does money management systems work?

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or should i just use 5% of my BR and keep doing straight bets? and what kind of win % would you need for this to make a profit? im guessing around 52%?

also for right now i just do "imaginary" money. seeing in the long run if i should invest for real money
 

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or should i just use 5% of my BR and keep doing straight bets? and what kind of win % would you need for this to make a profit? im guessing around 52%?

also for right now i just do "imaginary" money. seeing in the long run if i should invest for real money

Welcome to the RX. If you use a percentage of your bankroll you should use 1% but go no higher then 2% in order to protect your bankroll against losing streaks or simply flat bet a dollar amount which is approximately 1% of your bankroll. In order to show a long term profit, you need a minimum of a 53% win percentage if you are playing at shops with 10% juice. If you use reduced juice shops, a slightly less win percentage is needed. Most important, you must remained very disciplined in your money management. This business is not a sprint but a marathon. Always think long term (years). Best of luck to you.
 

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Greetings Old Man Ted,

Last night I was reading an article online about the importance of TRGS (Team Record In Games Started) Stats. The main objective of the article was how a pitcher might leave in a close ball game (say a tie in the sixth) and the teams goes on to win, but the starting pitcher doesn't pick up the win. This stat reflects the "what if" factor granted that the pitcher would have earned the win instead of a no decision. The article indicated if you can find a large margin of difference between the win-loss record and the TRGS record for a particular pitcher, then some thought might be justified as to wager on that pitcher (team). Do you see merit in this stat and if so, can you recommend a website in which an individual can access this information.

John Boland
 

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John Boland

Greetings Old Man Ted,

Last night I was reading an article online about the importance of TRGS (Team Record In Games Started) Stats. The main objective of the article was how a pitcher might leave in a close ball game (say a tie in the sixth) and the teams goes on to win, but the starting pitcher doesn't pick up the win. This stat reflects the "what if" factor granted that the pitcher would have earned the win instead of a no decision. The article indicated if you can find a large margin of difference between the win-loss record and the TRGS record for a particular pitcher, then some thought might be justified as to wager on that pitcher (team). Do you see merit in this stat and if so, can you recommend a website in which an individual can access this information.

John Boland

I do see definite merit in this stat as throughout the MLB season, some pitchers keep their teams in the games and those games turn into wins for that particular pitcher more often then not even though the pitcher's record is not rewarded. TRGS is a very important tool. In fact, just the opposite is true as well. Some pitchers get no support all year long. An example was last year with Matt Cain of the Giants. Pitched great all year but got no support so his record reflected way too many loses. As to a site, one I use is www.espn.com and click on MLB and then game preview. The starting pitchers information for the last start is there, but if you click on the underline of the pitcher's name, it will bring up not only the last game but you can click on Game Log and it will show all the performances by the pitcher. Of course the box scores for those games are there as well. Good question. Best of luck.
 

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i was thinking of starting off with $100 as my bank. so i should just use about $2 a bet? when do i change it then, at around $120, which would be +20% increase?
 

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i was thinking of starting off with $100 as my bank. so i should just use about $2 a bet? when do i change it then, at around $120, which would be +20% increase?

If you have a book that will take $2 a bet, then yes do that. Plus, you are right on the money. You should increase or decrease when your bankroll either grows or shrinks 20%.
 

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The problems with money management is , not everyone puts enough cash in their account to begin with. So what happens when you bet 2% percent of your initial bankroll of say a 1000. You lose respect for money, cuz your wager is so small. 20 dollars a game don,t cut it. Plus if you have lost half of your initial 1000 invested , try getting back your $500 lost betting at $20 a crack. GL with that.
 

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what about 5% of bank, would you need a higher win % then?

No you don't need a higher win percentage but you are at greater risk of higher fluctuations in your bankroll. Think about it. You lose 4 bets and 20% of your bankroll is gone. I started in this business 38 years ago betting $10 per play and have built my bankroll to a point where now, most of my plays are four and sometimes even five figures. Anyone that tells you money management isn't important, doesn't know what they are talking about. Many people can pick winners, but I've seen some of the best, crash and burn because they had no money management plan or skill. Start slowly and don't get impatient. Once again, this business is a marathon (years) and not a sprint.
 

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k thanks for all the help guys. i really dont care if i start small as long as i play smart and dont feel like im doing dumb stuff
 

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No you don't need a higher win percentage but you are at greater risk of higher fluctuations in your bankroll. Think about it. You lose 4 bets and 20% of your bankroll is gone. I started in this business 38 years ago betting $10 per play and have built my bankroll to a point where now, most of my plays are four and sometimes even five figures. Anyone that tells you money management isn't important, doesn't know what they are talking about. Many people can pick winners, but I've seen some of the best, crash and burn because they had no money management plan or skill. Start slowly and don't get impatient. Once again, this business is a marathon (years) and not a sprint.

Are you saying that your playing with house money for 38 years. If you are, you are one of the very few who beat the odds. 38 years ago $10 would be comparable to $60 today. Holy Mackeral , congratulations if you pulled that off.Your are one of the very few.
 

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No you don't need a higher win percentage but you are at greater risk of higher fluctuations in your bankroll. Think about it. You lose 4 bets and 20% of your bankroll is gone. I started in this business 38 years ago betting $10 per play and have built my bankroll to a point where now, most of my plays are four and sometimes even five figures. Anyone that tells you money management isn't important, doesn't know what they are talking about. Many people can pick winners, but I've seen some of the best, crash and burn because they had no money management plan or skill. Start slowly and don't get impatient. Once again, this business is a marathon (years) and not a sprint.


Ted, Please give me the books that allow to bet four/five figures. I have couple books with low juice but limit only $500. Thanks
 

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Ted, Please give me the books that allow to bet four/five figures. I have couple books with low juice but limit only $500. Thanks

Most of our sponsors, they are listed above, take at least four figures on most normal wagers, i.e. sides, totals, halves, quarters, etc. As for five figures, books like Bookmaker take that level of action. I would recommend you click on any of our sponsors links above and review the site for wagering limits. Often times, you can call in a higher limit then an internet limit. Other times they are the same. Just depends on the book.
 

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or should i just use 5% of my BR and keep doing straight bets? and what kind of win % would you need for this to make a profit? im guessing around 52%?

also for right now i just do "imaginary" money. seeing in the long run if i should invest for real money

If you are playing a negative expectancy game ie craps, slots. roulette. a money management system will only forestall the inevitable long run results: you'll lose your money. If you insist on playing negative games, the short run is your friend. You got $200 dollars bet it all on the pass line, if you win walk away. There you've just beaten a negative game. The longer you stay at the table, the more negative chance has to catch you, and tap you out.

If you are playing a positive expectancy game ie sports betting in which you have shown a long term result of better than 52.4% your number one job would be to protect your bankroll and stay in the game. The long run is your friend and the short run your enemy. You would not want to put all your $200 dollars on any one game. If you tap out you can't take advantage of the positive expectancy in your favor. It would be a shame to lose the first bet and not be around for the next 9 bets that would guarantee you would walk away a winner.

Studies show that the correct bet size for a positive expectancy game is one that does not fluctuate.

 

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