drunken CFB Week 3

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last week 2-1 +.9 units

To date: 5-4 +1.6 units

For this week:

Nebraska -9.5 Penn St (2 units)

PSU has shown no spark whatsoever this year. Should have lost to Temple. Got destroyed by BC. Biggest weakness is linemen on both sides of the ball. Best performance last week was from the punter, who may be suspended this week due to fight (see my post in RR). Other unnamed players may not play as well. Would not want to start an inexperienced punter in a hostile Nebraska stadium under this kind of pressure.

Nebraska was able to take down Oklahoma St and is an improved squad over last year. They also have major revenge, being squarely beat by PSU 40-7 last year in Happy Valley. They have been looking forward to this game and will be on top of things.

I see a huge rout here, 35-3 nebraska



Connecticut +4.5 BC (2 units)
Connecticut +170

Connecticut was one of the sharp capper's "watch" teams this year and they have not disappointed. They have not been totally impressive, but should be picking up momentum.

BC lost to Wake 2 weeks ago, and did beat PSU 27-14 last week in Beaver Stadium, but that win was less due to impressive play by BC than very poor performance and lots of mistakes by the Nittany Lions.

Connnecticut plays balls-to-the-wall football this week in front of a rabid home crowd and pulls out a squeaker, winning by a FG.


NC State +11 Ohio St (2 units)

I locked this in weeks ago. I usually try not to post unavailable lines and past bet lines, but I think the line should open higher here, so I will count it.

Honestly, I am not as strong on this play right now, with Rivers not as impressive as I would have thought, and the Clarett situation seeming to have little impact on OSU. However, a double digit line between these two teams offers too much value to not take the points.
 

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adding:

Auburn -12 Vanderbilt (2 units)

Yes, Auburn has looked like total crap lately, but against better opposition. They were considered a national title contender just 2 weeks ago and totally fell off the horse. This game against a weak Vandy team should allow them to pull it together, and they will be looking to run up the score. Only question mark is...have they given up on the season already? Also, everyone knows auburn sucks, and the line is reflecting this. A lot of value on Auburn in this one, just because everyone is afraid to take them.
 

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couple one unit adds. Still waiting for some other lines to move to where I like them

Texas -13 Arkansas

Alabama -13.5 Kentucky

Miami OH -2.5 NOrthwestern
 

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I like your Auburn play.

"How could a team that has only scored 3 points in 2 games be favored by 12?"


I also like you MiamiO play, you have a nicer number then I got but hopefully it won't matter.

GL
 

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didn't there used to be a message asking how Auburn can score in this thread?

After early games:

NC State wins 2 units
Connecticut loses 3.2 units
Auburn wins 2 units
Miami OH wins 1
Texas loses 1.1

So, 3-2 +0.7 units

on deck:
Nebraska
Alabama

will probably add a few later
 

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adding:

Miami FL/ECU under 60.5

I don't see how ECU can even score once against Miami. They may be able to get a FG somewhere. The only question is: Will Miami score more than 57 points? That's 8 TDs, or 2 per quarter. After last week's near loss, Miami might let down a bit, and when they go up 28-0 against ECU, they will bring the intensity down a bit. Think the under is a good play here.

Also: line is moving down, indicating a lot of "under" action. Gotta be sharp action, as your average square would never play an under with Miami. Pinnacle also has the lowest line (was at 59.5 last night when others were still at 61), so it looks like they like the under also.
 

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Recap of this week:

Nebraska -9.5 Penn St (2 units) LOSE -2.2
Connecticut +4.5 BC (2 units) LOSE -2.2
Connecticut +170 LOSE -1
NC State +11 Ohio St (2 units) WIN +2
Auburn -12 Vanderbilt (2 units) WIN +2
Texas -13 Arkansas LOSE -1.1
Alabama -13.5 Kentucky LOSE -1.1
Miami OH -2.5 NOrthwestern WIN +1
Miami FL/ECU under 60.5 WIN +1

Tough week. The Nebraska game really hurt.

This week
4-5 -1.6 units

Overall

9-9 dead even +0.0 units
 

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