Does following line movement is baseball work.

[rscl31]

I know it can in other sports. I was thinking of taking the opening line and then sometime during the day (to avoid the public steam) taking the closing line to try to see where the 'sharp' money is going. Is this effective?

 

[Fishhead]

Not NEARLY as effective of going against JOHN Q. PUBLIC in the NFL.

 

[rscl31]

Yeah it's so effective in the NFL and even in the NBA. That's why i was asking. I mean just looking at things right now it seems some money went against Boston and Houston were both bet down. I'll post what would be the plays later on today so i can track them

 

[Fishhead]

KEEP THIS IN MIND...

There are many sportsbooks in Vegas that are SATISFIED if they have a measly 1.5% hold on bases.

The NFL cannot get here soon enough for them.

 

[rscl31]

I'm sorry Fishhead can you explain that statement. I think I know what you're saying but really not sure. Are you implying that even some books may take a hit in baseball knowing it's coming back to them in the NFL?

 

[Fishhead]

What I am saying is, the NFL has MANY more squares betting it.

 

[TheGeneral+]

rscl31,

Pick a couple sharp books and run a trial. Let us know what you find.

Good luck

 

[rscl31]

Am I right in assuming Pinnacle is a sharp book? Additionally, should i disregard the Run Line b/c I'd imagine as the Totals are changed subsequently the run line should move as well. Common sense says the more runs scored the less of a chance of a two run game.

 

[Fishhead]

My personal advice to you.....following this for a week, month, or the whole year will really amount to no conclusive evidence.

This needs to be at least a 3 year study and probably more like ten.

Your best bet is to see what other people in this thread have to say about this that have experience betting bases for 10+ years.

I have the experience, but just never have investigated it that closely.

Hats off to you though if you feel you can do a little investigating and see what you come up with.

 

[rscl31]

Fishhead, what is your best advice for capping bases then? strictly matchups or another avenue? I also tend to fade the public most times, works best in NFL, College Football, NBA, College Basketball (in that order). NFL by far and away the most profitable.

 

[Fishhead]

rscl- Embarrassing to say, but I only basically tread water handicapping baseball......so you may find better answers from someone else.

My profits from bases come from scalping the sport.