Yea tried to google it and could not find anything.
Without breaking it down to 0 outs or 1 out I would say at least 40%
If there is a double play with zero outs and a runner scores from 3rd I am counting that.
Also if a batter leads off the inning with a triple and the first guy does not get him in but the next guy does that counts as a single event and not 2 separate events.
In that case that runner got counted for scoring with less then 2 outs from 3rd.
Also if a batter leads off the inning with a triple and the first guy does not get him in but the next guy does that counts as a single event and not 2 separate events.
In that case that runner got counted for scoring with less then 2 outs from 3rd.
The only "events" to you are innings in which a man is on 3rd with < 2outs. Can happen multiple times in an inning.
Other than just having the exact data, there is no way to do the math on this because so many situations that can arise.
This is from '08 and just single ABs.
[SIZE=-1]Runner on third, less than two outs -- MLB, 2008:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]
| [SIZE=-1]Opportunities[/SIZE] | [SIZE=-1]9,296[/SIZE] |
| [SIZE=-1]Driven in by Batter[/SIZE] | [SIZE=-1]5,156[/SIZE] |
| [SIZE=-1]Percentage[/SIZE] | [SIZE=-1]55.5%[/SIZE] |
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So if the guy is scoring 55% of the time with less than 2 outs per AB, we can probably assume he scored like 75-80% of the time before all 3 outs occur.
(.45)^2 (2 ABs) is 80% of the time they get the guy home. 3 ABs is 91.1% of the time but then with 2 outs I'm sure the odds go down for that AB significantly. You got double plays, forceouts that change the dynamics of the inning.
So even though I couldn't answer it, probably in the 75%-80%ish range. [/SIZE]
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Don't those stats already include if it gets to two outs? Because 55% feels pretty accurate to me. 70-80% feels too high.
Don't believe they do. They are from 2008 and the league avg BA is down to .250 now when it was .262 then so just on that alone the # will be slightly lower but this is where I pulled those numbers from.
http://www.billjamesonline.com/stats5/
[SIZE=-1]How often do major league hitters get that runner in? Thinking about it, the major league batting average is about .260, so it has to be at least that high. Then there's the sacrifice fly, the ground ball, the occasional squeeze bunt, even the bases-loaded walk or hit batsman. Can that push it up over 50%?[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]It turns out that the major league batting average with runners on third with less than two outs is .332 this year. It was .336 last year in that situation. That's pretty amazing. When you add in all the other factors, it does jump over 50% to 55.5%. Here are the totals this year.[/SIZE]
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