DRF Race Of The Week - The Arkansas Derby (Grade II) - On ESPN2

[oldmanTED]

This Saturday, Oaklawn Park presents The Arkansas Derby (Grade II) for 3 year olds at a mile and one eighth on the dirt for a purse of $1,000,000. A field of 10 is currently scheduled to go to the post at 6:41 p.m. EDT. The race will be televised nationally on ESPN2 starting at 6:00 p.m. EDT. The post positions, morning line odds and past performance link are shown below. This is an open thread for anyone that wants to contribute, post a play, whatever. Best of luck.

OAKLAWN PARK

Saturday, April 11, 2009

11th (5:41)

Arkansas Derby (G2)
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
<TABLE class=tjctable summary=Results><TBODY><TR><TH scope=col>Prg. #</TH><TH scope=col>PP</TH><TH scope=col>Horse</TH><TH scope=col>Jockey</TH><TH scope=col>Trainer</TH><TH scope=col>Wt.</TH><TH scope=col>Claim $</TH><TH scope=col>Equip.</TH><TH scope=col>Med.</TH><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" scope=col>ML</TH></TR><TR class=""><TD>1 </TD><TD>1</TD><TD>Captain Cherokee</TD><TD>Gryder A T</TD><TD>Asmussen Steven M</TD><TD>118</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">20-1</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>2 </TD><TD>2</TD><TD>Papa Clem</TD><TD>Bejarano R</TD><TD>Stute Gary</TD><TD>118</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">6-1</TD></TR><TR class=""><TD>3 </TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Flat Out</TD><TD>Garcia J A</TD><TD>Dickey Charles L</TD><TD>122</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">10-1</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>4 </TD><TD>4</TD><TD>Poltergeist</TD><TD>Hamilton Q</TD><TD>Von Hemel Donnie K</TD><TD>118</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">20-1</TD></TR><TR class=""><TD>5 </TD><TD>5</TD><TD>Ziegfeld</TD><TD>Court J K</TD><TD>Romans Dale</TD><TD>118</TD><TD></TD><TD>Blk-On</TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">12-1</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>6 </TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Flying Private</TD><TD>Ocampo I</TD><TD>Lukas D Wayne</TD><TD>118</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">6-1</TD></TR><TR class=""><TD>7 </TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Summer Bird</TD><TD>Rosier C R</TD><TD>Ice Tim A</TD><TD>118</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">30-1</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>8 </TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Old Fashioned</TD><TD>Thompson T J</TD><TD>Jones J Larry</TD><TD>122</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">9-5</TD></TR><TR class=""><TD>9 </TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Win Willy</TD><TD>Berry M C</TD><TD>Robertson McLean</TD><TD>122</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">7-2</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>10 </TD><TD>10</TD><TD>Danger to Society</TD><TD>Velasquez C</TD><TD>Dutrow, Jr. R E</TD><TD>118</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">6-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Past Performances

http://www.drf.com/formulator-web/f...ning=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11

 

[trytrytry]

3 Flat Out Garcia J A Dickey Charles L 122 L 10-1 win


and exacta 3 over 8 9

 

[joeyp]

cold exacta 8 with 4-9

 

[Bobbflo]

2 dollar tri box, 2 dollar ex box 2-3-7-8

 

[GMS325]

Old Fashioned should bounce back today. I like him over Papa Clem, Danger to Society and Win Willy.

 

[OJS#32buff]

#8 Old Fashioned WIN TRI 8/2 6 9 10

 

[Gravy]

#8 Old Fashion is my top rated horse but going for some prices:

#2 Papa Clem & #5 Ziegfeld Win & Place




$1 Tri Wheel


2,5,8/2,5,8,9/2,5,8,9,10


BOL to everybody today

 

[oldmanTED]

Race Update

Track Condition: Fast
Jockey Changes: None
Scratches: None

 

[BillyKidd]

Breeding numbers suggest that Old Fashioned and Win Willy do not have the breeding to go a classic distance in graded company. Does not mean they can't win at 1 1/8m but usually struggle to win over a mile in graded company. If you want to learn more about breeding check out chef-de-race.com An excellent site to study breeding in horses.

 

[BillyKidd]

Arkansas Derby

The best 3 horses to me are Papa Clem, Flying Private, and Old Fashioned. I really like Papa Clem, he ran 2nd to Pioneer of the Nile by 1/2 length. Pioneer of the Nile just won the SA Derby. The problem is he is lead speed and I think Old Fashioned will run with him on the front, possibly burning both out. If Papa Clem is Ken Derby caliber he will hold on and win. If not, I see Flying Private passing both in the stretch. I pick
1. Flying Private
2. Papa Clem
3. Old Fashioned
A long shot to watch is Danger to Society. Connections scratched from the Fla Derby to run here and try to get enough earnings to qualify for Ken Derby. Good luck to everyone and especially OMT for giving the PP's site. Besides he's older than cool-aid and deserves good luck.

 

[oldmanTED]

Thanks Billy.

Race appears to be set up for an honest pace up front with Papa Clem and Old Fashioned likely to be the pace setters. Most likely the latter will be at the front with the former stalking closely. Don't expect the pace to be suicidal, so these two may well stay in front all the way into deep stretch. However, Win Willy, winner of the Rebel (Grade II) swept 4 wide to win going away, but the pace in front of him was suicidal which helped his cause tremendously and today's pace will likely be more honest and controlled. Really feel these three stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field and the race sets up nicely for all three. Plus, each has been working nicely over the track so looking at exotics in this one.

#2 Papa Clem/#8 Old Fashioned/#9 Win Willy (Exacta Box)
#2 Papa Clem/#8 Old Fashioned/#9 Win Willy (Trifecta Box)

 

[BillyKidd]

Bet 20w 20p on Uno Mas #1a in the 9th at Oaklawn.
Bet 20w 20p on Hold Me Back in the Bluegrass.

I agree with everything OMT says except I think Win Willy was a fluke in the last race and will not repeat. Flying Private ran 2nd to Hold Me Back in last race and can contend, I hope.

 

[BillyKidd]

Uno Mas bet down to even odds. so I added 20w for total 40w20p

 

[ATP]

missed badly in bluegrass, go a lil less here, 8.10/8,10/All triple nd small win bet on 10 for arkansas derby

 

[BillyKidd]

shouldn't have added extra 20w on uno mas. Finished fast closing 2nd. On to the Arkansas Derby.

 

[realfire]

I got 100 bucks on the 7 summerbird m/l 30/1

show money

 

[HPark1]

Went with Win Willy to win.

 

[BillyKidd]

Did something that I never do. Bet 2 horses.
50w50s Papa Clem
30w30s Flying Private
5 ex box 2/6/8
good luck everyone!

 

[v3candyman]

I got 100 bucks on the 7 summerbird m/l 30/1

show money

Nice show bet!:toast:

 

[v3candyman]

Did something that I never do. Bet 2 horses.
50w50s Papa Clem
30w30s Flying Private
5 ex box 2/6/8
good luck everyone!

Nice win on Papa:toast: