drunken NFL week 5

[drunkguy]

Last week: 8-1 +6.8 units

Year to date: 17-9-2 +8.2 units

Early plays this week:

Washington +5 Philadelphia (2units)

Philly looked to be back on track last week in their "must-win", but I'm not buying it. Ground game is still weak and McNabb still has little confidence and even less receiver talent. Facing a tough Washington D, I don't expect much. Washington has been surprisingly hot this year, so I'll stick with the road divisiaonal dog. Washington has kept them close, so i will take the 5.

Detroit +7 San Francisco

Detroit running game finally looking decent and Harrington to Rodgers is becoming a potent combination. Were able to keep it close at Denver last week, while San Fran secondary was totally exploited by Minnesota. I have little confidence in San Fran after a few poor outings, so like Detroit as a live dog.

More to come later

 

[Oren1]

good luck, I was looking at these 2 plays as well.

 

Drunk-
Couldn't agree more, I also like San Diego to get a win this week. I think a 3 team ML parlay may be in order, Good Luck

 

[cazzi_salati]

Philly looked to be back on track last week in their "must-win", but I'm not buying it. Ground game is still weak

Drunk, the Eagles are gaining the highest yards per carry on offense and they are giving up the lowest yards per carry on defense.

You may be right about the line, but the Eagles' ground game is not "weak". Something to consider.... good luck this week whatever sides you take.

 

[drunkguy]

cazzi-

point taken and thanks for the input. I always appreciate comments, especially on the other side of my pick. Makes me see what I might have missed.

Personally I think that rushing stat is misleading. Eagles have 398 yards on 66 rushes (6.0 per carry) in 3 games. Looks impressive, but James Thrash had 2 carries for 52 yards (one for 47) and Westbrook had a field day last week bumping up the stats. McNabb has 156 of those yards, and the two "other" backs are at 35 and 25 yards each on 14 and 12 carries.

134 of their yards have come on the three longest plays. That means on their other 63 attempts they are averaging just about 4 per play. Not bad, but those long breaks really skew that stats early in the season.

McNabb and thrash have over half the rushing yards, meaning the running backs aren't doing their jobs. And look at who they played: Tampa (19th rush D), Buf (25th rush D), (15th rush D). No powewrhouses there. Washington is 11th.

Yes, Phi also has given up least amount of yards per game, but look at who they played...Tampa, New england, and Buffalo without T. Henry (only gave up 21 in this game). Not exactly powerhouse runners here. Tampa (27th rush O), Buff (dead last), NE (21st O). Washington is 13.

Obviously there is a lot of objectivity in this, but I think the ground game will really struggle against the skins. I don't take much credit in these numbers early in the season, but it is something to consider.

good luck this weekend and thanks for chiming in with your thoughts.

 

[jateeluv]

Take Skins moneyline... philly's D is week and with the speed of skins offense any blitzes that JJ does could mean the Skins takin it EZ.

 

[nfny]

i like the eagles. the skins were down big to ATL and NYG and needed comebacks. had a big lead last week but blew it. they are an up and down team.

on the road, vs the philly def, they will be down

 

[xpanda]

The Eagles/Skins game is certainly one of the more interesting matchups on the board this week. Philly goes on the road next week to Dallas, and then on the road again to the Giants. Three straight division games for a team who's posting 1-2 right now ... this is their only home game of the three, so if you thought last week was a must-win, think about how much this week means.

Washington, IMO, is way over-hyped right now. Their wins to date haven't been overly convincing, beating NE, Atl, and NYJ by 3 or less points. Plus, they have Tampa on deck.

Does anyone see this line moving down to 4.5 with the public heavily favouring the Skins??

 

[drunkguy]

jateeluv - ML is definitely an option I am considering and may add it later in the week.

xpanda - personally, I see the line staying right about where it is. Don't think Washington has as much support as you think, especially on the road. But I have been wrong before, and may be again on this one.

 

[drunkguy]

Adding a couple nice doggies before the lines move down (already started at some places). I love to take the points with teams nobody thinks has a chance...more often than not the line has been pushed up to the point where you can grab a lot of value. With all the parity in the NFL, I always look to take TD dogs, so here are 3 nice ones for this week.

Arizona +7.5 Dallas

Cowboys still a young team and can't see why they are laying a TD-plus. True, Dallas is on top of their game lately, but I think they are playing above their level and will let up a bit this week. Emmitt should be looking forward to this big revenge game and should be able to run against Cowboys D, and Blake should be able to connect to his receivers. May also be a look ahead for Dallas with PHI on the schedule. Not calling for an ARI win here, but should be close enough to take the points and win it.

New Orleans +7 Carolina

This may be the week that New Orleans offense finally pulls it back together. They've been getting killed by mistakes, but when their offense clicks, they can beat anyone. Like above, expect Carolina to start crashing back down any time now, and hopefully this is the week. Worst case scenario I look for a backdoor cover getting this many points.

Cincinatti +8 Buffalo

Cincinnati is probably one of the most underrated teams in the NFL, hanging in some tough games this year. Obviously, Dillon out is a concern, but Buffalo looked terrible without Henry last week, and he may still be banged up. Think Cinci can once again hang in their, and should have some confidence with a win under their belt.

 

[Menses]

Interesting Picks. Most of which have been in my scope. A few things. I've been getting Cinci +10 and I do believe they are underrated. They wont win but I do believe a back door is in order. Orleans looks like the correct play this week but thats what last week was for. Saints plagued with injuries from last week, Jones, Grady, Smith among the few others that will mis the game. Carolina beat them 10-6 last year on the roadand that was without Delhomme...Id be careful with this one

 

[drunkguy]

recap:

Washington +5 Philadelphia (2units) WIN
Detroit +7 San Francisco PUSH
Arizona +7.5 Dallas LOSE
New Orleans +7 Carolina WIN
Cincinatti +8 Buffalo WIN

This week 3-1-1 +2.9 units

Season to date:

20-10-3 +11.1 units