Dow at 17,000. What's more likely to happen first: it drops to 15,000 or continues to 20,000?

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It's been a heckuva run. During this run, I've read countless articles predicting the market to fall or burst in a dramatic way but it hasnt happened. So what will happen first:Dow decreases to 15,000OrDow increases to 20,000
 

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I believe it will increase to 20k & then we may see a decrease........i remember when I was 16 & my father was talking to someone about black Monday, back in 1987 when the market too a serious dump in one day. Black Monday was the biggest dump for 1 day ever I believe -22.6% of entire market (508 points)

Will we see another day like this? Yes we will & it could be worse. People really don't understand what moves the market & I have a few ideas but it all boils down to big players with billions of dollars at their disposal that bump & dump stocks & the market to their liking

Everyone else is along for the ride & if you get lucky to get in at the right time, you too can become a millionaire. Best time to get in is about a year after a crash........gotta let the waters settle.

Of course everyone has an opinio on this & it will differ with mine.
 

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I believe it will increase to 20k & then we may see a decrease........i remember when I was 16 & my father was talking to someone about black Monday, back in 1987 when the market too a serious dump in one day. Black Monday was the biggest dump for 1 day ever I believe -22.6% of entire market (508 points)

Will we see another day like this? Yes we will & it could be worse. People really don't understand what moves the market & I have a few ideas but it all boils down to big players with billions of dollars at their disposal that bump & dump stocks & the market to their liking

Everyone else is along for the ride & if you get lucky to get in at the right time, you too can become a millionaire. Best time to get in is about a year after a crash........gotta let the waters settle.

Of course everyone has an opinio on this & it will differ with mine.

I hope to god we dont see another day like that.

I do believe it will continue to progress up.. as long as the pace doesnt become alarmingly fast we should be fine.

-murph
 

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Although I do think the market will continue to rise, the bubble could burst anytime & I'm thinking my stocks in Reynolds tobacco has hit its peak........I should have sold at $61 or $62 but its down to $57.40 & tthanks to the 24 billion dollar lawsuit it lost & the sell off of blu e-cig along with 3 other brands of regular cigs needed to be done after buying Lorillard, the stock has taken a $6 dump.

But I read an article the stock will split this year(waiting patiently) & the other thing that ois stopping me from.selling is the dividend it pays. Also, the capital tax gains you pay when you dump the stock hurts as well unless you have millions of dollars worth of the stock.

I wish I had invested in bitcoins last Jan :) for a quick score after 11 months.......

Anyone have any big stocks like Netflix? I was told to by it a few years ago but didn't.......kicking myself for that one, $90 in 2012 & now sits at $428........& it lost $25 past 2 days.....
 

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How about the tech boom era that crashed on March 11, 2,000......

Some stocks that were insanely high & remember watching the TV & saying to friends & family at Christmas time that the stock market would crash, especially the tech stocks & the ridiculous run they were having.......

Apple stock went from $7 a share to $403 in 8 years.......Amazon & a lot of other stocks were off the charts as well.......if I had any of those stocks, I would have bailed at Christmas, 3 months before the crash.

I do think something big is coming in the form of an economic collapse of the sort by 2016.......I really hope I'm wrong!
 

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S&P will reach 2150 by mid Dec. we will then see an orderly decline to about 1600 by mid 2015 before a sustained rally starts again

USD will continue to erode to 1.8 gbp and 1.5 euros by year's end

Gold will be steady in the USD 1300 to 1400 trading range by Dec 31
 

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i think 15k....i think a correction is coming.
 

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I will eat a SHIT sandwich with no bread if the dow hits 20.... no Fukn way... market will correct itself in the coming years
 

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LoL@ Tate.......mustard or ketchup with it?

Lol......you're probably right tho, I'm just more optimistic but I'm also confident that we will see an economic collapse if it doesn't reach 20k
 

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The easiest answer to this most complicated question is. Where is the money coming from to push it to 20.. as we All Would agree our economy has jumped back 15 years.. I don't have the figures in front of me but I'm quite sure we've lost a minimum 30% of middle upper class that's been relegated to lower class incomes...
Soooo who's investing???
The Americans themselves CAN NOT PUSH it to 20.
 

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The easiest answer to this most complicated question is. Where is the money coming from to push it to 20.. as we All Would agree our economy has jumped back 15 years.. I don't have the figures in front of me but I'm quite sure we've lost a minimum 30% of middle upper class that's been relegated to lower class incomes...
Soooo who's investing???
The Americans themselves CAN NOT PUSH it to 20.


You're absolutely correct.......as for where the money is coming from, everyone & their mother is trying to make money in this market but its not as many people as it was once because as you stated, a big percentage of the upper middle class has been lowered & they can't afford to invest big numbers like they once could......

From.reading about past stock market crashes, the multimillionaires/billionaires dump their stocks at the right time while the average middle class investor , etc....is standing there holding an empty bag.

When it looks too good to be true, it usually is & the stock market gets to these scenarios.

Even if you dump all your stocks/investments a year before a crash & you missed out on 9 months of crazy amounts of money, you still made good money compared to the other investors that rode the ship until it sank.
 

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The easiest answer to this most complicated question is. Where is the money coming from to push it to 20.. as we All Would agree our economy has jumped back 15 years.. I don't have the figures in front of me but I'm quite sure we've lost a minimum 30% of middle upper class that's been relegated to lower class incomes...
Soooo who's investing???
The Americans themselves CAN NOT PUSH it to 20.

You ever heard of the quant easing that has been going on for years now?
It is a train that's not stopping.

There was was supposed to have been a report circling a couple of weeks ago that pegged the central banks of the world to have around $27 TRILLION invested in the global markets.
 

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Its been a glorious 5.5 years.
Its sad all the nay sayers who stayed out during this entire amazing bull run missing out on all that money thinking the world is going to end every day.

One day these people will be right, but when they are it won't matter.

I went all in at 700 in late 2008 and its almost 2100 now.
Triple.

Im almost ready for a correction.
Looking for the first sign to pull out and let it crash so I can reenter again at a lower point with more leverage.
 

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You're absolutely correct.......as for where the money is coming from, everyone & their mother is trying to make money in this market but its not as many people as it was once because as you stated, a big percentage of the upper middle class has been lowered & they can't afford to invest big numbers like they once could......

From.reading about past stock market crashes, the multimillionaires/billionaires dump their stocks at the right time while the average middle class investor , etc....is standing there holding an empty bag.

When it looks too good to be true, it usually is & the stock market gets to these scenarios.

Even if you dump all your stocks/investments a year before a crash & you missed out on 9 months of crazy amounts of money, you still made good money compared to the other investors that rode the ship until it sank.

The big mistake the middle class always makes is they panic when the market crashes selling all there equities at the bottom then they get all excited when it hits new all time highs then they go full force at the top only to crash again to the bottom.

They invest ass backwards.

I can't tell you how many people I know that sold out all of there positions in the 670's when it hit bottom then they started putting it back in at 1500+.

Thats ass backwards.
 

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You're absolutely correct.......as for where the money is coming from, everyone & their mother is trying to make money in this market but its not as many people as it was once because as you stated, a big percentage of the upper middle class has been lowered & they can't afford to invest big numbers like they once could......

From.reading about past stock market crashes, the multimillionaires/billionaires dump their stocks at the right time while the average middle class investor , etc....is standing there holding an empty bag.

When it looks too good to be true, it usually is & the stock market gets to these scenarios.

Even if you dump all your stocks/investments a year before a crash & you missed out on 9 months of crazy amounts of money, you still made good money compared to the other investors that rode the ship until it sank.

The ship has never sunk in the history of the stock market not ever.
Not even during the great depression.

The mistake is selling at the bottom and not riding it out.
 

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You people are missing one glaring fact, the US dollar has been allowed to erode dramatically in recent years Vs other world currencies. The apparent rise of the US stock markets is almost completely wiped out when viewed in Euro terms for example. Try changing a dollar for a pound in London these days (or Canada or Japan or...)

The rise in the US markets is a well orchestrated illusion created by US monetary policy in recent years
 

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US equity markets are being propped up by cheap money and leverage. The Fed has distorted the yield curve, forcing savers into risk assets. This party will end at some point, but as long as the Fed is able to keep rates at artificial levels, equities will continue to melt up. The equity markets are more levered now than they were in 2008, margin debt levels are approaching $400B. You are already starting to see some cracks in the fixed income markets, which may be a prelude of things to come. High yield debt issuance has come to a screeching halt recently after over $300B of covenant light crap being unloaded on unsuspecting, yield chasing muppets in 2014. The fact that small caps have performed so poorly this year is also an indicator that we may be reaching the late innings of this game. Very few assets classes right now that are offering a good risk/reward trade-off. Emerging markets have been the place to be this year, after significantly lagging the developed markets in 2013. Gold appears to be range bound for the time being. I don't know that we see another 2008 type blowup any time soon, but I do feel that we will have a correction which tests the 1560 level on the S&P.
 

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