does the spread matter....

Willye · Jan 13, 2014

Was wondering if anyone researched what % of time the spread comes into play in the nba or cbb ... Example the nfl about 16% of the time so basically you just pick the winner

akphidelt · Jan 13, 2014

Willye said:
Was wondering if anyone researched what % of time the spread comes into play in the nba or cbb ... Example the nfl about 16% of the time so basically you just pick the winner

You know of a site with historical closing spreads? I can calculate it.

Willye · Jan 13, 2014

Its just something that came to mind i always bet moneylines om dogs for a % of wager but was thinking about

Willye · Jan 13, 2014

Ak ?? Not sure thanks though

Murphy8276 · Jan 14, 2014

I dont know the percent, but I do agree that you should always bet 10-20% on the dog ml the majority of the time you play a dog as it does have added benefit.

-murph

ixertot · Jan 14, 2014

17 year sample:

NBA spread comes in to play 19.5% of the time on all games

NBA favorites spread comes into play 27.5% of the time

Value in taking ML dogs if you are playing at standard juice

Little to no value in taking ML dogs if you are playing reduced juice

2DIMES · Jan 14, 2014

yes or there would be no such thing as a spread line.

DT32 · Jan 14, 2014

Home Dog
Date	(All)

Count of W/L CL		Column Labels
Row Labels	CL>50 0	L	P	W	Grand Total
Home Win				59	59
Home Loss		90	2	17	109
Grand Total		90	2	76	168

Here is this season's info. Hard to argue with the 17 year history above though. There were 17 times (out of 109 games - 17%) that a home dog covered when losing outright.