DOW headed under 12,000 today

[Dawoofdaddy]

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RX Local



Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 63,468


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<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by WVU
stop scaring me. How much do you think that house should be worth now?
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Around 245,000..........which is still double it's value of only 10-11 years earlier and still overvalued in my opinion.

As stated, this correction needed and the credit mess situation states to me we are going nowhere but considerably lower(15+%)........then I think we are going to look at some stablizaion in prices for no less than 3 years.
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245k? Post the truth about what you actually think fishhead instead of this sugar-coated bs.

Whatever the monthly rent (collectable) is for the property, multiply that by 100 and thats a rough estimate. Maybe a bit higher in Florida, but not much higher. If you cant rent that house for close to 2500 a month, its probably not worth 245k imo.

Where is sean1? He was another south Florida real estate bull here, but even he was more realistic than wvu.

Wvu, do you actually believe home prices cannot fall another 15% from current levels?

I still predict commercial real estate will tank more than residential homes.

:cripwalk:

 

[WVU]

"Wvu, do you actually believe home prices cannot fall another 15% from current levels?"

Yes they can. And in the short run they probably will in some areas. 100 x what you can get for rent? So a house that rents for $1000 is only worth 100k in your opinion? If that was the case then no one will rent. 200x the rent you can get is much more reasonable, even in tough times.

 

[WVU]

Some things to consider here as well. They are building less houses than in previous years. But still more people are moving into this country than moving out. Eventually the housing surplus will get taken by those who need homes

 

[Fishhead]

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RX Local



Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 63,468



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<HR style="COLOR: rgb(253,222,130)" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY><TR> <TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset"> Originally Posted by WVU
stop scaring me. How much do you think that house should be worth now?

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Around 245,000..........which is still double it's value of only 10-11 years earlier and still overvalued in my opinion.

As stated, this correction needed and the credit mess situation states to me we are going nowhere but considerably lower(15+%)........then I think we are going to look at some stablizaion in prices for no less than 3 years.
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245k? Post the truth about what you actually think fishhead instead of this sugar-coated bs.

Whatever the monthly rent (collectable) is for the property, multiply that by 100 and thats a rough estimate. Maybe a bit higher in Florida, but not much higher. If you cant rent that house for close to 2500 a month, its probably not worth 245k imo.

Where is sean1? He was another south Florida real estate bull here, but even he was more realistic than wvu.

Wvu, do you actually believe home prices cannot fall another 15% from current levels?

I still predict commercial real estate will tank more than residential homes.

:cripwalk:

LOL.......was attempting to be somewhat sympathetic to some homeowners........or pathetic.

By the way, this was a property in Vegas.

 

[Fishhead]

Some things to consider here as well. They are building less houses than in previous years. But still more people are moving into this country than moving out. Eventually the housing surplus will get taken by those who need homes

Of course, but this is a long time away, available homes for sale have been steadily increasing for quite a few months.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Some things to consider here as well. They are building less houses than in previous years. But still more people are moving into this country than moving out. Eventually the housing surplus will get taken by those who need homes

Point taken.

However, subtract a reasonable % of second homes and commercial property that will no longer be needed with a decreasing consumer economy, and thats my rebuttal to your decreased supply argument.

Can also subtract a % of empty nesters that will no longer be able to afford such living conditions.

How many apartments would be empty if only 10% of empty nesters added a roommate to reduce their living expenses?

Real estate market here until otherwise noted = trainwreck.

However, I expect to continue reading about the # of great bargains out there the entire time its heading lower.

Also, expect to continue reading how much people made (note the past tense).

When is the last time someone attended a mortgage burning party?

We will see those again instead of the ignorant atm machine mentality people came to expect as the norm regarding their primary residence.

 

[WVU]

Dawoof, please don't think i am bashing you because i am not. I think we all agree you seem to have a pretty good handle on what is happening.

One question though. If you had to guess right now, how low do you think the median price for a single family home in Florida will drop to even if it is 10 years from now? In today's dollars

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

wvu, I know that and it isnt going to change my opinion near term about real estate regardless if im bashed.

I just dont see how or why people can be optimistic this soon after the real estate bubble has finally started crashing.

Id like to know how much rent that 700k condo in lauderdale mentioned a few posts ago would fetch during this economy.

Will anybody here confirm if the 12 year supply of homes in Sarasota, Florida is correct?

I am shocked at the amount of real estate thats been built starting in Sarasota south to Marco Island the past several years.

Bargains on the way for sure someday, but imo we are still quite a ways from the bottom.

Prices will fall to something close to the 100x monthly rent equation and during the bottom, they will sell for less than that, hence a true bargain.

There are still places where homes are selling less than 100x monthly rent.

 

[WVU]

Please post a number for your guess of the lowest median housing price in Florida. Here is a good chart that is not up to date.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

What does the y axis (left vertical line) represent?

Average price in 1k?

They will in real terms fall until the rental income is something close to what I mentioned earlier and at the absolute bottom will likely fall below even those levels.

 

[WVU]

yes the left axis is in 1000s. 100x rent is pretty vague. I was hoping for a better prediction

 

[Fishhead]

Remember this folks, with tighter lending standards, it is harder to get a loan than it has been in the last 10 years.........reducing the level of potential homebuyers.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

If fishhead (a diehard value searcher) actually buys a home or condo, that will be a better signal the bottom is in the rearview mirror than anything Im able to post here.

Good point fish.

Id like to also add: interest rates are still historically low and higher rates arent going to help increase home prices. The fed may cut for a while still, but eventually rates will again rise.

 

[Fishhead]

I'm outta here for a few......

In the meantime, tune into CNBC, as they are showing the Countrywide hearing/committe meeting with CEO of CW..........very interesting and educating.

 

[WVU]

interest rates have been steadily rising for 6 weeks now

 

[X-Files]

Find it ironic that more posters here are tuned into viewing the Rubber Room rather than the financial forum..............:think2:..............which idicates more here are interested in drama than making money and educating themselves.

I'd suggest there is a lot of humour there to relieve the stress associated
with serious gambling. Even the dramas of others will help in this regard
as it gets one's mind off of their own problems. Better than too much
of this :drink:

In general reading and studying financial info can seem like work while
the RR feels more like R & R.

 

[FairWarning]

the good news is crude oil may NOT make it to 110.00 per barrell until NEXT week.....

Pump prices went up .30 in Michigan today, now 3.35/gallon.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Fishhead and WVU, have you guys looked at Washington Mutual stock this week?

Being taken behind the woodshed again today.

:hidding:

 

[WVU]

Fishhead and WVU, have you guys looked at Washington Mutual stock this week?

Being taken behind the woodshed again today.

:hidding:

I can give some background on what is happening with a lot of Mortgage related stocks. These finance companies are used to buying mortgages and immediately selling them back for a profit. Well what is happening now is they are getting backlogged. The Mortgages that they are buying are being refused when attempting to sell them back because they no longer qualify for the dollar amount based on the stricter credit standards. So they are getting stuck servicing their own purchases which was never their intention. They are not equipped for this and they are losing money fast.

Finance companies are now frantically cutting jobs in the mortgage sectors and adding jobs in the servicing sector.

 

[MIMS]

Rough day