Taken from Dr. Bob's website.
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Monday,July 28
College Best Bets 470-336-17 (58%) on a Star Basis Since 2004!!
2008 Season Subscriptions Now Available!
For those that are new to Dr Bob Sports, I recommend reading the following pages, which include my Sports Betting as an Investment article, an essay on my handicapping methods and sample analysis.
Sports Betting as an Investment Article
Sample College Analysis
Sample NFL Analysis
My Handicapping Methods
2007 College Results
I finished the 2007 season at a very poor 32-42-1 on my College Best Bets and 78-111-3 on a Star Basis for the season. My analysis obviously wasn't as good as it has been in recent years, but it wasn't as bad as my record would indicate either (
College Best Bet Season Recap). I used the same methods last season that I used in winning 64% of my College Best Bets the previous 3 years, 59% the previous 9 years and 57% over the previous 20 years, but there are always going to be bad years regardless of how well my math model and situational analysis works in the long run.
It was just one of those strange years in which I lost a lot of games when I've been on the right side and didn't have many lucky wins. I spent some time doing a
College Best Bet Season Recap to make sure I wasn't just conveniently forgetting about some lucky wins I may have had earlier in the year. I also wanted to see if my handicapping was simply way off this past year. What I found is what I suspected - that my handicapping wasn't been nearly as bad as my record. I urge you all to read the recap to see what I'm talking about. I'm not making excuses for why I had a losing season because losing seasons happen (2007 was my 5th in 21 years), but rather explaining why losing seasons happen even when the analysis is pretty good. I've also had seasons when my record was better than it should have been, like my 74% season in 2005 (I would have been 66% without the good luck that was on my side that year).
I know a lot of you were new to my service last year and may be doubting my handicapping, but
people doubted me after a losing season in 2003 and those people that quit my service after that season missed out on my 58.3% winners on College Best Bets in 4 years since then (470-336-17 on a Star Basis), which includes my horrible 2007 season (see the season results chart below). There have been rumors that the oddsmakers have caught up to my sophisticated math models and that last season’s struggles were the result, but that is simply not the case.
My College Football math model was 85-57-3 ATS (60%) in 2007 when the difference between my math prediction and the pointspread was 6 points or more, which is very close to the 61% record on those games in 2006 and the 62% record in 2005. The college situational analysis in 2007 (50.3%) certainly wasn’t as good as normal (54.8% over the years), but that doesn’t explain how my Best Bet record was so poor considering how well the math model continues to work. Overall, my analysis on all College Football games was pretty good in 2007, but the games that I selected as Best Bets were not, which is simply a case of negative variance rather than my methods no longer working – which is a good sign going into this season.
The stock market has down years too but, like my service, stocks have a long term history of being profitable
and one down year in the stock market doesn't mean that stocks are no longer a good investment going forward. Unfortunately, a lot of gamblers don't have a long term perspective. I am grateful that most of my clients are intelligent, analytical people that understand long term success is the goal and that variability is a part of all good investments. Thankfully, I've never had consecutive losing seasons in football over my 21 years and hopefully my pattern of bouncing back with a very good year following my 4 previous losing seasons will continue this year.
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