but their pass defenses are also among the best in the league (Buff #1, NYJ #5). One reason NYJ pass D is so good is that no one has needed to pass against them due to their weak run defense (NYJ only thrown against 91 times this season, lowest in NFL, rest of NFL ranges from 124-199). Buffalo is without Moulds, which should slow the passing game. In short, both teams strengths are matched up evenly. with Travis Henry back, Buffalo should be able to run effectively enough to win this game, but it will be a clock control game. Also decent possiblity that NYJ get shut out, which greatly favors the under.


Write-ups for yesterday's picks:

Houston +10.5 Tenessee

Houston offense has been decent and coming off bye week. Tenneessee coming off loss to NE and 2-game road stretch, and looking ahead to Carolina. This is Tennessee's only home game sandwicked in the middle of 4 road games. Houston fired up over late, gutsy win against Jacksonville two weeks ago. Tennessee ground game has been struggling, so I look for Houston to keep it close.

Atlanta +11.5 St Louis

I'm still not sold on St Louis, and Atlanta is loaded with talent but underperforming. I'll take a shot with them on Monday night. Atlanta has been killed the past few weeks in what is likely the toughest run on their schedule, leaving them 1-4. Desperation can do a lot for a team, especially on Monday night. Brian Finneran is Johnson's go-to guy, and expected back this week. That should jump-start this offense. St Louis has played more conservatively on offense as of late, and Atlanta has been very weak against the run (29th) in NFL. I see Rams controlling the clock and keeping it within reach of a backdoor cover.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Drunk - love the card. I am on Atlanta and Miami with you. Also like Tampa to rebound and a couple of others. Nice write-ups.

Good luck this week-end.

 

[drunkguy]

Adding one last game:

Chicago +7 -120 New Orleans (1/2 pt buy)

Two teams struggling early in the season. New Orleans can't seem to get their offense together, Bears can't seem to get anything together. However, Bears off big win last week, and momentum may carry them through. I will gladly take 7 points in a battle of two of the worst teams in the NFC.

 

[drunkguy]

very glad I bought to 7 on that Bears game for the push. Tough week, but luckily the 2 unit play hit to keep me from getting hurt too much

Recap:

Miami -3 Jacksonville (2 units) WIN
Buffalo -2.5 New York Jets LOSE
Houston +10.5 Tennessee LOSE
Atlanta +11.5 St Louis LOSE
Buffalo/New York Jets UNDER 37.5 WIN
Chicago +7 -120 New Orleans (1/2 pt buy) PUSH

this week:

2-3-1 -0.3 units

year to date:

22-13-4 +10.8 units