I just can't win a RL play.....its rediculous. I see alot of ppl play the RL when there is alot of Juice obviously, but do you ever play the RL on games in which the line is close. Every time I play them, or so it seems, the score ends with a one run lead or a loss!!! I am contemplating never playing one again!!
In general, I stopped betting baseball 2 seasons ago due to my complete inability to Capp sides. When the ML was -175 and above I would bet the favorite on the RL. I don't know how many freeking times the Dog would win straight up! RL, ML it didn't matter. The Dog would win big, the -1.5 RL did not matter. After 3 innings i would be behind 0-3 SU or -4.5 if you count the RL. The .5 never bit my ass, I was so far behind, betting -1 RL would not have helped.
It happened with such consistency, that I started to look at a system of fading myself. Time was as issue and I never got around to properly examining the error of my ways. I just stopped betting baseball all together.
In examining what I was doing wrong, I knew that I had to start with the amount of favorites that I bet in baseball; to many, probably an 8 to 2 ratio of Favs to Dogs or higher. I knew the answer was more Dogs, but never got around to developing an algorithm. On paper I was going to just bet Dogs and develop something from there but like i said time became a problem and I shelved the whole project.
One thing is for sure to be successful in baseball with the ML or RL you need to have a ratio favoring Dogs to Favs. You need to be betting more dogs than favs consistently or you will get your ass handed to you, gift wrapped.. with a thank you note.
GL Occam
