Does the Linemakers Early Line, Tell You Now, that Seattle is the Smart Way to GO?

[Swany]

It would just seem to appear to me that under the circumstances: - New England,.... a very, very big public betting team...... coming off a very impressive win; playing a Seattle team coming off a very unlikely win at home and considering everything else; are made 3 point underdogs by the linemakers;, who are cognizant of all this and are trying to anticipate the flow of the money so as to make the very best balanced line for the biggest betting game of the year. How can we not feel like there is excellent value on Seattle now that this line has moved steadily to NE -1 and up.

Maybe I'm putting to much belief in the proficiency of the sharps and linemakers, ..... (or ex-linemakers who are sharps now and sharps who are linemakers a lot of the time).....in their ability to hang excellent lines, but if they hung Seattle -3 after those 2 games and understanding everything that they do, then I believe that from that point of view ... today at this price.... is one of those rare occasions (a line shift like that under these circumstances) where a player can take advantage of a situation with an great opportunity to have an excellent payday

Just my 2 cents Good Luck to all.
really sorry guys it's hard to read and the English and grammar

 

[Cantpickem]

you're ok. I get the point. BOL tomorrow

 

[sendacash]

NE was not a 3 point dog, the consensus opener was more +1 dog. NE +1 now down to pick with 68% on the Pats, hard to put too much stock in the line moves thus far but maybe tomorrow will be more telling.

 

[TomandJerry]

I think I see Seattle -3 for a couple hours after the NE/INDIANA game. Anybody can post the line open and move by time?

 

[richporter]

the oddsmakers prior to the matchup even being determined if NE played SEA line was SEA -3 and opened around there before it was pounded down

 

[Favre4Vikings]

I understand and have much respect for your logic. I think and am rolling the same way, period.

 

[Biz]

NE was not a 3 point dog, the consensus opener was more +1 dog. NE +1 now down to pick with 68% on the Pats, hard to put too much stock in the line moves thus far but maybe tomorrow will be more telling.

This is simply not true.

Seattle was -2/-2.5 at most books before it immediately got bet down.

The OP makes a great point.

 

[Biz]

By: Marcus DiNitto | More Experts
Published: Jan 18, 2015




The point spread for Super Bowl XLIX moved 3.5 points at MGM Resorts on Sunday night, as the Patriots pulled away from the Colts to secure the AFC title.
The Las Vegas sports book operator, along with many others in town, opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites during the third quarter of New England’s 45-7 victory. By the late fourth quarter, the Pats were the 1-point favorite.
Live odds: Super Bowl lines and totals
“We opened (Seattle) -2.5, but I knew it was the wrong side, and I just kept dropping it down little by little even though we didn’t get much action on it,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP of race and sports, told The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts. “The more I was thinking about it, the more I thought New England should be favored, and the bulk of the action we took on it -- about $10,000 -- has been on the Patriots -1.”
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -2.5, but the shop was dealing the game at a pick ‘em less than a half-hour later, according to assistant manager Jeff Sherman’s Twitter feed.
William Hill U.S. moved to a pick ‘em on Sunday night as well, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Linemakers on Sporting News in a text message. The shop was offering an advanced line of Seattle -3 vs. New England last week.
Super Bowl XLIX is set for Sunday, Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.
That the spread moved immediately in New England’s direction is not a surprise. Early line moves are typically prompted by money from professional bettors. But with Vegas books packed with public bettors for Championship Sunday, the cumulative smaller wagers have a greater impact. Public bettors, of course, tend to base their wagers on what they most-recently witnessed -- and that was the Pats blowing out the Colts and the Seahawks coming away with a very fortunate win over the Packers.
“The books want to get to the right number as quickly as they can,” said The Linemakers’ Roberts. “This will be the biggest bet game of the year, where the public has more influence on the number than the wise guys. In most cases with the public, they go by what they saw last, and in this case, it was Seattle struggling at home and committing five turnovers and the Patriots rolling to a blowout win. I think the public will side with the Patriots early on.”
Early wagering on last year's Super Bowl was similar, as Seattle opened as a short favorite but Denver was bet to a favorite within a few hours on Championship Sunday.
Said Tony Miller at the Golden Nugget, “We haven’t taken any big action on the game yet, just a bunch of guys putting some small parlays on it before they head out of town.”
Miller said he believes Seattle -3 is the proper number, but he adjusted to what he saw in the market.
“With -2s being out there and -1.5 at the Mirage, I opened -2.5 just to be at the highest number, but the (odds) screen is jumping right now,” Miller said. “I’m looking at a few books down to -1 right now, so I’m moving to -2 and I’ll still be high.”
Five minutes later, Miller took a bet large enough (not a limit wager) to drop even further, to -1, to put him in line with most of the other books around town. But the number would continue to drop, and pick ‘em was the consensus line by the time the AFC game ended.
The total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.

 

[sunshine11]

go seahawks 27-24

 

[juice9]

Great post great point. Should be a great game and a nail bitter.

 

[Swany]

Going to take 2 team teaser ----Seattle and Under

Thanks guys for all this insight. What a day. For me it looks very,very good and I just feel compelled to go over this again especially for those who may be on the fence or just cant find a good betting proposition.
The more I look at this game i'm convinced that a two team 6 point teaser is an super, excellent play. Looking back
at that game, and imagining that i'm the linemaker trying to get a new, proper line out as early as I can for my books. I just finished watching the seahawks get by in their game and now the Pats early on. I decide to send out Seattle -3, but the Pats quickly are looking great again as they are starting to crush the colts and with the world watching; the money flows in and he and his books have to move it quickly accordingly.

Knowing that he must of felt the Seahawks were 4/5 points better then NE when he hung -3; a 6 point teaser, getting 7 points (in place of 1,2, or 3, could of been 1 or 2 if he felt the true power line was 4/5 when he sent out -3 in respect to the current circumstances) and adding 6 points to the inflated over to take the under for basically the same reason of an influential NE attitude,( for good intangible, situational reasons) which would include offence and points.

A two team 6 point teaser "Seattle and Under" should be an outstanding proposition

(and/or straight bet on Seattle, money line, or + points)

Good Luck again Guys in what you do today, and all your ventures forward

 

[Cantpickem]

Line history

101 New England @ 102 Seattle
02/01/15 03:30pm Pacific
Pacific Time	New England	Seattle
02/01/15 01:20:11pm	pk-102	pk-119
02/01/15 01:16:19pm	pk-110	pk-110
02/01/15 01:10:39pm	pk-106	pk-114
02/01/15 01:01:13pm	pk-110	pk-110
02/01/15 01:00:50pm	pk-109	pk-111
02/01/15 12:58:06pm	pk-110	pk-110
02/01/15 12:58:05pm	pk-115	pk-105
02/01/15 11:43:42am	+1-115	-1-105
02/01/15 11:43:40am	+1-110	-1-110
02/01/15 11:42:20am	pk-110	pk-110
02/01/15 11:42:19am	pk-115	pk-105
02/01/15 11:41:31am	+1-115	-1-105
02/01/15 11:41:29am	+1-110	-1-110
02/01/15 11:37:31am	pk-110	pk-110
02/01/15 11:37:29am	pk-117	pk-104
02/01/15 11:37:11am	+1-117	-1-104
02/01/15 11:37:02am	+1-115	-1-105
02/01/15 11:36:37am	+1-112	-1-108
02/01/15 10:42:46am	+1-110	-1-110
02/01/15 10:42:14am	+1-106	-1-114
02/01/15 09:12:58am	+1-105	-1-115
02/01/15 09:12:55am	+1-106	-1-114
02/01/15 12:06:51am	+1-110	-1-110
02/01/15 12:06:11am	+1-111	-1-109
01/31/15 04:47:36pm	+1-110	-1-110
01/31/15 04:47:03pm	+1-111	-1-109
01/31/15 03:11:16pm	+1-110	-1-110
01/31/15 02:11:51pm	+1-109	-1-111
01/31/15 11:22:04am	+1-110	-1-110
01/31/15 11:21:38am	+1-111	-1-109
01/31/15 08:43:07am	+1-115	-1-105
01/31/15 08:43:01am	+1-110	-1-110
01/31/15 08:42:45am	pk-110	pk-110
01/31/15 08:42:31am	pk-102	pk-119
01/30/15 03:49:20pm	pk-110	pk-110
01/30/15 03:48:55pm	pk-109	pk-111
01/29/15 05:30:40pm	pk-110	pk-110
01/29/15 05:29:22pm	pk-111	pk-109
01/28/15 11:09:54pm	pk-110	pk-110
01/28/15 06:31:21pm	pk-111	pk-109
01/28/15 09:24:42am	pk-110	pk-110
01/28/15 06:35:05am	-½+125	+½-145
01/27/15 05:43:31pm	pk-110	pk-110
01/27/15 05:43:30pm	pk-105	pk-115
01/27/15 05:42:57pm	-1-105	+1-115
01/27/15 12:25:53pm	-1-110	+1-110
01/27/15 11:24:58am	pk-110	pk-110
01/27/15 11:13:06am	-½+125	+½-145
01/27/15 11:09:36am	-½+130	+½-150
01/27/15 11:09:27am	-½+120	+½-140
01/27/15 11:09:13am	-½+130	+½-150
01/27/15 09:39:17am	pk-110	pk-110
01/26/15 08:41:00pm	-1-110	+1-110
01/25/15 10:54:51am	pk-110	pk-110
01/25/15 10:54:39am	pk-113	pk-107
01/22/15 04:20:24pm	pk-110	pk-110
01/22/15 04:17:44pm	+1-110	-1-110
01/21/15 06:17:09pm	pk-110	pk-110
01/21/15 06:17:01pm	-1-110	+1-110
01/21/15 05:56:31pm	pk-110	pk-110
01/21/15 05:56:25pm	-1-110	+1-110
01/21/15 05:56:03pm	-1-109	+1-111
01/21/15 11:55:40am	-1-110	+1-110
01/21/15 11:18:58am	pk-110	pk-110
01/21/15 11:18:57am	pk-102	pk-119
01/21/15 11:18:37am	-1-102	+1-119
01/20/15 02:08:53pm	-1-110	+1-110
01/20/15 10:18:24am	pk-110	pk-110
01/20/15 10:05:44am	pk-111	pk-109
01/20/15 02:25:59am	pk-110	pk-110
01/20/15 02:22:55am	pk-111	pk-109
01/19/15 01:31:36pm	pk-110	pk-110
01/19/15 09:45:01am	+1-110	-1-110
01/19/15 09:45:00am	+1+100	-1-121
01/19/15 09:44:52am	pk+100	pk-121
01/19/15 09:42:34am	pk-110	pk-110
01/19/15 09:42:33am	pk-113	pk-107
01/19/15 09:42:21am	+1-113	-1-107
01/18/15 06:30:38pm	+3-110	-3-110
01/18/15 06:29:55pm	+1-110
01/18/15 06:29:31pm	+3-110	-3-110