Does anyone correlate game-time temperature to run output?

qs185 · Apr 26, 2003

Just wondering if anyone actually has data regarding gametime temperatures and how it affects totals.

I know a lot of people who feel that temperature is important (colder = less runs scored), but then don't keep track, by temperature, of a team's output.

And, I feel, especially this time of year, when teams could be playing in cold weather for several games and then switching to warmer climates, or vice-versa, that this could help in determining totals.

Good Luck,
Bart

qs185 · Apr 30, 2003

Okay, since I seem to be getting a pretty universal, "no one does this", I am interested in hearing if people feel that this is something that would be worthwhile to track, or not.

Thanks,
Bart

raiders72001 · Apr 30, 2003

I definitely look at game time temp for both totals and sides. 35 degree weather definitely helps a guy with a 97 MPH fastball. I haven't been able to find any stats for temp and totals.

EvilDrunk · May 18, 2003

I think humidity is more important than temperature. Many people think that the elevation is what makes the ball fly at Coors Field when in fact the humidity is just as important.

DonMarco · May 18, 2003

bart

i have been looking into it a few years ago and couldn't find any conclusive rationale, except for a few stadiums (colorado, cubs, jays - open roof, zona - open roof, texas, and if i remember correctly sf )

it wasn't based only on temperature, but on humidity and winds as well.

sorry but i just can't find those numbers, and if i do, i will post them.

SixthSense · May 19, 2003

I'll complicate this even more. I'm not a weather guy but I believe "dew point" is much more important than humidity.

Before I posted this, I searched around the net to try and support this theory. It does appear the dew point is a more telling stat than humidity.

As far as the ball travelling farther when it is humid, I found this also on the net, which is interesting but also complicates things a little more.

"Strike two. I don't know who you've been listening to, but where I come from, baseball commentators frequently refer to the effect of weather on the likelihood of hitting the long ball. If you're playing in the open, a 10 MPH tailwind can add 30 feet to the range (and a similar headwind can deduct 30 feet). Obviously, the stands at major league ballparks act as a windbreak, but they don't eliminate the wind. Temperature is another factor, because hot air is less dense than cold air. Due to air density alone, a ball will go about 20 feet farther on a hot summer day of 90 degrees F than on a cold spring evening of 40 F. The temperature of the ball augments the effect (perhaps as much as doubling it), because warm balls are livelier (bouncier) than cold balls and so will go farther. Humidity is a complicating factor. Humid air is less dense than dry air, but on the other hand, high humidity makes the balls deader (less bouncy)."

corey · May 19, 2003

This doesn't make sense to me. If it's warmer I would expect the ball to be softer, thus when hit travelling less because of the cushion. Conversely colder should mean harder, and the ball going farther.

Not sure about humid air being less dense either...

raiders72001 · May 19, 2003

I use this ballpark website. It comes in handy. In some ballparks there's a huge difference between day and night games. In others the wind plays a huge factor. A ball that travels 400' at sea level travels 430' at Coors.

Ballparks

Shotgun · May 19, 2003

The ball flies out of Kauffman Stadium during day games (night also but not as much) in the summer. I also like the unders in night games of the California teams...the ball just doesn't carry much at night there.

I don't play a game only because of these circumstances, but certainly look for any excuse I can find to justify betting on them.

Revere14 · May 20, 2003

I use a very simple formula involving the barometric pressure, humidity, temperature, and wind readings. Then I adjust for the time of day and attendence (hey all those people in the stands generate a lot of body heat!), and combine this with the winning powerball numbers and that's how I get my picks.

In reality, here's an explanation of air density and the effect on baseball:

USA TODAY EXPLANATION

Revere14

yakmerchant · Jun 13, 2003

I spent too much time with this. Ball distance is a mostly a function of air density which is mostly a function of temperature and altitude. Humidity does affect this but not too much. But there is some evidence that at really high humidity levels, the ball become less "Bouncy". When it comes to humidity you will hear all kinds of stories from all kinds of sources. Tail and Head winds do affect ball distance traveled. But from all the research I've done. The most important affect is on the pitched ball. Breaking balls break more in higher air density and most importantly if there is a cross wind. For example a stiff cross wind from first to third (which is really hard to measure at field level) can make a huge difference. The right hander's breaking ball that normally breaks around 9 inches will now only break or 3. And if a left hander is throwing it can go from 9 to 15 and become unhittable. But without some serious research it's all for nothing. Because a 30mph east wind at one ball park means zero at field level. and at other parks it hits the stands and causes a wind the other direction in the park. So without access to field level at every park it means nothing. Needless to say I gave up.