Does anyone else feel like the books are pricing us out of the market this year in the NHL?

[EVincent]

A few examples:

First, anyone playing vs Buffalo is like -300 and -400.......been ridiculous so far IMO this early. You see a few big ML's like this during the season but I dont recall so many that high the last couple of seasons this early.

Second, if you want to bet on any above average teams so far it seems like they are forcing you to lay -180 to -200 on every single team that is playing well right now......

Take today for example:

Boston -190
Pitt -180
Mon -165
Tor -200
Tbay -170
STL -180


Not sure there is value with any of these dogs other than Anaheim today, but these prices all season have been almost unbettable IMO.

Anyone else feel the same so far?

 

[VegasVic]

The obvious answer is, if you think you’re being priced out on favorites then the dogs should be offering value.

 

[VegasVic]

Why not Carolina at +180? Philadelphia at +155?

 

[Bourn]

I agree. I don't remmeber seeing such huge odds before. I'm thinking dogs are the way to go in hockey this year.

 

[Bourn]

Arizone -1.5 last night would have brought you +500

 

[VegasVic]

I'm thinking dogs are the way to go in hockey this year.

Always been the way.

 

[BZ]

Seems like big favs have been covering alot- anyone run numbers so far this year?

 

[scottcarter]

Why not Carolina at +180? Philadelphia at +155?

this


it depends how you look at shit. If you took Colombus +200 and Arizona at +220 last night,you'd he a little happier this morning.

also, if you took

11/15/2014 @ 10:15 AM

NHL

[1] CAROLINA +171

today, you might be also. Lots of game left I know but its 1-0 Canes.

 

[Bourn]

How many times in ALL sports do we see the last game of the night -200+ not cover? A lot!!!

 

[sherwood]

A few examples:

First, anyone playing vs Buffalo is like -300 and -400.......been ridiculous so far IMO this early. You see a few big ML's like this during the season but I dont recall so many that high the last couple of seasons this early.

Second, if you want to bet on any above average teams so far it seems like they are forcing you to lay -180 to -200 on every single team that is playing well right now......

Take today for example:

Boston -190
Pitt -180
Mon -165
Tor -200
Tbay -170
STL -180


Not sure there is value with any of these dogs other than Anaheim today, but these prices all season have been almost unbettable IMO.

Anyone else feel the same so far?

Buffalo loses every game. You think the books are going to give you a price of -140 against them? C'mon man. There is a ton of value on dogs and those games that are -180 and -170, you have the choice to play it in regulation at -110 or even less. You're a prime example of the public's obsession with favorites. Why not look for value in dogs? There has been a ton of value in playing dogs this year, just like there is every year. Change your mindset and start looking for value in dogs. For instance....Dallas has been a fav at home in 7 of 8 games this year. Their home record is 1-7. San Jose is 2-3 at home, Ducks are 5-4 at and they're usually a big price. The list goes on and on.

 

[Akillies]

just look for value, and a book with lower juice on hockey

 

[EVincent]

Buffalo loses every game. You think the books are going to give you a price of -140 against them? C'mon man. There is a ton of value on dogs and those games that are -180 and -170, you have the choice to play it in regulation at -110 or even less. You're a prime example of the public's obsession with favorites. Why not look for value in dogs? There has been a ton of value in playing dogs this year, just like there is every year. Change your mindset and start looking for value in dogs. For instance....Dallas has been a fav at home in 7 of 8 games this year. Their home record is 1-7. San Jose is 2-3 at home, Ducks are 5-4 at and they're usually a big price. The list goes on and on.

Easy big guy. I respect your opinion and especially all of your hockey insight here.

I've developed a system that has hit 60% the last two seasons in which I update it weekly with a set of "play on & fade" teams for the week. I don't play anything over -150, but I posed the question here because this year it seems like a lot of the teams meeting my parameters are being priced out of the system this year.

Now, while I hit 60% most of the teams I have to play are -120 to -150 so the inflated juice levels out my total plus units, but nonetheless its still profitable.

I dont give much credence to home field/ice advantage in baseball or hockey (only football and college hoops), but from what you shared, maybe I should start. Do you place a lot of emphasis on home/away ice based on records?

Also, from a personal point of view, I HATE losing bets in the shootout! Do you play 1st 60 or full game sides? I've always been torn with this.

Thanks for the response Sher.

 

[sherwood]

E.V. Assuming the shootout is a 50/50 shot, the equation becomes quite simple. If you are playing a favorite, play in regulation only and if you're playing the dog, you include OT. Again, if it's a 50/50 proposition, than over time playing favs in SO's will be a losing proposition while playing dogs will be a profitable one. Be torn no more, just follow that simple equation.

In terms of home ice, I always consider it when looking for value. My first glance is always on the home dog and I proceed from there but that's just me. Most teams in the NHL will finish above .500 at home and it's been that way forever. Best of luck EV.

 

[EVincent]

E.V. Assuming the shootout is a 50/50 shot, the equation becomes quite simple. If you are playing a favorite, play in regulation only and if you're playing the dog, you include OT. Again, if it's a 50/50 proposition, than over time playing favs in SO's will be a losing proposition while playing dogs will be a profitable one. Be torn no more, just follow that simple equation.

In terms of home ice, I always consider it when looking for value. My first glance is always on the home dog and I proceed from there but that's just me. Most teams in the NHL will finish above .500 at home and it's been that way forever. Best of luck EV.

Much appreciated Sherwood. Thanks.

I always enjoy these types of discussions. Not much of that around here anymore, but the few in hockey forum are as reliable and consistent as they come.