drunken CFB week 9

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finally got a big week last week:

8-1 +6.91 units

Season to date:

34-24 +9.21 units

Getting down early on:

Virginia Tech -12.5 West Virginia

Some will argue that West Virginia are "giant killers", and this is also a home game. Virginia Tech has also not played any quality opposition. But WVA has only beated E Carolina and Rutgers, and has not scored more than 20 points this year except against those two teams. They are facing a much stronger V Tech defense and will be lucky to score period. WVA did play Miami tough, but I think that has more to do with Miami's tendency to play down to the level of their opposition this year. V Tech has played a weak schedule, but has outscored every opponent by more than 20 except one (Texas A&M by 16) Only problem is that Virginia Tech may be looking ahead to next week's matchup vs. Miami. However, raw talent alone should get them through this one quite easily. This line is already at 13 at most places and will be over 14 by game time, at least at some square books.

Penn State +11 Iowa St

Penn State has looked horrible but coming off a bye week should allow them to get themselves together. Some young player have been making an impact and JoePa should be ready to let them shine. PSU has played tight games against tough opposition this year (lost by 8 at nebraska, 6 vs Minnesota, 7 vs. Wisconsin). Last time out they lost by 14 at Purdue, their biggest loss of the season. Iowa, while starting good has struggles in Big 10 play (losses to Mich St and Ohio St, won by 3 vs Michigan). Have to wonder how the tough loss to Ohio St last week, putting them at 1-2 in conference, will affect them mentally. I look for Penn State to keep it close and in worst case pull out a backdoor cover.
 

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Adding:

Louisville -16.5 Eastern Carolina

ECU is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation, and Louisville can put points up quick. ECU has only been within 17 of three of their opponents so far (win vs Army, lost by 11 to UNC, lost by 14 to Houston) and all of those teams are far from powerhouses. Louisville hasn't been consistent but they have the talent to light this ECU squad up and this line just seems like a gift.
 

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Clemson -13.5 North Carolina

Not sure what I'm missing here, but this line seems way too low. UNC did keep it close against Arizona St last week, but their only win of the year is ECU (by 9 points). Now they are facing a tough Clemson squad on the road. UNC will not be able to stop Clemson from scoring (Biggest mismatch is Clemson receivers vs UNC secondary), so I expect Clemson to win a shootout.
 

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Georgia Tech +3 Maryland

This line is starting to pop up as square shops and local books. G Tech has been inconsistent, but has had flashes of brilliance. At home, +3, in conference is too much to pass up.
 

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Added this to the wrong thread yesterday:
icon_rolleyes.gif



Kansas +21 Kansas St

I've been waiting all week to grab this one at 21. This Jayhawks team is much improved and has confidence this year. Kansas St can put up the points, but their defense has come down a notch since last year, and Kansas can put up some points of their own. Three TDs is a lot to give to Kansas and I will take the points.
 

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Baylor +33 Texas

Texas has not been as impressive this year, playing on the road to a interstate rival. 33 is a lot and I will go for a backdoor cover. Rumors are flying about Cedric Benson, and although I'm not taking them as fact yet, could be an important component of this game.

Connecticut -8 Akron

Connecticut was the hot team at the beginnning of the year. This line opened at 11 and shot down to 8. Not sure why, but I was looking for Connecticut less than 10, so I'll take it.
 

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Adding a few for afternoon games:

Wake Forest +21 Florida St

Tennessee -2.5 Alabama

Texas A&M +7 Oklahoma st

Bowling Green -3.5 N Illinois

good luck!
 

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After going 8-1 last week, I had an absolutely horrible week this time around. On the wrong side of a bunch of real close games and ended up giving back all my profit for the year so far. Luckily NFL and baseball are aroung to keep me from getting totally killed overall. Recap:

Virginia Tech -12.5 West Virginia LOSE
Penn State +11 Iowa St LOSE
Louisville -16.5 Eastern Carolina LOSE
Clemson -13.5 North Carolina LOSE
Georgia Tech +3 Maryland WIN
Kansas +21 Kansas St LOSE
Baylor +33 Texas LOSE
Connecticut -8 Akron LOSE
Wake Forest +21 Florida St LOSE
Tennessee -2.5 Alabama WIN
Texas A&M +7 Oklahoma st LOSE
Bowling Green -3.5 N Illinois WIN
Arkansas pk LOSE
Auburn +3 LOSE

This week:

3-11 -9.1 units
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Season to date:

37-35 +0.11 units
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