DPR and PRD lets track it

[justanobserver]

Current Defensive Passer Rating:

Rank	Team	2015	ATSR
1	Arizona	58.6	3-0
2	Denver	59	3-0
3	Carolina	66.3	2-1
4	NY Jets	66.5	2-1
5	Buffalo	78.1	2-1
6	Green Bay	79.2	3-0
7	Dallas	81.7	1-2
8	Philadelphia	81.7	1-2
9	Houston	85.4	1-2
10	Minnesota	85.4	2-1
11	Tennessee	85.5	2-1
12	San Diego	87.6	1-2
13	NY Giants	90	2-1
14	New England	90.2	2-0-1
15	Atlanta	90.4	3-0
16	Baltimore	92.8	0-3
17	St Louis	94	1-2
18	Cincinnati	94.7	3-0
19	Indianapolis	95.1	0-3
20	Washington	96.3	1-2
21	Oakland	98.9	2-1
22	Tampa Bay	100.3	1-2
23	Miami	101.8	1-2
24	Kansas City	101.9	1-2
25	Jacksonville	102.2	0-3
26	Cleveland	102.9	1-2
27	Seattle	104.3	1-2
28	Detroit	106.7	0-3
29	Pittsburgh	108.8	2-1
30	San Francisco	111.6	1-2
31	New Orleans	119.6	1-2
32	Chicago	123.8	0-3

 

[justanobserver]

PRD Week 4:

Home	DPR	Away	DPR	Differential
Arizona	58.6	St Louis	94	35.4
Miami	101.8	NY Jets	66.5	35.3
Tampa Bay	100.3	Carolina	66.3	34
San Francisco	111.6	Green Bay	79.2	32.4
Denver	59	Minnesota	85.4	26.4
Chicago	123.8	Oakland	98.9	24.9
Pittsburgh	108.8	Baltimore	92.8	16
San Diego	87.6	Cleveland	102.9	15.3
Washington	96.3	Philadelphia	81.7	14.6
Buffalo	78.1	NY Giants	90	11.9
Cincinnati	94.7	Kansas City	101.9	7.2
Atlanta	90.4	Houston	85.4	5
Seattle	104.3	Detroit	106.7	2.4

 

[thenatti]

Good information and definitely intrigued! Need to figure out how we correlate the differential to the spread and expected outcome....

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Hold up a minute.... I'm gonna help you get this started the proper way. Don't get me wrong. The way that you are doing it does have good data but that's not PRD.

I just just pulled over from the freeway so I'm going to type fast. You are making me late for an appointment but this is more important so I'm gonna give it a few minutes.

By doing like you posted, all that you are doing is comparing team A to team B's DPR only. That doesn't really compare the two verses each other because each DPR does not face each other in the field. You can have an excellent DPR and a horrible OPR which would make your approach not so good if you do not paint the whole picture. It's still a good observation for a defensive view only.

PRD is is one team only and includes both DPR and OPR.

example:

Team A :
OPR 100
DPR 65

PRD= +35. (Very nice)

Team B :
OPR 75
DPR 90

PRD= -15 ( very poor)
* you won't see this match up under 3' too often but when you do, you know what to do.


That woukd give team A a +50


Keep it simple like that to get started and then I'll show you how to take it to a higher level.


gotta get to work now.... Good luck .... Have fun and a big huge piece of advice is do it by hand on paper every week and I promise you that you will be 100 x's better at seeing what's truly going on. A spreadsheet is nice but don't let it make you lazy to save time. You did not set out to save time. You set out to get a better understanding of a different view of the game. You just get soooooo much more when you see it by hand each and every week. It only takes about 2-3 hours for all 32 teams each week.

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

I'll contribute more tonight when I get home.

Now when you do this and then go back and look at my numbers that I posted last night, don't think my numbers are wrong. They are correct. I just use a different formula to calculate DPR and OPR. The formulas that you are going to use are what the world uses and that formula has been used since 1970. It measures everything from when the ball is released from the QB's hand only. That's good though !!!
My numbers are just a little different and still paint the entire picture but more. So don't get confused if you compare your PRD's to mine. Once you get it up and running using the conventional method, I'll help you jack it up to the next level.

sorry to be so long winded, I just want you to get it right from the start if you are going to dedicate the time and share your work.

 

[dealiak]

Very interesting. I do something along these lines as well when developing my line each week. But use yardages and 3rd conversion percentages. How do your numbers translate to 'line' points? also what does PRD mean?

 

[dealiak]

I do something like this as well when I develop my line; but am very interested in reading your higher level ideas.

 

[justanobserver]

Queen sparked this idea last night and I am just going to do the tracking of it, I expect we will find some sort of trend when it comes to ATS and the sort, to counterbalance this we will likely need to include some type of rush efficiency and defensive ruush efficiency ratings, but for now we take baby steps.I am going to be swamped the next two days but i will do some more stuff after that.

 

[jgm4661]

You have to adjust those #s for strength of schedule too or it wont be accurate. ARI for ex has beat up on weaklings like NO, SF and CHI which explains in part their DPR of 58.6.

STL has faced SEA and PIT which explains their DPR of 94. So the PRD differential is over stated.

 

[justanobserver]

Most definitely, my company is moving offices and being the IT guy i have to do almost everything so this formula isn't fully evolved yet. By Sunday we will have a lot more data to work with.

 

[justanobserver]

Here is the data QOH wazs talking about, starrting now we are going to track ATS W/L on this differential and by how many points, should be interesting.

Home	PRD	Away	PRD	PRD Differential
San Francisco	-40.48	Green Bay	56.2	96.68
Arizona	59.15	St Louis	-23.26	82.41
Chicago	-54.59	Oakland	0.57	55.16
New Orleans	-34.18	Dallas	19.76	53.94
Tampa Bay	-22.37	Carolina	20.14	42.51
Cincinnati	26.28	Kansas City	-15.48	41.76
Denver	25.24	Minnesota	-5.35	30.59
Buffalo	37.93	NY Giants	7.89	30.04
San Diego	16.75	Cleveland	-12.96	29.71
Miami	-16.33	NY Jets	11.97	28.3
Seattle	-1.49	Detroit	-28.03	26.54
Atlanta	8.2	Houston	-14.83	23.03
Pittsburgh	3.39	Baltimore	-10.59	13.98
Washington	-14.93	Philadelphia	-9.22	5.71

 

[justanobserver]

You have to adjust those #s for strength of schedule too or it wont be accurate. ARI for ex has beat up on weaklings like NO, SF and CHI which explains in part their DPR of 58.6.

STL has faced SEA and PIT which explains their DPR of 94. So the PRD differential is over stated.

To your first point, i kind of think it adjusts itself, its like creating a power rating, the bigger differential the more confidence.

 

[jgm4661]

To your first point, i kind of think it adjusts itself, its like creating a power rating, the bigger differential the more confidence.

Just saying you can't just take the DPR #s or any stat for that matter with out adjusting for strength of schedule so far in 2015 or it will yield incorrect results. ARI's DPR is 58 because they had a soft schedule so far. Last year the same D more or less had a DPR of 85 for example.

 

[justanobserver]

Well this was a terrible week for this test PRD Differential

SU: 8-6 ATS: 5-8-1

It's early and we will continue to track, I am going to analyze to see what factors caused the losses, possibly turnover differential, rush defense/offense efficiency, many other factors.

 

[3pointdog]

thanks maybe show the opr vs the dpr...? on each game both ways

 

[justanobserver]

thanks maybe show the opr vs the dpr...? on each game both ways

I am adding that to the spreadsheet now, feel like that may help to predict O/U also.

 

[justanobserver]

Home	PRD	Away	PRD	PRD Differential
Detroit	-30.83	Arizona	34.07	64.9
Green Bay	51.27	St Louis	-5.28	56.55
NY Giants	8	San Francisco	-40.57	48.57
Atlanta	15.27	Washington	-17.66	32.93
Philadelphia	-2.22	New Orleans	-21.81	19.59
Dallas	10.62	New England	29.47	18.85
Kansas City	-17.3	Chicago	-36.14	18.84
Cincinnati	28.15	Seattle	13.15	15
Oakland	-0.15	Denver	12.86	13.01
Tampa Bay	-28.6	Jacksonville	-19.07	9.53
Baltimore	-12.88	Cleveland	-8.5	4.38
San Diego	9.47	Pittsburgh	8.26	1.21
Tennessee	23.65	Buffalo	23.84	0.19
Houston	-18.58	Indianapolis	-18.58	0

 

[justanobserver]

One thing i was working on last night was using these numbers to predict totals, i think the best way to do that is to combine the two teams OPR and DPR, obviously if those numbers are higher that would tend to mean that the two offenses would be poised for big games or the two defenses would be poised for giving up lots of points, a couple of games stood out.

Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total
Cincinnati	123.02	94.87	28.16	Seattle	105.18	92.03	13.15	228.2	186.9
New England	119.63	90.16	29.47	Dallas	103.29	92.67	10.63	222.92	182.83
San Diego	107.87	98.4	9.47	Pittsburgh	108.63	100.37	8.26	216.5	198.77
Green Bay	125.9	74.63	51.26	St. Louis	89.24	94.52	- 5.28	215.14	169.15
Buffalo	104.44	80.6	23.85	Tennessee	109.17	85.52	23.65	213.61	166.12
Arizona	106.41	72.34	34.06	Detroit	79.72	110.55	- 30.83	186.13	182.89
Atlanta	101.21	85.94	15.27	Washington	84.46	102.12	- 17.65	185.67	188.06
Cleveland	98.8	107.3	- 8.50	Baltimore	80.44	93.32	- 12.87	179.24	200.62
Denver	80.76	67.9	12.86	Oakland	96.35	96.5	- 0.16	177.11	164.4
Philadelphia	82.2	84.42	- 2.23	New Orleans	94.48	116.29	- 21.81	176.68	200.71
Kansas City	89.2	106.5	- 17.29	Chicago	75.98	112.12	- 36.14	165.18	218.62
N.Y. Giants	96.37	88.37	8	San Francisco	67.71	108.28	- 40.57	164.08	196.65
Jacksonville	78.9	97.97	- 19.07	Tampa Bay	71.16	99.76	- 28.60	150.06	197.73

 

[justanobserver]

First off is the Chicago/KC game, the biggest DPR combined total on the card with Cutler back in the saddle for Chicago, i see a big total there.

Next is SD/Pitt, they have the highest overall combined total which means we are in for points and i'm already all over this total for other reasons, just more assurance.

The top two are the next best overall combined totals, i like the overs on both of these also.

 

[Serbone]

Be careful at least about two things:
1) some of these figures include stats for back up QB's, so it is significant (Dallas, Chicago, also to some extent NO, Oak, Pitt, Cleve.)
2) team SOS (example today AZ is 31, Detroit 4.....SL 5, GB 25); last week AZ's weak schedule was exposed by the Rams despite a superior PRD, AZ failed